On the days of 9-10 June the Prime Minister, Matteo Renzi, will be visiting the Socialist Republic of Vietnam. As an economic context, Vietnam has established itself in recent years as the new low-cost manufacturing hub of the Far East. The long-term growth prospects are positive, even if the risk of macroeconomic instability in the near term, due to high inflation and low hard currency reserves, despite the government maneuvers to remedy the macroeconomic imbalances caused by the drop in demand. The government is busy drafting a new constitution, which provides for the reform of state enterprises and theintroduction of principles aimed at greater transparency and liberalization of the economic system. Unfortunately, iThe financial sector has a limited degree of development and a high level of fragmentation, whose performance it has worsened in the last two years, given the slowness of the restructuring plan launched three years ago. The criticalities of the banking system, together with the uncertainties related to the economy, have led Moody's to carry out a country downgraded to B2 rating in September 2012.
The depreciation of the local currency in 2011 favored an improvement in the balance of trade: in 2012 a drop in domestic demand and a slowdown in imports led to a surplus in the current account balance. These two phenomena, combined with the constant remittances from abroad, have favored one partial rebuilding of reserves in hard currency which, according to IMF estimates published by SACE, in February 2013 are useful to cover about 2,3 months of imports (equal to about 28,6 billion dollars). The IMF itself estimates that the current account balance will remain positive over the next two years, albeit with a slight contraction (expected at 3,3% of GDP for 2014).
The country's main trading partners are the USA, Japan and China and Singapore. Government interventions to remedy the macroeconomic imbalances have brought some positive results, as demonstrated by the data on FDI (in 2012 equal to approximately 8,4 billion, +12% compared to 2011). Le Italian exports to Vietnam contracted by about 10% in 2012, while imports from the Asian partner are growing (+44%). The level of Italian investments is very low: Direct investment in assets in 2011 amounted to 191 million dollars, most of which in manufacturing. Although the operational context encourage foreign investment, corruption and bureaucracy are the main obstacle for international investors. In particular, to weigh is the lack of infrastructure, especially as regards energy and roads, sectors where the government is adopting the Public Private Partnership tool to finance the necessary works. Opportunities are also to be found in the instrumental mechanics sector, since Vietnamese manufacturing industry needs new technologies.
