The Trise is only the tip of a very large iceberg called the "stability law". In addition to establishing a new tax with an exotic name that effectively replaces the Imu, merging costs for waste management (Tare) and road maintenance (tasi), the bill provides for interventions in almost all sectors: taxation, first of all , but also pensions, energy requalification, public employment and much more.
The maneuver - explained Prime Minister Enrico Letta - aims to "reduce taxes for families, workers and businesses". According to what was announced by the Prime Minister, "over the three-year period 2014-2016 the tax burden will drop from 44,3% to 43,3%".
Banks and credit deductibility
The first to smile, however, could be credit institutions, but also insurance companies and other intermediaries in the sector. Thanks to new rules on faster tax deductibility for write-downs and loan losses, banks could see their profits grow by 7% in 2014 and 5% in 2015. Translated into euros: one billion more profits for the first nine Italian institutes in two years.
The estimate is by Mediobanca securities. According to analysts from Piazzetta Cuccia, Bper and Creval, which have a more problematic situation on the credit front, would be the banks most interested (+20% in 2014). More modest effects for Intesa San Paolo (+6%), Unicredit (+5%) and Credem (+3%).
According to the economists of Banca Imi, Unicredit will have a 2013 tax benefit of 271 million euros, Mps of 101 million, Ubi of 45 million and Banco Popolare of 48 million.
Today, credit losses are deductible over 18 years above a deductible equal to 0,3% of the total credit portfolio. With the new law, they will be able to be discharged in 5 years.
Pensions
The solidarity contribution for golden pensions has disappeared, while the adjustment to inflation of those with an amount three times higher than the minimum treatment remains. Periphrasis which, translated into euros, today means a monthly allowance of 1443 euros.
Il Sole 24 Ore did the calculations and found that the new system is penalizing compared to the pre-reform rules of 2011. In detail, at least 5% of the annual check will be lost in three years anyway.
Some practical examples. Retirees who at the end of 2011 received a monthly allowance of up to 1405,05 euros, did not suffer any loss in purchasing power in the two-year period 2012/2013, thanks to the full adjustment with respect to recorded inflation.
Retirees who, on the other hand, enjoyed an allowance of 1500 euros in 2011 (an amount three times higher than the minimum treatment), have so far had an annual loss of 1013 euros. A sum that they will not be able to recover, otherwise the positive effects on public finances will be nullified. In 2016 – due to the 2014 stability law – they will collect 1068 euros less than the provisions of the pre-reform legislation. A cut of 4,9%. And the losses increase as the pension increases.
Warranty clause
The bill also includes a sword of Damocles: the guarantee clause. If from 2015 the expected cost savings are not seen, the Government will have to put its hand back to the tax authorities, with interventions on the front of discounts and concessions, but also on that of excise duties and taxes.
In detail, there could be linear cuts to the endowments of individual ministries. In the first drafts of the provision, there is talk of 3 billion in 2015, 7 billion in 2016 and 10 billion in 2017.
