In a day of nervous waiting, especially marked by the Hollande-Merkel conversation and since the evolution of the Greek crisis, the euro has moved laterally until the crack of dawn.
All 7.25, after the publication of data on French consumer prices, the single currency regained ground reaching its level 1,2843, but have been the numbers on the German GDP to relaunch the euro - albeit timidly - towards the 1,29 threshold, broken in recent days. In Berlin, on an annual basis, GDP increased by 1,7%, and by 0,5% in the first quarter of 2012. More than expected and enough to make the Eur/Usd cross gain another 26 cents, with the currency of the old continent sitting at 1,2869.
At this point the party seems over: it is the Italian numbers and the sharp decline of the Ftse Mib that depress the exchange rate again. L'Istat communicate that the Italian GDP it's worse than expected, decreasing in first quarter by 0,8% on a quarterly basis, and by 1,3% on an annual basis. This is the worst start to the year since the 2009 crash.
At this point, the euro quickly returns to the downside in the zone 1,2848 mid-morning.
Statistics too Call on the confidence of German institutional investors they go into the red: the latest measurement marks a vertical collapse from the previous one +13,1 to -2,4 today.
The euro is not particularly affected by the data, since at 11 the aggregate on the European GDP marks a stagnant growth, better than -0,2% expected and sufficient to counter the synthetic on German investors.
At this point, the continental currency is floating on the same levels reached in mid-morning, around 1,2850.
All 14.30 a wall of American statistics, which will end at 22.30, will be able to significantly move the single currency downwards, if a moderate optimism on the American front is added to the stalemate on Greece, and a not too optimistic judgment of the markets on the outcome of the Berlin meeting.
Among the most important US data are the Empire index on manufacturing, the annual consumer price index, but also retail sales, in addition to the publication of the monthly Redbook. Inventories, the NAHB index on the real estate market, oil and diesel stocks close the long series.
On the front euro/pound, the European currency appears more decidedly bullish than the euro/dollar cross. The ascent is also fueled by the data on the London balance of trade, which scores, on a monthly basis, a liabilities of £8,6 billion, down £0,2 billion on expectations. The pound appears to be depreciating steadily and the euro returns to the 0,80 zone by mid-morning.
