Work, Polimi: "Robots will compensate for the population decline"

The jobs that will be lost due to automation (3,6 million) will in any case be lower, in 15 years, than the drop in the job offer due to Italy's demographic decline (-4,7 million), but on the other hand, automation will allow a significant increase in productivity (+1,5% per year). This conclusion was reached by the Artificial Intelligence Observatory of the Milan Polytechnic, which presented data on the state of the sector in Italy. A sector evidently still in its infancy in our country, where spending on the development of artificial intelligence algorithms has been of just 85 million euros in 2018 and where to date only 12% of companies have brought at least one artificial intelligence project up to speed, while almost one out of two has not yet moved but is about to do so (8% is in the implementation phase, 31% has ongoing pilot projects, 21% have allocated the budget).

Moreover, the range of solutions used by the companies that have started the AI ​​breakthrough is still poor (68% of them declared themselves satisfied with the choice): the most popular ones are still Virtual Assistants or Chatbots, i.e. the more – so to speak – rudimentary ones, which testify to a still superficial vision on the part of Italian companies, of which 58% associate AI only with a technology capable of completely replicating the human mind (a concept that has little to deal with the practical implications of the discipline), 35% to techniques such as Machine Learning, 31% to virtual assistants only, while only 14% understood that AI aims to replicate specific capabilities typical of the human being (the prevailing view in the scientific community).

However, according to estimates by the Milan Polytechnic, the market has great growth prospects also in Italy: in fact, the project market must be accompanied by intelligent voice assistants (just introduced yet already capable of generating a market of 2018 million euros in 60, and which in the future will be able to convey new services and applications) as well as the autonomous and collaborative robots used in the field industry, whose market in 2017 was already worth over 145 million euros.

The big theme remains that ofimpact of artificial intelligence on work: if on the one hand 33% of the companies interviewed state that they had to hire new qualified professionals to create AI solutions, on the other 27% had to relocate personnel after the introduction of an AI solution. The precise survey on the employment balance in Italy reveals how Artificial Intelligence is nevertheless to be considered, at least according to the evaluations of Polimi, more as an opportunity than a threat: 3,6 million equivalent jobs could be replaced in the coming 15 years from machines, but in the same period due to the reduction in the supply of labor (mainly due to demographic issues, assuming continuity on migratory balances) there will in any case be a deficit of approximately 4,7 million jobs in the country.

So technology will lead to a lower decrease than that which can naturally be estimated, but on the other hand it will support productivity and therefore well-being. According to Polimi, Artificial Intelligence is “one necessary to maintain current levels of economic and social welfare, reducing the welfare costs necessary to maintain living standards, creating new jobs with higher value, to approach the 1,5% average annual rate of productivity growth that would be necessary, over the next 15 years, to maintain the same current socio-economic balance of our country's social security system".

Comparing with Istat data, the Observatory therefore found that the active population in Italy today is 23,3 million workers (Istat), compared to 12,3 million pensioners, with about 300.000 jobs that do not find adequate supply and an average unemployment rate of just under 11%. In the next 15 years there will be about 21,9 million workers and 14,5 million pensioners, with a net balance of -1,4 million workers and a worsening of the dependency ratio from the current 56% to over 70%. Retirees could increase by nearly 2 million. At the same time, an increase in the demand for labor of around 3,3 million equivalent jobs can be estimated, above all due to the increase in consumption and quality of life expectations and the greater burden of care for a progressively aging population. Thus, over the next 15 years, a deficit of 4,7 million equivalent jobs could be generated, which automation would partially compensate.

"The research highlights a dynamic market still in its infancy, characterized by a low awareness on the part of companies of the opportunities of Artificial Intelligence - commented Nicholas Cats, John Miragliotta e Alexander Piva, Directors of the Artificial Intelligence Observatory -. All market players must take their places in the starting blocks for a transformation whose rules and duration are not yet fully known, but whose enormous scope and implications are already understood”.

The Observatory also reserves a mention for the world of startups operating in the artificial intelligence market, which they have raised $2013 billion since 6, with average funding growing over the past year from $8,8 million to $13,1 million. The Observatory has identified 572 innovative international startups that have received funding in the last three years, divided into three macro-categories by type of offer: Enabling Technology ($1 billion), System ($1,5 billion), and Application ($3,5 billion). Among all sectors, those operating in Healthcare have raised the largest share of loans, over 400 million dollars (33%), followed by Finance with 315 million dollars (25%). From the point of view of the solutions offered, those of Intelligent Data Processing dominate with over 800 million dollars collected (65%). However, it is the startups that develop physical solutions, such as in the case of Autonomous Vehicles, that take the stage in terms of average funding, with a value of 36 million dollars.