There is no crisis that holds, the luxury goods market continues to grow worldwide: from 173 billion euros in 2010 it rose in 2011, according to estimates, to 191 billion (+10%). With a real boom, starting from November, of online sales. And the prospects for the next three years are for further development, only slightly slower. This year it is expected to reach 201-203 billion of total value (+6-7%) which will rise to 216-218 in 2013 (+7-8%) to reach 2014-235 billion (+240-8%) in 10 XNUMX%).
This is the scenario outlined by Claudia D'Arpizio, partner of Bain & Co and analyst specializing in the Luxury goods and Fashion practice sector, presented today at the usual Observatory created by Altagamma. China's driving role will also be confirmed for the next few years, a market that is expected to grow at a rate of 18-22% this year, closely followed by the so-called Asia Pacific (+14-16% in 2012). For the other geographical areas, growth stops at single digits: the Americas (especially Brazil and Mexico, in addition to the United States) travel between 5 and 7%, Europe does not go beyond 2-4% and Japan is struggling still picking up momentum (+0-2%). Local consumption in Europe remains a question mark, i.e. those not linked to purchases made by tourists: the main unknown factor is Spain and Italy: here there are strong signs of a slowdown in consumption, again in the luxury sector, in particular in multi-brand distribution channels; only the influx of Chinese and Asians continues to boost sales in tourist cities. A phenomenon that is also recorded in the shops of European countries with a strong influx of tourists, especially from Asia.
In the meantime, the attention of the big luxury brands for India is growing, where high-end consumers are on the increase and above all the interest in Western trends is increasing, despite the presence of rooted local traditions. For this year, sales are expected to grow by 15-20% to exceed the value of one billion euro.
But what sells the most? Certainly in the front row are accessories (bags, shoes, etc.) which last year covered 26% of the total 191 billion. The same share is represented by clothing, however down compared to 27% in 2010. Perfumes and cosmetics also dropped slightly, from 22 to 21%, while jewelery and watches rose from 20 to 21%. The remaining 3% is represented by the so-called table art. But what wins over all is "absolute" luxury, i.e. the highest end of this already high segment, and here the accessories take the lion's share. At the expense of clothing which is increasingly subjected to competition from ready-to-wear fashion, as demonstrated by the very high investments that fast fashion brands (Zara and H&M in primis) are making to open large stores in prestigious areas. A clear sign of the will to compete with luxury brands.
And while Asia is set to increase its market share from the current 19% to 27% in 2014, at the expense of Japan (which goes from 10 to 8%), the Americas (from 30 to 27%) and of Europe (from 36 to 32%), other markets are opening up, such as South Africa, or small "pearls" are emerging such as Azerbaijan and Kazakhstan. All attracted by the siren of luxury.
