The day of the ECB has arrived. Finally, observe the most critical who accuse the central bank of having underestimated the signs of a slowdown in the economy in recent months. But the reality is that, in the Eurozone as in the USA, the charges against central banks serve to cover delays and policy failures. In the USA, data on trade (deficit rising to 621 billion dollars in 2018, even 891 billion for manufactured goods, a negative record for ten years) show that Donald Trump's therapies are not working.
In the meantime, the effect of the announced agreement on duties is vanishing: after so many words, the markets want facts. This too serves to fuel the anticipation for the words that Mario Draghi will pronounce in the early afternoon, after the Frankfurt meeting. According to Bloomberg, the ECB will announce a major downward revision of its growth and inflation estimates and will pave the way for a massive liquidity injection which will be launched by June. Draghi, in support of the third TLTRO, should reiterate his commitment not to touch interest rates.
The markets await developments with apparent tranquillity:
THE SHANGHAI RALLY STOPS. THUD OF RENESAS IN TOKYO
The rally on the Chinese stock market stopped this morning. The index of Shanghai and Shenzhen is down 0,9%. Meanwhile, Huawei has announced that it will sue the US government for unfairly obstructing competition.
Tokyo -0,8% was also weak. Shoulder strap Renesas (-14,7%): the chip giant expects a large drop in orders in China. Hong Kong's Hang Seng and Korean Kospi were also down, both -0,5%.
The US markets are still down: Dow Jones -0,62%, Nasdaq -0,93%. The S&P 500 index -0,65% still fails to assault the 2.800 point threshold.
The signs of a slowdown in the economy are confirmed by the Beige book, the bulletin of the Federal Reserve. Private companies hired less than expected last month, while the White House's American First has no effect on the trade balance, whose deficit rose in February to its highest level in the last ten years.
GENERAL ELECTRIC COLLAPSES, EXXON -2,4%
Still in sharp decline General Electric (-7,9%), weak biotech after the resignation of the number one of the FDA.
Brent oil was trading at USD66,3 a barrel this morning, up 0,3%. There was a sharp increase in US crude stockpiles last week, but there was an even bigger decline in distillate reserves.
Exxon (-2,4%) is the worst blue chip in the Dow Jones. The company and Chevron have announced an increase in the production of crude oil from the large Permian Basin oil field.
Tonica at Piazza Affari Saipem (+1,85%): Kepler Cheuvreux has increased its rating and target price from 5 to 6 euros.
FOR THE OECD ONLY ARGENTINA AND Türkiye WORSE THAN ITALY
The Euro moves little, at 1,130 against the dollar, in the low part of the oscillation band within which it has been new for about six months.
The bad news coming from the OECD didn't affect the Italian price list too much: the Milan Stock Exchange, +0,65% under the influence of rumors about Tltro loans, accelerated in the afternoon, closing at 20.851,56 points.
The other markets of the Old Continent were weaker: Frankfurt -0,29%; Paris -0,16%, Madrid +0,46%; London +0,17%.
The update to the OECD's Economic Outlook cut GDP projections in 2019 to -0,2% yoy compared to 0,9% estimated by the organization in November. Italy is the only state in the Eurozone seen in recession. Forecasts are worse only for Argentina and Türkiye. Estimates for 0,5 have also been revised downwards to 2020%.
SAVONA: IN CONSOB MORE COLLABORATION WITH BANKITALIA
More collaboration with the Bank of Italy and also greater use of new technologies to increase the protection of savings. These are the two points on which Paolo Savona promises to inspire his presidency of Consob, as he reiterated yesterday in a hearing before the Finance Committee of the Chamber. “There is a machine that works and I don't intend to make revolutions” he assured him, saying he was calm about any incompatibilities. "On private assignments, I stopped all kinds of activities before starting as a minister and I have no intention of continuing any relationship that is not of pure knowledge".
Strong gains for government bonds. The yield on the 5-year BTP fell by 2,65 basis points to 2%, the yield on the 5-year BTP also fell by 0,24 basis points to 10%, a minimum for 12 months. The yield of the 0,12-month BOT (typical collateral that banks deliver to the ECB in TLTRO operations) fell to 6%, while that of the XNUMX-month BOT returned to the red.
The Btp/Bund spread narrowed, falling below the 250 points threshold.
INVESTORS REDISCOVER FIAT CHRYSLER
Fiat Chrysler flies (+3,65%) after exceeding a rise of more than 5% during the session. Purchases from abroad are picking up sharply: trades for 23 million pieces against 8,5 million in the last 30 days: the declarations in Geneva by CEO Mike Manley have brought the rumors about a possible merger back into the news. In the wake of the Italian-American stock, Exor advanced +1,98%). Ferrari (-0,7%) and Cnh Industrial (-0,3%) were weak.
Brembo -0,1%. Banca Imi lowered the target price to 10,50 euro from 11,20 euro. Judgment from Add (accumulate) to Hold.
ENEL AT THE HIGHEST FOR 14 MONTHS, FLY TIM
In great evidence the utilities. Enel +1,1%, closes on a 14-month high. Goldman Sachs strengthened the Buy by adjusting the target price to 6,20 euros from 6,0 euros.
Atlantia +1,6%, MainFirst raises to Outperform, target €26,40. More purchases on Tim (+2,5%) The purchases of CDP and funds continue in view of the assembly on 20 March.
Banks without particular cues: the Italian basket rises by 0,88%. Banco di Sardegna saves +17,2% after Bper announced an exchange offer with the ordinary shares of the Emilian bank. Bpm (+2%) and Ubi (+4%) also move in the finale.
The most negative note concerns Prysmian (-3,2%) following the results just below the consensus. The stock was also affected by the downgrade from 'hold' to 'buy' by Kepler Chevreux, who also revised the target price to 17 euros from 24.
Also the suffering of Amplifon -3,56% continues. Similar loss for Stm.
LENGTHENS CERVED (+15%) UNDER THE ADVENT LENS
Stretches Cerved (+15%). The US private equity firm Advent is evaluating a 1,8 billion euro offer for the acquisition. The indiscretion was reported by the Financial Times.
ePrice +5%. 2018 ended with revenues of 164,4 million euros (187,3 million last year). The net loss decreased, reaching 14,6 million, against 24,7 million last year.
Fincantieri +1,6%. Situation of impasse for the affair of the Stx France shipyards. "We are not even at the transaction notification stage, too early to talk about the outcome of the investigation," said European Competition Commissioner Margrethe Vestager.
