New attacks in Germany and desire for revenge in Erdogan's Turkey, democratic despot. The geopolitical situation does not bode well on the eve of Donald Trump's investiture as Republican candidate in the White House. However, the situation does not disturb the financial markets too much, supported in Europe by the purchases of the ECB and on Wall Street by the profits arriving from US banks. And so, awaiting the first data from the German economy after Brexit this morning, calm reigns over the stock markets.
Tokyo marks a slight gain (+0,5%) on reopening after the long weekend. The market, fresh from the leap (+9,2%) is looking at the next measures to relaunch the economy: a package of fiscal and monetary stimuli is expected. Nintendo's march continues: +11,1% this morning. The title has more than doubled (+116,8%) since the presentation of Pokemon go.
The slowdown in oil (Brent this morning at 46,82 dollars a barrel) is reflected in the other Asian lists. Weak Shanghai and Shenzhen. The yuan fell below the psychological barrier of 6,7 against the dollar yesterday.
FLY BANK OF AMERICA, THUD OF NETFLIX
Meanwhile, without jerks, Wall Street continues its upward march to the sound of records. New all-time high for both the S&P 500 index (+0,24%) and the Dow Jones (+0,09%). The Nasdaq (+0,52%) rises to 5.055,7 points. The market is driven by the profits of the big banks: yesterday it was the turn of Bank of America, +3,3% after the quarterly accounts.
It rises after the IBM Stock Exchange (+2,5% after the accounts): profit improves but, despite the recent acquisitions, turnover continues to fall (-2,7%) down from 17 consecutive quarters. Netflix thud (-14,5%): second-quarter streaming growth was lower than forecasts.
FLAT MILAN: SPOTLIGHT ON THE GERMAN ZEW TODAY
A slightly lower opening is looming for the European lists, in line with yesterday's trend. However, the situation should liven up after the morning's release of the Zew survey on German confidence, which should give a snapshot of the shock effect of the British 'no' to the European Union. Milan, after hitting a low of 16.602 points, closed up 0,08% at 16.763 points.
A positive start to the week for the Italian secondary school. Paris (-0,34%), Frankfurt (-0,04%) and Madrid (-0,08%) are also in negative territory. The exception is London (+0,39%), supported by the offer of 24,3 billion pounds from the Japanese Softbank for Arm holding, a jewel of British technology.
Türkiye: THE COLLAPSE OF THE STOCK EXCHANGE DOES NOT WEIGHT ON ITALIAN STOCKS
In the spotlight is Turkey, grappling with the repression ordered by Prime Minister Erdogan after the attempted coup. The Istanbul Stock Exchange suffered a 7,1% loss, but the Turkish lira, buoyed by Central Bank purchases, recovered 1,7% from last Friday's landslide (-5,1%). Emerging currencies also recovered, dragged down by the effects of the failed coup: the South African rand recovered 2,1%, the Mexican peso 0,6%.
The reactions of the stocks most involved with Turkey, the tenth market for Italian exports, were modest in Piazza Affari: little move Astaldi, Unicredit + 1,8% (through the subsidiary Yapi Kredi which contributes 15% to consolidated profits), Snam (increased uncertainty about the visibility of the Tap project), Fiat Chrysler (present through Tofas), Dea Capital (Migros is 11% of the NAV) and Sabaf (10% of revenues and 10 million invested in the plant in Turkey). More negative is Cementir (30% of the estimated 2016 Ebitda in Turkey), which drops 2,4%.
CAIRO BRAKES AFTER THE VICTORY, BUT ASSUMES ALL THE POWERS IN RCS
After the battle for control of Corriere della Sera, the stocks involved in the duel deflated: Cairo Communications lost 5,9%, while RCS Mediagroup dropped by 3,2%. “There is nothing more habitual than reading a newspaper – declared Urbano Cairo – even a graphic revision creates disturbance. What I think I'm doing is that the fewer people who realize I've arrived the better, or better: they must realize it because the newspaper is richer and gives more answers to the need for information".
