The risk of a tightening by central banks, at a time when the pace of recovery can be slowed by the Delta variant, frightens European stock markets, which close the second consecutive session down, while Wall Street travels downwards. The dollar also continues to strengthen. The euro drops 0,3% against the greenback and runs close to 1,18 on the eve of the ECB meeting, awaiting the new growth estimates and perhaps a reduction in the pace of purchases of the pandemic plan between now and conclusion, in March 2022. For Robert Holzmann, governor of the Austrian central bank and 'hawkish' member of the board, the institute could tighten monetary policy sooner than many expect, given that inflationary pressures could prove to be more persistent.
In the meantime, Piazza Affari loses 26 and drops 0,75%, with the blue chip group led by Stellantis down -2,86%. However, the secondary is in green: the spread between 10-year BTPs and Bunds of the same duration closed at 107 basis points (-1,39%) and yields fell slightly. The rate of the Italian bond stops at +0,74%; that of the German stock -0,32%. The balance of the day is worse in Frankfurt -1,5%, where the collapse of Siemens weighs; negative are Paris -0,85%, Amsterdam -0,72%, Madrid -0,55% and London -0,76%.
Overseas Wall Street, which closed yesterday in contrast, is moving downwards on all fronts and even the Nasdaq, fresh from the new highs reached on its eve, is in the red. After Goldman Sachs lowered its estimates for the US economy, the downgrading of the stars and stripes rating of the shares by Morgan Stanley is felt, which foresees a "bumpy September-October", with strong risks for growth and the political agenda. On the contrary, Credit Suisse maintains its assessment of Continental Europe as a "top overweight", believing that the area has greater room for recovery of the GDP lost due to the pandemic than the USA (-3% in Europe again against -1% in the States States) and where the growth potential for 2021 and 2022 is not yet fully appreciated by the consensus. According to the economists of the Swiss group, the rebound of GDP in the Eurozone will be supported by less stringent fiscal policies than in the past and by the high rate of savings as well as by lower inflationary pressures compared to what is recorded across the Atlantic. Within the euro area, Credit Suisse sees Italy and Spain as the best performers.
In the US stock market, PayPal shares are now in the spotlight, announcing the purchase of Paidy, a Japanese operator specializing in online consumer credit, for 2,7 billion dollars.
Bonds are moving positively, with government bond prices rising and yields falling, after the jump in recent days. Furthermore, the debate continues on the start of tapering by the North American central bank, to which James Bullard of the St Louis Fed said he was in favor today, because, despite the weak growth of new jobs, in the USA "there is a demand for workers" . This is also confirmed by the Jolts report on job offers in July which increased for the seventh consecutive month to 10,934 million, a record figure, against expectations of 10,049 million. At 20 pm Italian time, the Federal Reserve's Beige Book will be released, a report that is prepared every six weeks on the basis of information collected in the 12 districts in which the bank operates.
In this delicate phase, the Fed is also at the center of attention for the appointment of the president, with Jerome Powell's mandate expiring in February. Against the current number one is the Nobel Prize winner Joseph Stiglitz in an interview, according to whom President John Biden, out of loyalty to his political agenda, should not confirm Powell in the role of central banker. Among the raw materials, oil rears its head, with Brent appreciating by more than one percentage point around 72,50 dollars a barrel. The super dollar, on the other hand, penalizes gold, which remains weak, slightly down, around 1792,40 dollars an ounce.
Returning to the shares of Piazza Affari, the fall of Stellantis is mainly due to the fact that the Chinese car manufacturer Dongfeng Motor Group Co Ltd sold 1,15% of the capital with ABB for 600,4 million euros at the price of €16,65 per share. The Chinese company will retain a 4,5% stake in Stellantis upon completion of the share sale. "The move does not surprise us given that after the merger its role (which was strategic when Psa was independent) has been reduced and we expect that in the short/medium term it will be able to exit completely", writes the broker Equita in the daily.
Prysmian lose ground -2,76%; Cnh -2,32%; Interpump -1,92%; Nexi -1,9%; Stm -1,79%. Banks are mostly negative. Unicredit (-0,71%), according to press sources, should obtain an extension from the Ministry of the Treasury on the deadline for negotiations to take over the Mps share package (-0,4%). Mediobanca goes against the trend +0,22%
After yesterday's stop, Diasorin is back in vogue +2,75%, close to the all-time highs. Utilities closed in the green: Snam +1,46%; A2a +1,45%; Hera +0,94%. Outside the main basket Ferragamo (+5,74%) celebrates the return to operating profit in the half-year report presented yesterday, which earned it the promotion by various analysts. In the months of July and August, the Florentine fashion house recorded revenues close to pre-pandemic levels. After the markets are closed, Tod's (-1,38%) will also show its half-yearly accounts. Well Webuild +1,04% which announced the victory, in consortium, of a tender worth one billion in Norway.
