Chaos in Libya. Prime Minister Ali Zeidan was taken to an undisclosed location and released hours later. Kidnapped, according to some. Arrested, according to the militias of the "Chamber of Revolutionaries of Libya", a group that the government itself had hired to guarantee security in Tripoli. The accusation, it seems, is of excessive softness with the USA, which over the weekend had captured in the Libyan capital Al Libi, considered by the Americans one of the leaders of one of the most devastating al Qaeda operations, the 1998 attacks against the US embassies of Nairobi and Dar es Saalam.
Stefano Silvestri, scientific advisor of the Istituto Affari Internazionali, explains to Firstonline what is happening in the North African country and what the effects of instability will be on international politics and the economy. “Libya – he observes – is in the hands of a whole series of armed groups, which are partly subsidized by what remains of the state. The ex-rebels who have claimed responsibility for the kidnapping or arrest of the prime minister are a group that normally works with the interior and defense ministries, but which is naturally also autonomous. In his time, he had accused the prime minister of having collaborated with the Americans for the kidnapping of Al Libi, the terrorist whom the USA captured in Tripoli and who they want to prosecute. The Ministry of Justice had previously said that there were no indictments or warrants against the prime minister, but the problem is that in Libya the normal functioning of the administration - even of justice - is completely vague. Basically, they can say whatever they want. We will then see in practice what will happen. It is not clear whether this group wants to negotiate something with the prime minister, or whether it is a matter of a power struggle and an attempt to destabilize the current government. At the moment all hypotheses are open.
Meanwhile, after the Al Libi operation, the Americans moved 200 marines from Spain to the Sigonella NATO base in Sicily. What is the West doing and what can it do?
The West should avoid making the situation worse, for example by making kidnappings, as in the case of Al Libi. I would say that, otherwise, the West can do quite little. He can try to intervene, but on a specific case. He can hear what these groups want and then see if he can negotiate for a third party. But I don't think Westerners are the most suitable in this case.
Prime Minister Ali Zeidan was accused of collaborating with Washington. Does it only have to do with the capture of Al Libi or is there something else?
In the longer term, one of this prime minister's main requests was for help to eliminate Libya's huge surplus of weapons which, in his view, not only fuels these groups, but also a large trade in all directions, especially Syria, the Sahara, Mali and Niger. A trade which is controlled by some of these gangs. It could be that this seizure is related to the protection of these criminal businesses. And in the longer term it is certainly in our interest to try to work together to end this trade.
In addition to the interest in stopping the arms trade, Italy also has other economic and raw material interests. Change something?
Not much should happen. Yes, there have been threats to oil and gas supplies, but basically it is everyone's interest – not just ours, also the Libyans' – that supplies continue as normal and that contracts are respected. The problem, perhaps, could arise for any new explorations, because there it is necessary to understand who controls the territory. There is, at this moment, a government in Libya that has authority over all areas of the country, especially the desert areas.
Yet the oil wells have been shut down for two months.
I think this is a minor issue. The general effect is only on the price of oil, which remains high – Brent is around 110-115 dollars a barrel – while it should be cheaper, given that there is a significant overproduction. The price is not going down precisely because of these tensions, not because of scarcity.
Is what is happening in Libya now comparable to the repercussions that occurred in some countries of the Arab Spring, such as Egypt which after Hosni Mubarak saw Mohamed Morsi fall at the hands of the army, or is it something different?
I'd say it's a different situation. In other countries, the state structure, for better or worse, held its own and survived political upheavals and changes of government. In Libya, on the other hand, what little state there was has practically dissolved. Today we are witnessing a grotesque situation: armed gangs in the pay of so-called ministries suddenly invade the same ministries because they want to get paid more or because they haven't been paid. They invade the parliamentary assembly. They get a prime minister. From neighborhood to neighborhood they control cities, airports, highways, without the central government being able to impose a single authority. The real problem is that Libya is not even heading towards a sort of civil war, like Syria, but is heading towards a basically anarchic situation. And this is very dangerous, not so much for oil or gas, but because this fuels the instability of all of North Africa.
Libya like Somalia?
Yes, it's like a kind of Somali situation is being created. Although fortunately still at a preliminary stage.