The Piedmontese publisher has obtained 48,8% of the shares and the rival consortium of Investindustrial has announced that it is withdrawing from the takeover bid. "In the event that all the shares in the competing tender offer (12,9% of the capital) migrate to my offer, my stake in Cairo Communication would be diluted to 47,91%," Cairo said. In recent days, the publisher had specified that, in the event that he fell below 50% of his company, "he would have carried out a RAB (reverse accelerated bookbuilding) of up to 5% of the capital". Finally, according to Kepler Cheuvreux, despite the potential dilution from the capital increase, the impact of the deal on 2018 EPS is highly positive for Cairo Communications: EPS will rise from +29 to +35%.
STM SHINES ON THE WAVE OF ARM: +43%
Masayoshi Son, the leading pyrotechnician of Japan's Softbank, has launched a takeover bid on Arm holding of Cambridge, the jewel of British technology leader in chip design, whose processor together with graphics technology are already used by Samsung, Huawei and Apple for its own microchips. It is the right company, claims the Japanese tycoon of Korean origin, to project the production of the Internet of Things into the future. Hence the indecent offer: £24,32 billion, 1.700 pence per share, a 43% jump.
Less than a month ago, the founder of SoftBank, Masayoshi Son, abandoned plans to retire, thus ousting what was to be his heir, former Google executive Nikesh Arora. Son, known as "Masa," had announced he would stay on to both develop Sprint and complete the transformation of SoftBank into a tech investment powerhouse. Stm is making progress in the European sector (+2,1%). Dialog Semiconductor, Ams and Infineon were up by 3,3%, 3,4% and 2,1% respectively.
TELECOM BOUNCES: THE ECB BUYS BONDS
Telecom Italia closed yesterday up 3,2%, at 0,6940 euro, the best blue chip on Piazza Affari. Mediobanca analysts have promoted the stock to a "new top pick" in the TMT (Telecom, Media, Tech) segment, a stock to focus on in Italy, with an Outperform rating and a target of €1,27. The former telecommunications incumbent has lost about 40% since the beginning of the year and has rebounded by 3,8% in the last week after having lost 13% in the previous one.
Furthermore, as part of the quantitative easing (Qe) plan launched by the ECB, the Bank of Italy has purchased bonds issued by major Italian companies on the secondary market, including those of Telecom Italia. There are also purchases of bonds issued by Eni, Enel, Atlantia, Generali, Snam and Terna.
MPS HOLDS DOWN AWAITING AGREEMENT ON BAD LOANS
In Piazza Affari, the shares of the banks got off to a good start, folded in the middle of the session and returned to gains in the final stages of the market. Intesa rose by 0,2%, Banco Popolare +1,5%, Mediobanca +1,7%. Monte Paschi lost 1,8%, while the market continues to wonder about the future of the bank which could soon sell a substantial package of non-performing loans, but at a steep discount.
Following this operation, Monte Paschi could be obliged to launch a capital increase. Also on Friday, but with the exchange closed, Moody's announced that it had put its long-term deposit and long-term senior unsecured ratings under review for a possible downgrade as it sees "an increased probability that the bank will need external support ”.
US SURVEY ON FCA SALES
Automotive stocks rise in Europe: Fiat Chrysler +1,9%. ICBPI confirmed its positive view on the stock (buy, Tp 11,3 euro) while awaiting the second quarter results, which should see a marked improvement in adjusted profit. The criteria for calculating sales announced to the market are being investigated overseas. Automotive News reported that FBI and SEC investigators are conducting an investigation into how Fiat Chrysler Automobiles sales data is reported in the United States.
The company replied immediately: “We are collaborating with the American authorities – reads a note -. In its annual and quarterly financial reports, the company reports revenues based on its shipments to dealers and customers and not on the basis of units reported as sold to end customers by dealers.
LUXURY STILL UNDER FIRE
Luxury still under pressure in a climate marked by geopolitical tensions, with Ankara responding with a harsh repression to the failed coup that cost the lives of over 290 people. Ynap, Luxottica and Ferragamo leave at least one percentage point on the ground. Eni falls in Milan, down by 1%, and Tenaris (-1,6%). Saipem, on the other hand, gained 1,8%.
