A difficult, if not dramatic day on the financial markets begins with a sharp drop in Tokyo and Hong Kong (both down by 1,2%). Starting from Piazza Affari, victim of the sudden acceleration of the collapse of the political situation over the weekend.
Will it hold the 300 quota? Or will the spread go further? Fasten your seatbelts. The premises are inauspicious, and there are already those who are thinking of the arrival of a troika of inspectors (EU-ECB-IMF) in Rome, as has already happened in Athens. An extreme hypothesis, of course, but it is certain that Italy is once again the potential trigger of a euro crisis, with unfortunate repercussions for the European Union and, consequently, on the global recovery. A dramatic situation that will be reflected in the yields of shares and government bonds even if there will be plenty of sorties by optimists, in search of a buying opportunity, in the hope that this time the clash will be as violent as it is brief.
The delicate American situation contributes to complicate the already hot picture: tonight, for the first time in 17 years, the US Treasury will run dry. On Sunday morning, the House, with a Republican majority, conditioned the go-ahead for the financing of public spending on the one-year postponement of the health care reform. The Senate, with a Democratic majority, has already rejected the "blackmail" imposed by the right-wing Tea Party. Hence the paralysis: without parliamentary authorization the Treasury cannot draw on the Federal Reserve.
Military salaries were unanimously exempted from the squeeze on expenses.
CUCCHIANI HAS ALREADY GOODBYE…
Piazza Affari is called this morning to another test: the resignation of Enrico Cucchiani from the leadership of Banca Intesa, sanctioned yesterday evening in a meeting between the manager (liquidated, as per contract with 3,8 million euros) with the president of the councils of surveillance, Giovanni Bazoli, and that of management, Gian Maria Gros-Pietro.
In his place was appointed Carlo Messina, 51, number one of the Banca dei Territori a few months ago. Francesco Micheli also joins the board.
Intesa Sanpaolo -5,6% lost 5.6% during the week, the worst stock on the Ftse/Mib.
The hostility of the "system bank" towards a more international style of management was fatal for Cucchiani, his search for institutional investors to strengthen the bank's capital (and consequently reduce the weight of the Foundations), despite being solicited by the markets .
Even more, probably, the decision to switch 800 million of the Tassara exposure from the item loans under restructuring to non-performing loans. It is no coincidence that today the first task of the new CEO concerns the conclusion of the agreement between Romain Zaleski's Tassara and the banks exposed for 2,2 billion, among which Intesa stands out (1 billion of which only 0,5 billion covered by guarantees). The agreement provides for the conversion of 650 million of debt into equity instruments and a new extension (perhaps to 2015 or 2017) for the sale of the assets. For the first time, the majority of the board will be in the hands of independent directors and not Zalesky.
AND FOR BERNABE' THE PASS IS APPROACHING
During the week, Telecom Italia brought home a daring +2%, built on a series of heart-stopping ups and downs, after the passage of the majority stake in Telco, the controlling holding company of the telephone company, into Spanish hands.
On Thursday 3 October, barring surprises that are always possible, Franco Bernabé will present himself as resigning to the board of directors of the former incumbent of the telecommunications companies. At the origin of the decision, the opposition to the capital increase he advocated. In pole position to replace him is Massimo Sarmi, the current CEO of the Post Office.
Due to the political turbulence, it seems difficult to amend the takeover bid law by the end of the year, as does the extension of the golden power to the TLCs.
BERNANKE'S SUCCESSOR THIS WEEK
The week was negative for all equity markets, which look back on three consecutive positive octaves punctuated by an innumerable series of records.
On Wall Street, thanks to the heated debate on the deficit, the S&P500 index lost a total of 1,22% (slightly less than the Dow Jones). The Nasdaq rose 0,19%.
According to the Financial Times, Barack Obama is likely to nominate the new Fed president in the middle of the week, before leaving for Asia. Favorite remains Janet Yellen.
In South America, the Brazilian Stock Exchange got away with a drop of half a point. In Asia, the Nikkei was virtually unchanged last week (-0,04%).
MADRID AND ATHENS THE BEST IN EUROPE
In Europe, the key theme of the next ECB directorate on 2 October, possible effects of the Italian crisis aside, will be the lack of growth in liquidity that does not reach businesses (-2% credits in August): the launch of a new Ltro, more difficult to intervene on interest rates. Among other things, the verdict of the Constitutional Court of Karlsruhe is approaching.
There was also a slight decrease in Paris -0,4%, and Frankfurt -0,2%. Greece has benefited from Angela Merkel's electoral victory and the prospect of a government in Berlin that includes the Social Democrats while waiting for a softer attitude towards the periphery.
As an exception, even before the collapse of the executive, Piazza Affari paid hard for the uncertainties of the political situation with the worst loss: FtseMib -1,8%.
MILAN, ONLY 9 BLUE CHIPS IN POSITIVE
The two best blue chips were Autogrill +8% and Fiat Industrial +4%. Both are affected by imminent extraordinary operations. From 30 October Autogrill will list “World Duty Free” on Piazza Affari, while from Monday XNUMX September CNH Industrial will be born from the ashes of Fiat Industrial (also listed on Wall Street).
Telecom Italia brings home a daring +2%, built with a series of heart-stopping ups and downs, after the passage of the majority stake in Telco, the controlling holding company of the telephone company, into Spanish hands.
Positive balance also for Prysmian, Mediobanca (sale of Telco stake with capital gain) and Enel (acceleration of asset sales plan), all with a gain of just under 2%, Finmeccanica +1,8% (prospects of sale of Ansaldo).
MEDIASET AND MEDIOLANUM UNDER FIRE
The painful notes came from the banks: Banca Popolare Milano -4,9% (delays in the transformation from a cooperative), Banco Popolare -3%.
Among financials, sales also hit Mediolanum -3,3%. Mediaset -4,5%, inevitably paid for the uncertainties about its owner's political future, but let's not forget that the share price has more than doubled since the beginning of 2013.
The sales hit oil, after the agreement on Syria and above all the surprise openings of the Iranian government. Eni -2% (net of the 55 cents dividend), Saipem -2,7%, Tenaris -4,7%.
Still in the queue is GTech -5,6%, sold due to concerns that the government will have to resort to tried and tested systems (let's also add excise duties on petrol) to find the resources that are lacking to avoid the VAT increase.
Fiat -3,2% took an opposite direction to that of Fiat Industrial. The tough dispute with Veba over Chrysler's share continues to weigh on the stock.
