The external challenges to the prosperity and security of the Union are manifold. For all, the most effective responses cannot be separated from a strengthening of integration processes and joint actions.
Trade and globalization. the TTIP
Without order of priority, a first challenge is to guarantee a development of international trade and investment flows functional to growth which, however, preserves European standards in terms of protection of health, the environment, working conditions, quality and traceability of the products and the intellectual property on which this is based.
Crucial in this regard is the TTIP, which is expected to increase the EU's GDP by 0,5 points when fully operational, while all the agreements for which negotiations have been concluded or begun (in addition to the USA, Canada, the China, Japan, South Korea, Russia, the ASEAN countries, Mercosur and the Andean Community), the perhaps too optimistic forecast of the Commission is over 2%.
For Italy, an exporting country, the advantages above all compared to the United States could be even greater if some of our specific interests were adequately safeguarded and promoted.
On a more general political level, the TTIP is also important for strengthening the transatlantic relationship which remains essential for the capacity to influence and the political weight of both the United States and Europe in a world in which the economic and political balances in perspective and then military move towards other actors. The negotiation is difficult and complex and on it, alongside genuine concerns on issues fundamental to our economy, disinformation of various types affects both sides of the Atlantic.
The fact is that there are strong differences of positions on many points between us and the Americans, between the various European countries and between the various productive sectors.
Energy and climate change
In terms of the external dimension, also due to its geopolitical and security implications, the policy of geographical diversification of supplies is of particular importance. This is especially true for gas, still largely transported via pipeline with consequent rigidities in origins and prices compared to LNG whose modes of transport are similar to those of oil. Currently the EU imports 53% of the energy it consumes. This is a total of 1.200 million tons of oil equivalent per year, decreasing over the last few years due to the crisis and energy efficiency, while that of the United States is about 1.550 Mtoe and that of the world is 9.000 Mtoe.
In particular, European dependence on imported oil is approximately 90% and that of gas approximately 70%, a percentage destined to increase, albeit in an overall context of reduced consumption, as a result of the depletion of the reserves of the Sea of North and the difficulties of activating those of the Adriatic which are in any case comparatively modest. Of the gas imported, 39% comes from Russia, increased after the first doubling of the North Stream, 33% from Norway destined to decrease, 22% from North Africa of which 20% from Algeria (for Italy almost 40% between Algeria and Libya) and the rest in liquefied form from other countries, above all from Qatar and Nigeria.
It should be noted that Russia's dependence on exports to Europe is over 70% and therefore much greater than the inverse, that a diversion to China will not be easy and can only be partial, and that North Africa's export dependence from the European Union, if we consider all energy products as a whole, is 75% against 15%. The Russian share, despite today's questioned forecasts of a further increase in the capacity of the North Stream, will decrease to the extent that regasification and interconnection capacities will increase (above all between Spain and France), liquefied gas production will become available from Egypt and the rest of the eastern Mediterranean, from Mozambique (the largest part of which will in any case go to Asia ) and the United States, and moreover the TAP gas pipeline from Azerbaijan will be built which in the future will also be able to use Iranian and Iraqi gas when this becomes available. But for this purpose the stabilization of the Middle East area is essential.
The growing use of renewable sources is a further factor in reducing these dependencies, as well as being a fundamental aspect of the policy to combat climate change and part of that "green economy" destined to be a crucial development factor in the coming decades. challenge of climate change, which threatens to jeopardize the future of humanity, is faced with a leading role by the EU.
In the run-up to and during the Paris Conference, the EU was at the forefront in supporting the binding nature of emission limits for all, albeit in a modulated, flexible and adjustable way over time.
Combating climate change is crucial, in the medium and long term, also with regard to the other major challenge represented by migration.
Conflicts and migrations
The increase in migratory pressure recorded above all this year is determined by various factors. The first consists of the conflicts in the Middle East and those connected to them in the Sahelian belt, from Northern Nigeria to Somalia, which fueled the flows of refugees first on the Mediterranean route through Libya, which involved Italy in particular, and then through the Balkan one via Turkey and Greece. The second, and of a more structural nature, is due to the large economic and demographic differences between Europe and Africa and also between Europe and southern Asia, with the corollary of the demand for immigration which, considering these differences, will be increasingly present in Europe but which is now halted or in any case attenuated due to European stagnation with the consequences that manifest themselves on perceptions and on the growth of xenophobic and populist movements, an expression of unease due to other causes, among which the prolonged economic and employment crisis stands out with its consequences on social guarantees, which however an uncontrolled immigration accentuates.
