Contrasted start to the week for price lists. At the center of attention is the jump in oil, which arrived overnight at its highest level since November 2014. Brent futures rise by 1,2%, to 75,8 dollars a barrel: volumes are well above average of the last month. The tension rises in view of the X hour: on Friday, in fact, Washington will have to decide whether or not to denounce the Iranian nuclear deal. Thanks to the end of the multi-year embargo, today Iran manages to produce over 2,5 million barrels a day, double what it was pumping when the sanctions were in force. The main customers are India and China.
CHINESE BAGS RISE AFTER THE NO TO THE USA
China's stock markets are up on Wall Street's heels. Hong Kong +0,7%, CSI300 index of Shanghai and Shenzhen stock exchanges +1,2%.
Japan's financial market has reopened after the holidays: the Nikkei index is down by 0,2%, the yen strengthens against the dollar at 109. Korea's financial market is closed.
The Indian stock market rose slightly (BSE Sensex index +0,2%) while the Indian rupee dropped to its lowest level in 15 months against the dollar, at 67,1.
The failure of Steve Mnuchin's mission in Beijing does not matter. The US secretary of state has asked China to reduce its trade surplus by 200 billion dollars. The Chinese reply was an "unfair" request. Crucial week also for the renewal of the NAFTA agreement.
ARGENTINA RAISES RATES TO 40%
The US currency is stable against the euro at 1,1973. But the rise of the dollar puts pressure on emerging markets Argentina raised rates to 40% on Friday in order to stop the slide of the peso. The Turkish lira is also under fire.
TIM RISP AND MEDIASET UNDER THE SPOTLIGHT
Spotlight on Tim, who will hold the first board of the Elliott era today. Indeed, as advocated by Minister Carlo Calenda, of one that "can become a real public company, protected from conflicts of interest with shareholders and capable of accelerating the separation of the network".
Today the new top management will propose the appointment as chairman of Fulvio Conti, former CEO and general manager of Enel. Barring surprises, the board will attribute the powers to CEO Amos Genish, who after the vote received trust and certificates of esteem from both the winners and the losers. However, all the choices will be made by the directors "independently", assure sources close to Elliott.
Piazza Affari said goodbye on Friday the “new” Tim with an increase of 2,1%. Particular attention was paid to Tim Savings (+2,8%): Elliott's program includes the conversion of all securities into ordinary shares.
Mediaset should also be followed (+2,8% on Friday). After the defeat suffered in Telecom, Vivendi could change its strategy: the interest in betting on the Biscione to create a TV-TLC multimedia pole has now faded.
QUARTERLY, TREASURY AUCTIONS AND RAINING COUPONS
The Piazza Affari calendar includes a large number of corporate appointments. The accounts of Snam, Intesa, Leonardo, Bper and Fincantieri will be communicated on Tuesday. The following day will be the turn of Enel, Poste Italiane, Bpm and Unicredit. Thursday will be the turn of Eni, Ubi and A2A. The week will end with the quarterly of Monte dei Paschi di Siena and Mediobanca.
A busy schedule also for the mid-month Treasury auctions. On Thursday 10 May, the Treasury will issue the annual BTP, while the following day it will be the turn of the BTP issue. Finally, this morning, a large patrol (25 companies in all) of small cap companies in Piazza Affari detached the dividend.
COFFEE, THE NESTLÉ- STARBUCKS WORLD AXIS IS BORN
The week opens with the coffee pact. Nestlé will pay 7,15 billion dollars as part of a global alliance with Starbucks which, worldwide, will use the blends of the Swiss multinational.
BUFFETT FILL UP WITH APPLE
Corporate America celebrated one of its most awaited rituals over the weekend. Thousands of shareholders made the now traditional trip to Omaha, Nebraska, for the assembly of Berkshire Hathaway, the company of Warren Buffett, 87, who reassured the shareholders about the future: "Our strategy is destined to last over time , even when there would be no more me and Charlie”, or Charles Munger, 94 years old. The portfolio, 300 billion, is invested in stocks and bonds among which, among the latest purchases, stands out a robust increase in the controlled stake in Apple (value 44 billion dollars) which gave wings to the iPhone title on Friday.
Buffett said that share prices are also stretched due to the interest of investment banks "present in 99% of M&A operations". Trump's tax reform, in addition to reducing the group's taxes, also resulted in budget adjustments, this time negative, of 1,1 billion dollars.
GOOGLE LEADER OF ARTIFICIAL INTELLIGENCE
Google I/O, the annual conference of search engine developers and authors of applications related to the Google system, will also be held during the week. Last year, the strategic importance assumed by Artificial Intelligence emerged from the meeting.
A new wave of quarterly earners is expected, including 40 of the S&P 500 companies. These include: Walt Disney, Marriott, Electronic Arts, TripAdvisor, 21st Century Fox, and Nvidia.
The most awaited macro statistic concerns the trend in consumer prices. On Friday, data on the labor market confirmed the fears of a progressive slowdown in the economy. In this regard, Johanna Kyrklund of Schroeders points out that "if the United States economy were to continue to grow in the second quarter of the year, the current phase of expansion would equalize and exceed the second longest historical streak (106 months between 1961 and 1969 )".
In Europe, the closure of the London Stock Exchange today for holidays should be noted. The most important economic data of the day is that concerning factory orders in Germany, a precious index for understanding how serious the slowdown in economic activity in the Old Continent is.
On the monetary policy front, the key event of the week will be the Bank of England meeting: rates are expected to remain unchanged for now. The request for an increase, advanced by the minority of the board at the previous meeting, was reversed in the face of the drop in growth in the United Kingdom, to its lowest level in five years, to the Italian level: 1,5%.
