Covid-19 will not survive the summer, at least in Italy. It's the math that says it. According to the National Order of Actuaries, the category of statistical experts capable of making forecasts and determining the future trend of variables (especially demographic and economic-financial), by analyzing the current trends of contagion and hospitalizations, it is conceivable that the emergency health care (certainly not the economic one...) will return before the end of the summer, around the middle of July, with the number of hospitalizations in intensive care which will tend to zero as early as the end of May.
Two months after the start of the health emergency and with the country gradually comes out of the lockdown, the actuaries therefore offer the result of their statistical-actuarial reading of the Covid-19 phenomenon as a constructive contribution and support as rational as possible to the forecast of a medium-term scenario. With a premise: “It is necessary to be aware – the note recommends – that absolute certainty and homogeneity on the data are not taken for granted a priori, in particular on the number of cases and the number of deaths. At the moment the results are these, with the hope that the behavior of individuals and the safety measures can prevent a return of the epidemic to worrying levels".
Here are some of the most interesting data that emerged:
– 84% of deaths from Covid-19 it concerns people aged 70 and over, over 95% aged 60 and over. Higher incidence of deaths for men (about 65%) than for women (about 35%). From the point of view of the number of cases, however, the incidence is distributed almost equally between males and females;
– The incidence of the phenomenon is rather limited in the Centre-South;
– In Italy there were 4.100 people in intensive therapy a month ago, today there are 1.300;
– The Coronavirus phenomenon is worldwide, affects about 180 countries;
– Until a few days ago we had 15% of the cases and 25% of the deaths recorded in the world in Italy; 10 days ago they were 8,5% and 17,5%; today we are at 6,1% and 12%. A further drop is likely in the next few days.
– Actuaries believe that Italy, apart from China and South Korea, is the first country to have actually started the descent. All the others, discounting "intervention" delays of between 7 and 30/40 days, are experiencing a process that is still ascending, or in a few cases, are at the "peak".
“Although aware that the analysis of numbers is not enough to solve all the problems related to the health emergency – he commented Giampaolo Crenca, President of the National Council of Actuaries – we intend to provide a careful reading of the phenomenon, albeit only from the point of view of numbers, so that it can be useful to those who have to make decisions both from a contingent and preventive perspective. This is why we are ready to put our skills at the service of the country".