The migration issue has exposed diversity and short-sighted selfishness of the member states which risk jeopardizing the very stability of the Union starting from fundamental aspects such as freedom of movement and the universality of the welfare system.
The initiatives launched for the overcoming of the Dublin regulation and the definition of a European asylum right are struggling to move forward and the Shenghen system itself is endangered especially after the terrorist attack in France. As regards the conflict areas and where there are serious situations of oppression as in Eritrea it is essential to contribute to overcoming them through diplomatic actions carried out with determination which within the framework of the United Nations and with the help of the African Union do not exclude the military instrument in some cases.
The start of the negotiation process in Vienna on Syria and the convergences registered at the Security Council, with the involvement of all regional and external actors and the prediction of a ceasefire and the definition of a new institutional set-up, finally seem to open glimmers positive in this direction even if in Middle Eastern affairs the various protagonists and supporting actors pursue their own often contradictory interests under the pretext of the fight against ISIS, the composition of which is extremely complex.
With regard to other areas, above all in Africa, a policy of understanding at the European level is needed with the countries of origin, in which remittances from emigrants are often among the major factors of development, and with those of transit, aimed at discouraging and as far as possible to stop clandestine emigrations managed by criminal organizations.
To this end, direct interventions are needed to improve living conditions, even if we know that in the first phase this has contrasting effects on emigration aspirations, but at the same time to guarantee controlled channels of legal migrations without which it is extremely difficult to mirror full cooperation in the repatriation of those who enter illegally and in border control.
The Political Declaration and the Action Plan adopted by the Euro-African summit in Valletta show full awareness of the problems at hand and of the direction in which to move: from the support to be provided to countries of origin and transit in the sectors and with the aims indicated above, to the provision of legal immigration channels, to assistance and incentives for repatriations through individual aid and to the communities in which the return takes place. But the funding so far foreseen of 1,8 million euros by the Commission and a similar sum by the Member States appears wholly insufficient compared to the magnitude of the problems and the incentives for the countries involved. Suffice it to say that in 2014 remittances of emigrants have brought about 65 billion dollars to Africa, against about 75 billion in direct investments and 55 billion in bilateral and multilateral development aid.
Terrorist challenge and need for greater integration in security
To this challenge has been added the ever more urgent one of terrorism linked to the affirmation of ISIS in the Mesopotamian area and from there to the diffusion of forces linked to it in the rest of the Middle East, in Africa and in Asia with the capacity to recruit and intervention also in Europe as we have seen in Paris and Brussels.
All this can only be tackled at the European level with common and increasingly integrated tools, as is being done for rescue operations at sea and for fighting smugglers. Alongside full collaboration between the intelligence, police and judicial structures and an effective control of the external borders it is necessary to implement an effective common foreign and security policy, strengthening the role of the High Representative, and a common defense which through the "pooling and sharing" initiatives inherent in what is foreseen by the treaties and affirmed by numerous declarations of the European Council, make our armed forces more effective and reduce their duplication and waste.
However, it is clear that in order to achieve an effective union in matters of foreign and defense policy it will be necessary to overcome the ambitions of those who, but not only those who, by virtue of their membership of the United Nations Security Council and the possession of a nuclear force, resist , albeit with different intensities, to the processes of integration and common development of military capabilities supported by a more integrated, sustainable, innovative and competitive technological and industrial base.
Given that it is currently impossible to have a consensus on this prospect from the United Kingdom, and if France wants to move in this direction as it has stated several times but up to now maintaining ambiguity in actual behavior, those who want it must participate in the hoped-for gradual integration of armed forces and intelligence apparatuses, while using the instrument of permanent structured cooperation envisaged by the Lisbon Treaty by those who want it, leaving the door open to those who in the first phase want to stay out of it.
Concerning defense and foreign policy, as well as for other subjects dealt with here and for many others, the reconsideration of the functioning of the Union requested by the British Government in view of the announced referendum on EU membership offers the opportunity to initiate processes of differentiated integration and in concentric circles in various fields towards the goal of a political union with a progressive sharing of federal-type sovereignty and therefore with an adequate budget and full democratic legitimacy ensured by greater powers to the European Parliament.
This can be ensured at this stage only in the Eurozone or in any case among the countries which, being part of all the acquis of the Union, want to continue on this path. On the other hand, it is in this context that the prospect of widening the circle must be considered outside the Balkans and possibly Turkey and other European countries. Maurice Melani
