Rise of fear or rally of hope? The bull run, which started yesterday from the European lists, continued on Wall Street to land this morning on the Asian lists. In part it is certainly the effect of the hedges of speculation after the explosion of volatility. Partly it is the expectation of a turning point in the conflict: a truce or even something more. Or, as the New York Times, the belief that the economic clash is starting to produce its effects: the sanctions weigh on the West for 0,17% of GDP, on Russia for a devastating 0,7%. But perhaps the turning point that the war has imposed on governments and central bankers matters more. The projects to cut stimuli, more necessary than ever to avert the recession, are back in the drawer.
The tensions on raw materials remain, sharply decreasing. From nickel, down 17% on the Shanghai Stock Exchange, the only one where it still trades metal suspended in London. A Chinese company, Tsinghan Holding, is said to have bought an avalanche of derivatives, causing a rush for recoating and prices exceeding $XNUMX a ton. This too is an effect of war finance.
Widespread increases this morning on the Asia Pacific stock exchanges, in the wake of the leap forward of Europe and Wall Street: Nikkei +3,7%, BSE Sensex of Mumbai +2,3%, CSI 300 by Shanghai and Shenzhen + 1,7%. Alone, closed yesterday for the elections, is open today: the Kospi index is starting to close up by 1,7%. Conservative Yoon Suk Yeol prevailed in the polls. Hong Kong, where electric car maker Nio made its debut today, gaining 3%.
Sidney +1%. The mining giant Rio Tinto it loses 7% after the publication of a note in which it anticipates the closure of its commercial relations with Russian subjects. Among these, but it is not clear what will happen now, is the joint venture with the aluminum producer Rusa, led by Oleg Deripaska, the Russian tycoon most skeptical of Putin's choices.
Nasdaq records. Amazon +10%: double the buyback
Futures on the European Stock Exchanges and on Wall Street did not move much. The Nasdaq rallied 3,59% yesterday. On the too Dow Jones (+ 2%) and the S&P 500 (+ 2,57%).
Realizations on Energy have taken off: -4,5% after ten increases in a row. The Vix index, which measures the volatility of options on the S&P 500 index, fell 7% to 32.
Amazon +10% aftermarket. The company announced it was doubling its share buyback program to $10 billion and also warned that its shares will be split at a rate of 20 to every current 1.
Maxi buyback of 3 billion dollars also for General Electric, +3% after the stock market. It's a sign of entrepreneurs' confidence in their stocks, which aren't exactly peanuts on Wall Street.
Brent down to $112, wtf to 109. The UAE said it supported pumping more oil into a market wracked by supply disruptions due to sanctions against Russia following its invasion of Ukraine.
Brent lost 17 dollars a barrel in one session, the largest drop since 21 April 2020. The words of the director of the International Energy Agency contribute to weighing on prices, according to which the 60 million barrels of reserves of oil deployed to compensate for supply disruptions "are only an initial response".
Gold in decline, cryptocurrencies collapse
Gold down 0,5%, to 1982 dollars, from -2,90% yesterday, triggered once the price reached the all-time highs of August 2020 at 2.075 dollars.
Bitcoin is falling again: -6% after yesterday's +9% in a climate of very strong volatility, anything but a "safe haven". The US president, Joe Biden, has signed the expected executive order in which he asks government agencies to study the possible risks associated with the cryptocurrency boom. The document also calls for consideration of the creation of a Fed-backed digital dollar, after China and other countries have already adopted a digital currency.
The rally of hope starts from Europe
On the eve of the ECB meeting, the rally of hope was triggered. The news from Ukraine remains terrible: the number of refugees is rising as is the number of Western companies fleeing Russia. But, judging by the boom in price lists, something has changed. Indeed, more than something, given the historical rebound of the Stock Exchanges on the wings of volatility.
On the technical level, the oversold weighs heavily, on the fundamental level the price lists have for now already discounted the losses induced by the embargo, including the more symbolic than substantial one, of the USA and the United Kingdom on oil. Hence, that thread of hope linked to the meetings between the parties today in Istanbul, preceded by the scoop from the Jerusalem Post which speaks of a Russian proposal for Zelensky.
Versailles and Frankfurt, two opportunities to restart
Even more important from a European point of view is the expectation of the Versailles summit, from which the markets expect news regarding a common EU energy and defense policy. Last but not least, the Frankfurt meeting of central bankers. Up until a few days ago, this was an opportunity to start normalizing the monetary policy of the Eurozone, which today is unthinkable given the risk of stagflation. The EU will probably end the purchases of the Pepp plan, but will replace them with something else.
The spread falls: Milan rises by 6,95%
The bull run puts risk aversion to flight. The yield on the German 0,19-year bond, the safe haven par excellence, rose to +10%. The 1,6-year BTP closes at +5,47%. The spread drops by 142%, to XNUMX points.
Fireworks in the Stock Exchanges, starting from Milan, one of the liveliest. Piazza Affari gains 6,95% and climbs back to 23.889 basis points, with financials and cars rallying, while only oil stocks lose share.
Better than the Italian Stock Exchange both Frankfurt (+7,89%) and Paris (+7,13%). Followed by Amsterdam (+4,81%), Madrid (+4,71%) and London (+3,44%).
The script follows, in reverse, that of the previous days. Oil and defense stocks are down (Thales -4,2%), banks and cyclical stocks are redeemed.
Apple partners run: Stm +10,39%
Of note is the rush of European Apple suppliers, from Asml to Infineon, after Apple added 5G connectivity to the iPhone SE and iPad Air and introduced a faster chip for a new desktop. Stm leads the race (+10,39%).
Stellantis leads the way in Piazza Affari
The Grand Prix of Piazza Affari sees Stellantis prevail over the wire: +12,28% to 14,52 euros. The rebound of the stock (-37% from the highs in Monday's session) is favored by expectations for government measures in favor of the sector, as well as the confirmation at the end of February of the dividend of 1,04 euro for a total distribution of 3,3, 10,38 billion euros. Pirelli (+8,9%), Ferrari (+4,07%, the Reds has suspended relations with Russia) and Brembo (+XNUMX%).
Unicredit and Intesa on double digits. Ferragamo boom
There are not a few titles with a double-digit increase. Unicredit shines (+11,68%), after revealing a lower group exposure to Russia than feared. Intesa Sanpaolo rises by 11,09% behind Finecobank (+11,86%).
The rise of Salvatore Ferragamo +9,69% and Moncler +8,6% is close to double digits, in line with luxury.
Vivendi writes down its stake in Telecom by 728 million
Telecom Italia also rebounds (+6,6%) despite the downgrade of Moody's to Ba 3 after the 2021 results. Vivendi, in reiterating its trust in Labriola, cut the entry price by 728 million, from 0,857 to 0,657 euros per share of its 23,7%: almost half of what was paid (1,07 euros) in 2014, but more than the indicative price of Kkr (0,505 euros). Cdp, which in 2020 devalued its 0,68% Tim to 9,9 euros, will instead wait for the budget which it will approve on March 31 to decide what to do.
Eni lists a spac in London
The list of blue chips in red is brief: Tenaris -5,5%, Saipem -1,45% and Eni -0,5%, which announced in the morning its intention to list the spac New Energy One Acquisition Corporation ( Neoa) on the London Stock Exchange.
Seri Industrial flies off the main list (+26%) after the government's go-ahead for a 417 million non-repayable subsidy for the construction of a Gigafactory in Teverola (Caserta).
