“I don't think this is a passing phenomenon: we are at the beginning of a period of robust growth destined to last at least 4-5 years”. The US Treasury Secretary, Steve Mnuchin, raised the bar in a Sunday interview with Fox TV (the "Bible" of Trump thought) commenting on the run of US gross domestic product. Most economists are more cautious: the boom was favored by temporary phenomena, by the effects of the tax reform to the rush to export soybeans to China before the entry into force of duties. But the forecast confirms the government's will to arrive at the November elections with a brilliant economy. Indeed, euphoric.
STRONG YEN HOLDS BACK NIKKEI
Markets don't share much excitement waiting for central bank summits.
Tokyo accuses a drop of 0,6% in the middle of the session. The yen advances to 110,96 against the dollar. Also below parity is the Korean Kospi (-0,2%).
Hong Kong and Chinese price lists are also weak. The yuan traded at 6,8369, a 13-month low.
Oil prices contrasted: US crude oil rose to 68,69 dollars a barrel, Brent crude was weak (74,27).
Since the beginning of the year, the European indices are practically unchanged, including Piazza Affari. Better for the USA: S&P (+6%). The Nasdaq is up 13%. And another acronym makes its way, namely Maga (Microsoft, Apple, Google and Amazon) to replace Fang, after the fall of Facebook and Netflix.
US RATES UNCHANGED, LONDON GOES UP, JAPAN UNCERTAIN
Busy week for central banks. Central bank meetings will be central to the markets' attention. The US Federal Reserve Monetary Committee meeting will be held tomorrow and Wednesday. The forecast is that the board chaired by Jerome Powell will decide for now to keep rates unchanged and then proceed with the third increase during the meeting of 25-26 September, when the third increase of 2018 will be carried out.
Supporting the Fed's choices, despite the criticisms of President Trump, is the robust performance of the stars and stripes economy, up 4,1% in the third quarter, the most brilliant figure since autumn 2014. A confirmation of the positive trend of the economic situation should arrive at the end of the week from the numbers on the trend of the labor market. Estimates point to the creation of 195 new jobs in July, slightly down on the 213 in June, but enough to bring unemployment down to 3,9%. Payrolls are also growing: +0,3% in the month.
Spotlights turned on from this morning on the Bank of Japan, which will announce its choices tomorrow, eagerly awaited after the tensions of recent weeks. The party of those who ask for a change, at least a significant reduction in the purchases of securities (80 billion yen per month) by the Central Bank, whose coffers are now overflowing with JGBs and shares, is growing. But a part of the board deems it necessary not to touch the sub-zero rate policy.
A quarter of a point increase in the cost of money in the United Kingdom is probable on Thursday, even if the slowdown in the growth of inflation could advise Mark Carney to postpone the operation, already requested in the last meeting by three members of the board.
Rate hikes are also in sight in Mexico and Brazil.
MEDIUM-TERM BTP, TODAY AT AUCTION
In Italy, appointment with the medium and long-term Treasury auction, before the suspension of placements in the middle of the month. 5-year BTPs for 1,5-2 billion, 3-year bonds for 4-1 billion and CCTeu for 1,5-XNUMX billion euro will be offered.
THE DATA OF ENEL, BANKS AND GENERALI ARRIVE
The company accounts are at the center of attention. We start this morning with Leonardo's half-yearly, followed by the conference call of Alessandro Profumo. Italgas, Caltagirone Editore, Cerved Group, Hera, MolMed and Saras will also give the numbers during the day.
Enel will communicate the data for the first half of 2018 tomorrow. The following day it will be the turn of Ferrari, Generali and Intesa Sanpaolo, Thursday of Poste Italiane and Mps, while on Friday 27 July it will be the turn of Banco Bpm and Ubi Banca.
The Italian political-economic agenda provides for the table convened for Ilva which Arcelor Mittal will also participate in and on the Dignity decree process in Parliament. Prime Minister Giuseppe Conte is a guest of Donald Trump in Washington.
IN THE USA QUARTERLY FOR 140 CORPORATIONS
In the United States, the spotlight turned on Tuesday on Apple's accounts. But this week, 140 S&P 500 companies will be announcing quarterly results. Among these: Tesla, Caterpillar, Kellogg, Ralph Lauren, P&G and Pfizer.
In fact, in a global market which, since the beginning of the year, has performed without excesses (the MSCI World is gaining a normal +2,8%), if Europe is still at a standstill (tonight the FtseMib shares exactly the same as at 31 /12 last), in New York the results of these seven months are very different.
MSCI USA Gains 7%; in detail, the S&P6 is up +500%, the Nasdaq13 shines at +100%, despite the recent collapses of some famous stocks.
It will be interesting to see what happens in August, one of the most volatile months, statistically speaking, due to low trading volumes.
In a global view, out of sheer curiosity, to date, we point out the MSCI Finland as the best index ever, at +12%; on the opposite side, Argentina: -37%.
