Positive start to the financial week. Tokyo rises (+0,6%) to its highest level since 2007, even if Abenomics is proceeding with some difficulty: in the fourth quarter, GDP rose by 0,6%, less than expected. 2014 closed with an economic upturn of around 2,2%, less than expected (+3,7%). For the optimists, it counts that Japan has come out of the recession, managing to digest the VAT increase without damage. But only thanks to exports, replies a report by Credit Suisse: internal consumption is in hiding, also because wages do not increase.
The other Asian stock exchanges were flat or with slight gains on a day conditioned by the holiday of the US price lists, stopped for the President's day holiday.
Eyes focused, therefore, on Brussels where it meets the Eurogroup to examine the Greece case: Greek Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras reiterated that his country "needs time for reforms" not "new loans". On the other hand, if the European partners appear to be in favor of granting more time, no one intends to cut Greece's debt. Mario Draghi, president of the ECB, cut short the speculation on the exit of Athens: "They are a waste of time".
Among the market movers of the day, it is worth noting the trade balance of the Eurozone last December. In terms of central banks, the publication of the minutes of the Fed (Wednesday) and, above all, the novelty of the minutes of the last meeting of the ECB, made public for the first time, stand out during the week. The euro opens the week just above 1,14 against the dollar. Oil settles at the levels of Friday, a day of strong increases: Brent is traded at 61,25 dollars, the highest since the beginning of 2015.
SAIPEM OPENS THE OIL REPORT SEASON
It's the week of accounts for energy stocks. An appointment that coincides with the alarm for the advance of Isis in Libya, already the main supplier of crude oil for Italy, today in the crosshairs of the caliphate. Today the curtain rises on the budget Saipem (-1,3% on Friday) recovering last week on the wave of orders arriving from Kashagan.
Wednesday will be the turn ofEni (Friday +2,3% to 15,84 euros, on the highest since last December 4th). One out of four analysts surveyed by Bloomberg (41 experts) suggests buying the stock, with an average target price of €15,50. On the same day there will be the results of Tenaris (+0,6% on Friday). Waiting for confirmation of the relaunch of Saras: + 10% in the last two sessions; since the beginning of January the increase is 30%. The positive outlook for the refining and power generation business in the 2015-16 period and the truce agreement in Eastern Ukraine contributed to the rally.
Equita reiterated the Buy recommendation, drastically raising the target price to 1,30 euro from the previous 1,0 euro. Among the most eagerly awaited quarterly reports of the week, that of Telecom Italia, scheduled for Thursday, stands out.
TEST FOR GENERALI AFTER TEAR WITH S&P
There is curiosity about the market reaction to the split between Generali and the Standard & Poor's agency. The company, awarded on Friday by JP Morgan (0verweight rating, target price from 20 to 21 euros, the highest target price since 2008 for American analysts) asked the company to withdraw the rating due, says a note, "of the inflexibility of the criteria adopted by Standard & Poor's”.
“The automatic link to the sovereign rating applied by S&P does not recognize the high level of diversification of the group, nor the benefits of its broad geographical presence”, concludes the press release, recalling that Generali “will continue to be rated by three major agencies, i.e. say Moody's (Baa1), Fitch (A-) and AM Best (A)”. On 12 December 2014, S&P downgraded Generali to BBB+ from A-, as a result of the downgrade of Italy's rating to BBB-.
BANZAI LANDS AT PIAZZA AFFARI. THE OVS OFFER AT THE LAUNCH
The first freshman of 2015 arrives today in Piazza Affari: Banzai, the first national e-commerce operator and player in vertical publishing with portals such as ePrice, Private Balances and Giallo Zafferano. The offer price of the securities was set at 6,75 euro for a capitalization of 274 million euro. The company led by Paolo Ainio, one of the pioneers of the Italian web, and founder of the company in 2005, will proceed with the placement of eight million shares in a capital increase for a total value of 54 million. During the placement phase, requests amounted to 13,4 million shares. On the other hand, part of the shares linked to Ainio and Arepo Bz, a vehicle headed by Matteo Arpe's private equity firm Sator, will not be sold, which will thus remain just over 20% of the shareholding since 28 prior to the IPO. Once the placement is complete, the free float will be equal to 47,28% of the share capital, or 49,44% if the greenshoe option is exercised.
