Ukraine opens to neutrality and Russia announces a "significant reduction of military activities in Kiev and Chernihiv": the promising trend of the fourth round of talks in Türkiye (defined as "constructive"), feeds the bull on the markets today and allows European lists to close in clear progress and the bell of Wall Street to ring in tune. The road to peace is still long, but today's steps weigh negatively on oil and on the prices of raw materials, including agricultural ones, while instilling confidence in the euro and the ruble. The bitcoin moves cautiously on the levels of the eve, after the recent gains and waiting to understand what will really happen and when. The pressures on government bonds remain, in Europe and in the USA. The rate on the 2018-year German Bund is at its highest since 2, while the 2014-year bond has a positive yield for the first time since 5. Attention remains high on T-Bonds due to the inversion of the yield curve between 30 years and 5 years and between 10 and XNUMX years. It also narrows it spread between the title at 2 and that at 10 years.
European stock markets optimistic, Moscow contrasted
Cars, banks, luxury, travel and tourism support European lists, weighed down instead by oil and defense stocks.
Business Square it appreciates by 2,41% and recovers the losses suffered during the war, well exceeding the 25 mark and stopping at 25.307 basis points. Paris salt 3,08%; Madrid +2,87%; Frankfurt +2,35%; Amsterdam +2,05%. The more cautious is London +0,62%, which suffers from the losses recorded by oil stocks and the decline of Barclays (-3,47%) after one of the main investors put shares for about 3% of the bank's capital up for sale.
The indices of are mixed Moscow, where the trading of international securities has also resumed. The Moex, denominated in rubles, lost 0,91%, while the Rtsi, denominated in dollars, gained 7,11%.
Unicredit and Stellantis shine in Piazza Affari
Leading the list of blue chips in Piazza Affari is today Unicredit, the Italian bank most exposed to the Russian market shows an increase of 7,52%. Since the beginning of the month, the institute led by Andrea Orcél has lost 8,98%. The entire banking sector is breathing a sigh of relief: they are in clear progress Bper +5,88%; Understanding +5,7%; Bpm bank +5,28%. Well Ps, + 1,76%.
The automotive sector rebounds, driven by stellantis +6,64%. CEO Carlos Tavares and chairman John Elkann intend to support the transition to electric mobility at all Italian sites and in particular in Turin, with the aim of ensuring its sustainability and relevance within the group, as stated in a joint note after a meeting with the mayor of Turin and the president of the Piedmont Region. Tavares will meet the unions on Thursday.
In the wake Pirelli +5,09%. Bucking Cnh -3,72%.
He finds space on the podium Diasorin, +6,68%, stopped in volatility during the session with purchases reappearing in abundance while Covid is back in the news especially for the lockdowns decided in Shanghai. In health it is appreciated Amplifon +6,34%. In luxury, Moncler shines +5,61%. In the Interpump industry +5,75%.
It cools the energy with Terna -3,05%; Tenaris -2,73%; Snam -1,67%; Eni -1,33%.
In decline Leonardo -2,35%, despite the news that the shipbuilding group Damen has selected the Italian group to equip the new frigates of the German Navy with its naval defense systems. Profit taking weighs on Generali -2,04% and Telecom -0,12%.
Oil and wheat are down, gas is up
Oil cools further with glimmers of peace. At present, Brent is down 3,75% to 108,26 dollars a barrel; the WTI is trading at around 101,88 dollars, -3,85% after having also dropped below the one hundred level.
Metal prices drop, starting with gold, and the prospect of peace also puts a stop to speculation on the prices of wheat and corn. At the opening, the most active futures contract on wheat - underlines a note from Coldiretti - fell to 9,76 dollars a bushel (27,2 kilos) after having exceeded 13,6 dollars per bushel in a month of war while corn traded $7,17 after hitting $7,8 a bushel at its 10-year top. A clear trend reversal compared to previous levels - explains Coldiretti - recorded only in the years of the dramatic bread riots that involved many countries starting from North Africa such as Tunisia, Algeria and Egypt which is the world's largest importer of wheat and depends above all on Russia and Ukraine".
Instead, i gas prices (even in the US, after Biden promised new supplies to Europe). He hurts the tug-of-war between Russia and the Old Continent over payment in rubles, which still has no winner. After the no of the G7, of which the importing European countries are part, Moscow reiterates its position: Dmitry Peskov, Kremlin spokesman, confirms that Russia will not export gas for free (obviously) and that his country is looking for ways to make simpler, clearer and more practical payments, with all the options that must be examined by March 31st.
"Companies should take into account the changed conditions and the total change of situation that has occurred with the start of the economic war against Russia."
The euro and the ruble rise, spreads fall and rates rise
On the currency market the euro raise your head against the dollar and moves up by more than 1%, around 1,11.
The ruble also took off, at its highest since the start of military maneuvers in Ukraine, with the confirmation of the payment of the 102 million dollar coupons of the bond maturing in 2035 by Russia, which also notifies the repayment, scheduled for next week of a $2 billion bond.
On the Italian secondary market, the spread between 10-year BTPs and Bunds of the same duration decreased to 150 basis points (-1,35%), but yields increased, especially that of the Bund.
The Italian 2,13-year bond recorded a growth rate of 0,64% and the German bond +1,3%. Also weighing on the German map is the collapse of German consumer confidence in the economy, as measured by the Gfk German Consumer Climate. The index fell in February to 4,3% from the previous 1,8% in January and more than expected (XNUMX%). It is a key indicator, capable of anticipating consumer spending, which represents a key share of total economic activity.
