The Country Report of atradius published in December, highlights the fact that, in the second quarter of 2012, the recession of the Portuguese economy, which has been warmer for some time, has started to accelerate again, due to the collapse of domestic demand (-7,6% on an annual basis) and the European situation which has had repercussions on exports. THE private consumption they decreased by 5,9%, where the most negative indicator regarded the automotive market (-26,3% on an annual basis). At the same time, i public consumption (-3,9%), in particular as regards investments in transport and equipment (-18,7%). The only positive signals come from exports (+4,3%), albeit to a lesser extent than in the first four months of last year (+7,9%), given that it was the European demand for goods and services itself that decreased, particularly the Spanish one , until growth contracted by 3,4% in the third quarter of 2012. The unemployment rate it continued to increase, reaching 15,8% in the third quarter, while inflation (2,9%) recorded levels above the European average due to the price of oil and commodities. The general price level however, it is expected to drop in 2013, as a consequence of the collapse in purchasing power.
Due to the weak economic performance, during the first half of 2012 are decrease tax revenues (-2% on an annual basis), especially on the business side (-15,6%), with considerable repercussions on social security. The approval of the budget for the year 2013 foresees a considerable increase in the tax burden, accompanied by a reduction in pension and healthcare expenditure of 2,7 billion euros, with the aim of reducing the budget deficit to 4,5%. The question remains whether this will be sustainable, given the slowdown in economic performance and the public debt expected at 127% of GDP during the 2013.
In fact, GDP is expected to fall by 2,9% at the end of 2012, followed by a further 1,9% this year, due to the reciprocal contraction of private consumption and industrial production. While, precisely because of the uncertainty and the lack of deeper and more timely structural reforms to revive the country's competitiveness, the investments in the country they will contract by a further 6,5% year-on-year, despite relative growth in exports, albeit at a slower pace. In this scenario, the continuous decline in consumption, investment and jobs on the one hand, and the increase in insolvencies on the other, it will be increasingly difficult for businesses to access bank credit and the construction, furniture, plant, metallurgy and iron and steel, electronics and household appliances sectors will be most affected.
