It is precisely industry, the flagship of the Italian economy (and not only that), that drives the recovery. This is certified by the periodic Congiunturaref, edited by Ref Ricerche, according to which the data relating to the trend of the industry in the exit phase from the lockdowns adopted by various countries reveal a more lively recovery than expected. “This – according to the report elaborated by economists Marina Barbini, Fedele De Novellis, Valentina Ferraris and Luca Paolazzi – is a positive surprise, considering the widespread fears that production interruptions in some countries could send global value chains into crisis, in which the activity of each company is closely linked to the operations of the other links in the supply chain”.
However, the recovery has not been uniform across countries. Indeed, it is precisely the Italian industry, which had been among the hardest hit in the weeks of the lockdown, the one that has recorded a more marked recovery. The indicators relating to the August-September trends also confirm the ongoing improvement. Policies have had a decisive influence not only the timing of the interruption and restart of production, but also the strategy adopted by companies to face the crisis: the massive use of the Cig led to an immediate adjustment of the demand for labor compared to the lower levels of production. The result is that employment levels have been protected.
Furthermore, according to Ref, the contraction in hours worked, together with the fall in interest rates and energy costs, has all in all made it possible to safeguard profitability levels in most industrial sectors. Therefore, even from the point of view of corporate financial statements, 2020, even with all of them the difficulties and uncertainties that still weigh on the scenario, is showing relative resilience, especially when compared with the severe recessions of the recent past. As in usual economic cycles, industry is leading the recovery, in the sense that it will transmit expansionary impulses to other sectors as well. In this case even more, given that many tertiary sectors are still penalized by the measures to combat the epidemic (tourism, air travel, catering and public establishments, and some segments of the retail trade).
