In the European scenario, the British economy is among those that have best overcome the consequences of the 2008-09 crisis: in 2016, the UK's GDP will exceed that of 2007 by nine percentage points.
The outcome of the referendum has already led to a significant devaluation of the pound. However, the greatest impact of Brexit is expected beyond the short term and is almost unanimously assumed to be negative and not negligible.
The uncertain course of the negotiations could undermine consumer confidence and induce investors (especially foreign) to postpone the start of their projects. The repercussions of Brexit on the role of the United Kingdom in the global context are linked to the changes to what is defined as the "European passport", an opportunity which in the English case 13-14 thousand companies, financial and otherwise, take advantage of.
For the British banking system, the process of detachment from Europe intersects with two other regulatory trends of considerable depth: Basel 3 and the banking reform defined in September 2011 by the Independent Commission on Banking chaired by John Vickers. All three of these reform processes will come into full force in 2019.
If one compares the current situation with that which emerged following the bursting of the financial bubble in 2008-09, a strengthening of the large British banks is evident.
The improvement in accounting indicators was combined with the parallel correction of important management indicators. Less brilliant considerations are instead suggested by the profitability trend in the most recent period.