In the nine months ended last September 30 Banzai achieved 120,27 million revenues with a negative operating result of 2,76 million, a loss of 2,62 million and financial debt of 5,24 million. Its network collects over 18 million unique users per month and has 440 employees and collaborators.
Today, the placement of the shares in the retail sector begins Ovs spa, the clothing company born as an offshoot of Coin. A total of 101 million ordinary shares of the company will be able to be subscribed, representing 44,5% of the capital. 10% of the offer is addressed to the general public, the rest to institutions. The proceeds from the listing (457 million) will be used to reduce the super debt that has grown with the succession of private equity funds: at the time of the listing, 335 million will be used to reduce the old debt while new credit lines have been agreed credit for a total of 475 million.
THE BAGS START AGAIN FROM THE HIGHEST. SPREAD AT 125
The markets archive a glorious week, marked by numerous records. Progress of between 1% and 2% is recorded for stock exchanges in the euro area. Piazza Affari (+2,3% on Friday) reached the highest levels since last September. The gain for the week is 2,1%. The performance since the beginning of 2015 is +11,5% and is in line with that of Paris and Frankfurt. The Parisian Cac 40 (+1,9% the weekly balance) reached its maximum since 2008. The Dax of Frankfurt (+1,4%) touched its historical highs. The Athens Stock Exchange amassed a 12% gain, discounting a positive solution to the negotiations between Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras and the Eurogroup.
The Japanese Stock Exchange ended the week with a total +1,5%. The Nikkei (17.913) is moving on the highs of the last 5 years. Wall Street closed on a high note: the 'S&P500 index (2.096 points) revisited the previous historical highs positioned at 2.093 points. Thanks also to Apple's push, the Nasdaq (4.893 points) returned to the levels of March 2000, in the glorious days of the internet bubble. The Dow Jones (18.019) has broken the wall of 18 points. The rise was favored by the recovery of oil prices on the wave of the sharp increases in crude oil: Brent (61,20 usd): +6% overall. The price has reached its highest level since the beginning of 2015.
SEVEN BANKS IN THE TOP TEN OF MILAN
At the end of the week dedicated to bank accounts, there are seven bank stocks in the top ten of Piazza Affari. Beyond the performances, the propellant for the rise comes from the numerous innovations arriving from the laboratory of reforms. The reform of the Popolari is advancing, and the bad bank finally seems even closer. Furthermore, the positive contribution comes from the signs of recovery in Italy as it exits the recession.
The best performance is by Mount Paschi (+14,2%) which, after the news of the Treasury's entry into the capital, eliminated the losses accumulated since the beginning of the year, despite the massive losses and the prospect of a capital increase of 3 billion.
Shines Understanding: +8,9% thanks to the quarterly results and the increase in the dividend. B. Pop. Milan (+ 61%) confirmed as the best blue chip since the beginning of the year (+50%). Well too UBI Banca + 4,8% Banco Popolare +4,6% and Bper + 3,8%. Mediobanca +3,3% after the quarterly accounts, despite the exit from the capital of Groupama which sold its 4,9%.
CARS, FCA RECORD IN RENAULT'S WAKE
Major movements in the automotive sector, the sector most sensitive to recovery, under the impetus of Renault which, after the results announced on Thursday morning, achieved an increase of more than 14%. In the spotlight, Wednesday 18, the accounts of Peugeot. It follows closelyFiat Chrysler: +4,6%, to new highs since 2000. Since January, the stock has accumulated a gain of around 30%. Cnh Industrial (+3,8%) indirectly benefited from the rebound in crude oil and the expected suspension of sanctions against Russia.
