Banks keep afloat Business Square, which closed flat, +0,02%, 26.556 points, a contrasted session at the European level and weighed down in the afternoon by the volatility of Wall Street.
Frankfurt is the worst European market and loses 1,05%, alarmed by the fact that the Ifo institute has cut its forecast for German GDP growth in 2022, due to the fourth wave of coronavirus and the persistence of bottleneck in supplies slowing down the continent's largest economy.
Paris loses 0,69%, Amsterdam -0,93%; London . Madrid she practically dances alone, +0,63%.
A New York, after a mixed start, the situation is worsening on the three main indices which have all been in the red since Nasdaq (-1,8%).
Markets are unnerved by the uncertainty linked to the Omicron variant of the coronavirus, just as about twenty central banks are about to meet, starting with the Fed, ECB and BoE.
FED AND ECB
In particular, we look at the Fed, which will close its summit tomorrow and is expected to announce an acceleration of tapering (with a reduction in monthly purchases from 15 to 30 billion), a prodromal move for an initial rate hike that some observers place around May, others in June. According to Reuters, the market is already pricing in a 0,25% hike by May and rates of 0,75% by the end of the year.
All while inflation continues to bite: in November, US producer prices rose by 9,6% year on year, a new record, after last month's 8,6%, already unprecedented. The data also comes after last Friday's consumer price data, which increased year-on-year to a 40-year high.
The ECB will hold its last meeting of the year on Thursday, but its approach is estimated to be more cautious.
According to Sylvain Broyer, chief economist for the EMEA area of S&P, Eurotower will not raise interest rates "before the beginning of 2024" and will reduce purchases of securities in late 2023. According to Broyer "the inflation rate will already fall during 2022” and the EU “will reach pre-pandemic levels in the 4th quarter of this year, while Italy will have to wait for the second quarter of 2022”. The Governing Council is also likely to confirm its decision to end the Pandemic Emergency Purchase Program (PEPP) at the end of March 2022.
THE OMICRON SPECTRUM
The other element of strong uncertainty in this phase is the pandemic, which is proving to be a very tough opponent. According to the WHO "we are experiencing a tsunami of Covid infections in the world, due to the Delta and Omicron variants". The latter is still an unknown enemy, especially in relation to vaccines (even if two doses of Pfizer, according to studies from South Africa, would have reduced hospitalizations by 70%). Also according to the WHO, Omicron "can spread faster than Delta and is likely to become dominant in Europe".
To face the new wave, the States are equipping themselves, with internal restrictions and also limiting flows from abroad. In Italy, the Draghi government is in the process of extending the state of emergency until March 31 and is considering reintroducing the obligation to wear a mask outdoors.
RAW MATERIAL
In a world still grappling with relationship and mobility issues, the Petroleum it loses appeal and Brent and Wti futures move down by more than 1%.
Among the commodities, however, the race continues gas after yesterday's leap due to threats by Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko to block transit to Europe in the event of more severe sanctions against Minsk. At the Dutch hub TTF, prices rose by 3,2% this morning to 119,5 euros per MWh, while UK prices rose by 2,8% to £3,30 per therm.
It's moving in fractional declinegold, with spot gold trading at around 1775,38 dollars an ounce (-0,64%).
CURRENCY MARKET
The dollar index is on the rise on the foreign exchange market. The euro traded slightly against the greenback at around 1,1274.
The haemorrhaging of the Turkish lira continues, losing about 4% against the dollar and trading in the 0,0696 area.
BUSINESS PLACE
On the main Milanese index, the session was animated above all by the banks, with the market betting on a new risk in the sector.
It is at the top of the list Unicredit +4,58%, which continues to grind gains, interrupted only by brief stops, after the presentation of the new industrial plan signed by the CEO Orcel.
They also shine Bper + 1,54% Bpm bank + 1,42% Understanding +0,88% and Mediobanca +0,63%. However, the brightest star in the sector is outside the Ftse Mib, it is about Carige +8,15%, rally following press rumors according to which the Interbank Deposit Protection Fund (FITD) is in talks with a fund and two banks for the transfer of control of the Ligurian institution. The dialogues would be with Credit Agricole and Bper.
Much more cautious Ps, +0,33%. Yesterday the CEO of Banco Bpm Giuseppe Castagna answered "never say never" to a question about potential interest in Monte dei Paschi. Furthermore, according to what Ansa writes, the Sienese institute's board of directors should meet on Friday 17 December, also for the approval of the final version of the 2022-2026 business plan. The plan will then be sent to the Ministry of the Economy.
Oil stocks also rebounded, despite crude oil's sluggish performance: Tenaris +3,35%; Saipem +0,8%; Eni +1,07%. Well Amplifon +1,93% and Leonardo + 1,8%.
They ballast the price list Moncler -3,22%; Interpump -3,13%; Diasorin -2,41%; Ferrari -1,87%; stm -1,79%.
Flat it spread, which remains at 130 basis points, with yields slightly up. The 0,93-year BTP marks +0,37%; The Bund with the same duration -XNUMX%.
