We are witnessing a moment of transition, in which fundamentalists try to keep their privileges as best they can. "It is normal that the most extremist parties try to take advantage of this situation to increase their strength among the population". One way to convince the masses to follow them, so the president of the Institute of International Affairs (IAI), Stefano Silvestri, interprets the killing of the American ambassador Chris Stevens and his three compatriots which took place yesterday in Benghazi. To FIRSTonline he explained what the challenges of the new democratically elected governments are, "stability and long-term political orientation".
FIRSTonline – Chairman, it appears that the attack is attributable to the fundamentalist group Amsa Al-Sharia, linked to Al Qaeda. Can we think of a reorganization of the terrorist group?
Silvestri – Al Qaeda has always remained more or less organized. It is divided into detached groups that self-organized with a summit quite distant from the local segments. It is certainly still very active, especially in Africa.
FIRSTonline – Can the Libyan attack be considered an isolated case or will a period of terror begin again?
Silvestri – As with all terrorist attacks, there is an element of planning and an element of opportunity. The number of Al Qaeda attacks in less stable countries or countries where there is an ongoing civil war, as in the case of Syria, tends to increase but does not reach the intensity observed in Iraq a few years ago. In some countries, a strengthening of fundamentalist movements can be observed, for example in Mali. But it is difficult to generalize, it must be analyzed on a case-by-case basis.
FIRSTonline – How do you assess Egypt's reaction, should we fear a domino effect?
Silvestri – No. Certainly the fundamentalist parties will try to take advantage of this situation to increase their strength in the population, rekindling anti-West sentiments. The real problem is being able to obtain stability and understand the political orientation of these countries in the long run.
FIRSTonline – Is the attack on Ambassador Stevens an attack on the Arab Spring?
Silvestri – Yes, it can be seen as an attempt to twist the Arab Spring for the purposes of Al Qaeda by trying to turn it into a confrontation with the West rather than the old authoritarian regimes.
FIRSTonline – Do you foresee that there will be economic consequences after what happened?
Silvestri – I hope not. The Libyan government has no interest in going down this road so I don't think there will be any drastic economic consequences, not immediately. But if fundamentalism and terrorism are not kept under control in the long run, the effects on trade relations and the economy could be serious. But that doesn't seem like a very realistic scenario to me.
FIRSTonline – How will the American electoral campaign change?
Silvestri – So far Republicans have not blamed President Barack Obama on security but they are likely to start to. It is therefore possible to expect that to avoid these accusations Obama will attempt some attacks against Al Qaeda. We may see more spectacular actions by the White House in these final months before the election.
