Even for the right-wing government chaired by Giorgia Meloni, the need to abandon the rhetoric of electoral promises and come to terms with reality soon arose. Even with all the mitigating factors due to the limited time available, the Meloni maneuver is characterized by two decisive aspects: on the one hand the caution from the point of view of maintaining financial balance in the wake of the orthodoxy preached by Brussels and above all wanted by Investors who have to buy the bonds of our debt, and on the other give little impact of the measures for system change and thus to accelerate the growth of our economy. In short, we have a Meloni government which has tended to reassure the markets and international partners on respect for financial balances, however, at the same time showing the weakness of the right-wing doctrine on the management of the economy and on what must be done to improve productivity and the functioning of a truly competitive market, the only way to trigger a real growth.
Meloni Budget Law: a first step towards social equity
Surely President Meloni and the ministers who spoke at the press conference insisted on the fact that this budget is only the first step of a broader project, which will have to take place over the entire legislature, aimed at changing the characteristics of our system. For the moment, only a few signals have been given on the running direction that the new majority wants to follow. In particular, the president expressly mentioned the "growth“ between the two priority objectives of the manoeuvre, the second being that of social justice, particularly important in this moment of serious crisis due to the dear energy and of the highest inflation.
Objectively, in this second aspect, nothing more could be done. Over a third of the entire 35 billion budget is dedicated to combating the dear energy in addition to the abundant resources allocated for the family, for the reduction of tax wedge and for pensions. And yet the resources for high energy costs will only allow intervention for the first quarter of next year, and therefore we run the risk of having a very large potential budget gap within a few months.
The vision that the new government wants to accredit about its political "revolution" emerges in a contradictory way from the measures that have only been hinted at so far. In fact, the major novelty focuses on the change in basic income, a change that will take place in two stages. The first, transitional, provides for a reduction to 8 months for those who have the possibility of work, while the second is postponed to next year when a comprehensive income reform will come into effect, dividing poverty support from unemployment benefits. There is no further information and therefore we will see in the coming months.
Meloni Budget Law: on pensions yielding to Salvini, gifts on flat tax and cash cap
On pensions there is nothing definite except the yielding at pressure from Salvini with a quota of 103 and with an incentive for those who decide to stay at work. But the final objective is not made explicit and it is not clear how the balance of the INPS budget will be taken into account.
Then there are at least two measures that contradict the president's statement that there are no gifts to this or that category or to this or that party. And it's about the Flat tax and the raising of the cash cap. It is not clear what purpose the latter could serve if the aim would be to stimulate the growth of the economy and not only that of thetax evasion, while the Flat tax seems like a gift to a small category of VAT numbers. In fact by releasing it from one comprehensive reform of the tax levy (promised but whose contours are not known), it cannot be said that it is capable of contributing to an acceleration of overall growth.
The Meloni Budget Law: prudent, but where is the growth?
Ultimately it must be said calmly that this maneuver is really prudent, in the sense that it shouldn't do damage to the land of the financial balances. For the rest, the Government will have to give much more demonstrations of what it intends to do, what reforms to pursue not only in economics but also on Public Administration and Justice, and above all on what Minister Salvini will want to do (if he is not distracted by other political initiatives) on starting work in the infrastructure which are the heart of the Pnrr, i.e. the plan which, if well implemented, could avoid a severe recession in our economy.
