July confirmed that the nadir of the recession has passed. But the slack have led to one second wave in the second part of the month (or a continuation of the first…, the distinction does not matter) both in Europe in that Japan and Australia, while new cases of Covid-19 negli Use and Latin america, As well as in India.
Meanwhile the more timely indicators (the PMI indices) confirm the cyclical improvements already seen a May and June. Improvements which, it should be reiterated, simply mean that we are climbing out of the ravine where the economy fell, with thehem of the pre-virus still far away. With the Covid-19 rearing its head climbing can only get harder.
"Traveling with hope is better than arriving", says an old saying (more succinctly, according to Giuseppe Ungaretti, "The goal is to leave"). But the virus blocked mobility, and the enormous induced by travel and its surroundings has hit labor-intensive sectors (tourism), putting another mortgage about the difficulty of growing up.
Le Forecasts macroeconomics come and go in direct contact with the infections – a variable, this one, which does not appear in the economists' toolbox. "We are doing everything possible, we will try to do the impossible, we are gearing up for miracles", the forecasters, after enlisting virologists and epidemiologists. But for now, we have to predict for the day...
The agreement for the Recovery Fund (o Next Generation US) is excellent news, both because it shows that, when theEurope it moves, the whole is more than the sum of the parts; and because – and this affects theItaly – the debt by issuing (750 billion euros, about 6% of EU GDP) It will be a debt of the European Unionnot of individual nations. Even if Italy will contribute one day (one distant day…) to the repayment installments, this massive support will never be part of the Italian public debt.
Inflation from signs of awakening, more evident for the raw materials and oil, which for the prices at best before date and production. The dynamics of the seconds, in fact, is still below zero, and that of the former is below 1% (apart from the China, as befits a country that has withstood the impact of the virus better than the others). How many fear that the currency created with both hands in this epochal crisis will end up stoke the fire of inflation, they will have to sit on the river bank and wait…
I long rates I'm downhill (light) in America and Germany and decrease (in a more marked way) also in Italy, for the reasons stated above (lo spread fell below 150). For the real rates the story is different. Thanks to higher inflation Use and a sharp slowdown in prices in Germany, US real rates have fallen and German real rates have risen, reaching the same level, which hasn't happened since 2014. The fact remains, already reaffirmed in the previous ones Lancet, that real rates should be even lower, given the heavy minus signs in the GDP dynamics on both sides of the Atlantic.
The cancellation of the spread in real rates between States United e Germany is one of the reasons for the weakness of the dollaralready predicted in the past Lancet, and which has recently increased. The other reason lies in the comparative dynamics of the European and American economies: the indicators point out a little more less worse (sorry for the semantic contortion) in the Vecchio continent compared to New.
The exchange with the yuan has fallen steadily below 7: here too – and even more than in Europe – the growth differential. But the dollar is weakened against all major currencies, indicating that there is a US reason for demerit; a reason, that is, that goes beyond the merits of others and that concerns the tarnishing of political leadership American.
Compared to last month there have been no changes regarding i stock markets and shelter goods. THE Bags, like Voltaire's Candide or Eleanor Porter's Pollyanna, believe in the best of possible outcomes, and are excited by every flurry of possible vaccines. THE'gold it breaks historical records and welcomes “refugees” who fear the worst possible outcome. Go figures, as they say in English…
