The Fed's push has already petered out. The markets, after the euphoria following the decisions of the central bank, are once again coming to terms with the usual problems: the weakness of the Chinese economy, the drop in crude oil and other raw materials, the deflation lurking in most of the economies.
Against this backdrop, the Stock Exchanges are about to experience a day dominated by complex technical deadlines: in Milan too it is the Friday of the “three witches”, when the options for the last quarter (and for the last month) must be settled. Contracts worth 1.100 billion dollars are at stake on Wall Street, an all-time record.
US stocks close significantly lower: S&P 500 -1,5% to 2.041 points (still well above 1.900 points, the threshold at which an avalanche of 670 billion in sales would be triggered), Dow Jones -1,43%, Nasdaq - 1,43%.
Apple (-2,1%) is under fire, due to fears of a slowdown in purchases in China, and oil. Exxon drops 1,5%, Chevron -3,1%. The Bloomberg commodity index (a basket that includes a little bit of everything from natural gas to coffee) has fallen to 16-year lows.
The rising dollar weighs on commodities. The US currency slows against the euro, traded at 1,0843, but rises against other currencies, starting with the yuan. The dollar index rises by 1,4%. Gold loses 1,6% to 1054 dollars an ounce, close to the lows of the last 6 years.
CHILE AND MEXICO RAISE RATES, YUAN STILL DOWN
The world adjusts to the advance of the dollar. The Yuan exchange rate drops again for the tenth day in a row. Meanwhile Chile and Mexico raised rates, adapting to the Fed's moves to avoid capital outflows. Rates on the Hong Kong dollar, pegged to the US currency, also rose. Surprisingly, however, Taiwan has cut the cost of money. The Argentine peso drops by 30% after the announcement of the devaluation decided by President Mauricio Macri.
Wall Street's performance was reflected this morning on Asian stock markets. Tokyo, where the meeting of the Central Bank ended without major news, fell by 0,2%. The Bank of Japan has made qualitative changes: the purchases will also include bonds with a maturity of more than ten years and units in real estate funds. In addition, the component of ETF purchases is increased, including those that track the Tokyo Stock Exchange index.
Hong Kong -0,3%. Chinese listings are also down: Shanghai -0,3% despite a timid awakening of the real estate market.
EUROPE, SHARES RISE. BONDS DOWN
The recovery of stock exchanges from the lows reached before the Fed's decisions continued in Europe. However, a red start is expected this morning in line with Asia and Wall Street. Futures report London -17 bps, Paris -25 bps, Frankfurt -86 bps. Milan advanced by 1,48%, held back in the final by the performance of the US Stock Exchanges and by the drop in crude oil.
Yesterday the most effervescent market was Frankfurt (+2,57%). Paris +1,14%, London +0,68%. Madrid, on the eve of the elections, gains 1,72%. Stocks go up and bonds go down: the yield on 10-year BTPs goes up to 1,63% (-6 basis points). The spread between ten-year BTPs and Bunds was stable at 102 basis points.
IMI: IN 2016 MILAN +16%. 12 TITLES IN THE SHOWCASE
It's time for predictions and resolutions for the new year. Banca Imi is optimistic about Piazza Affari: in 2016 the increase could reach 13%, thanks to a series of factors: the stability of the political framework, greater visibility on profits for 2016-17, expectations of consolidation, especially among banks, high dividends yields.
Favorite stocks include Atlantia, Autogrill, Pop. Milan, Ei Towers, Fiat Chrysler Automobiles, Finmeccanica, Hera, Poste Italiane, Prysmian, Safilo, Salini Impregilo and Unipol.
THE FED IS GOOD FOR FCA, BEST BLUE CHIP
Among the industrialists, the leap of Fiat Chrysler stands out, yesterday's best blue chip with an increase of 4,2%, to 12,88 euros. The stock benefits from the Fed's vote of confidence on the US economy, where, at this stage, the group realizes a large part of the margins.
In three sessions, the stock rose by 10%, largely recovering from Monday's plunge (-5%). Prysmian also performed well (+2,58%) which communicated a new order in Oman for an underground cable system for the transmission of high voltage electricity.
UTILITIES WELL, VERSALIS UNKNOWN ON ENI
The energy trend (WTI oil below 35 dollars) also influenced the session of Piazza Affari. The oil companies slow down in the final in line with the news arriving from the US.
Eni unchanged on the day of the Board which, stated CEO Claudio Descalzi, did not have the sale of Versalis on the agenda. However, Descalzi confirmed the negotiation for the sale to the Sk Capital Partenrs fund, interested in taking over 70% of the assets. “But he is not excluded – he added – that in the future the negotiations will be extended to others”.
The drop in crude weighs more on Tenaris (-0,6%) and Saipem (-2,62%). The electrical sector is more tonic. Enel CEO Francesco Starace said yesterday that the company has already met its targets at the end of 2015.
Utilities did well, driven by HSBC's positive opinion on Snam (+3,07%, target price at 4,3 euro from 4, confirmed reduction) and on Terna (+1,2%, at 5,2 from 5 euro, confirmed buy).
FLY TELECOM. AFTER GOVERNANCE BROADBAND IN THE FIRST PLACE
Telecom Italia still in strong evidence (+3%) at the top of the European sector index. The funds promise battle against the decision of the shareholders' meeting to extend the board to Vivendi representatives. But what moves the market on the day of the first Board of Directors enlarged to include Vivendi is the bet that, once the dominance of the French group on governance has been ratified, we can see an acceleration of the ultra-broadband plan, which the CEO also spoke about French shareholder, and other extraordinary transactions that could create value.
Yesterday Claudio Costamagna, illustrating the new strategic plan of the CDP, hinted at a possible entry of Cassa Depositi e Prestiti into the company's capital.
ALEXANDRIA STILL WEIGHTS ON THE MPS BUDGET
Positive day for the banks, which move in line with the European sector index. The exception is Monte Paschi (-0,83%), due to the possibility that the Bank will record a negative tax effect of 130 million from the revision of the 2014 financial statements, linked to the changes to the accounting of Alexandria requested by Consob.
Unicredit advances by +1,2%. The institute does not need a capital increase because it is able to generate enough to meet the objectives of the three-year plan and has already made provisions equal to 12 cents per share for the possible distribution of the dividend on 2015. He said the CEO Federico Ghizzoni in the press conference following yesterday's board meeting, the last one of the current year.
Intesa (+1,2%), Pop.Milano (+2,3%) and Mediobanca (+2%) were also positive. Insurance companies did well: Generali +2%, UnipolSai +0,1% and Cattolica +1%.
POSTS UP TOWARDS FTSE MIB
Poste Italiane +2,6% to 7,095, after the third consecutive increase back over the psychological threshold of 7 euros. From 21 December next, the stock will take the place of Ansaldo StS in the FtseMib index, which brings together the top 40 blue chips of Piazza Affari.
Beni Stabili up more than 6% after the announcement of the finalization of the sale of a property in Rome. The stock, according to Equita, is trading at a discount of around 12% on the 2015 NAV.
