If Africa is the young continent par excellence, destined for a demographic explosion in the coming decades, Latin America is in second place on an equal footing with Asia. With a population exceeding 650 million people, the subcontinent offers very interesting opportunities for retailers of all sizes, from large commercial chains and more established brands to SMEs. And, if in the more advanced markets the growth of e-commerce occurs rather slowly, the Latin American panorama is instead characterized by a growth that proceeds at a rather rapid pace.
In this regard, the portal The report of Statista estimates that during 2019 in Latin America 155.5 million people will buy goods and services online, up from 126.8 million recorded three years ago. Furthermore, Focus Economics predicts that online sales will increase by 19% in the next 5 years, against a global average of 11%, and will double in value to reach 118 billion dollars in 2021. These numbers are due to greater access to the network, used on average by 59 % of the population, and the widespread diffusion of smartphones, with a double growth of mobile commerce compared to traditional e-commerce, especially in urban areas.
The three markets showing the most significant growth rates are Mexico (with 21 billion dollars a year), Brazil (18,86 billion) e Argentina (6,83
billion): combined, sales made in these three countries are worth more than half of the entire region's e-commerce revenue. They follow Colombia (4,93 billion), Chile (3,7 billion) e Perù (3 billion).
Demand varies according to the reference country, with some common trends: clothing, household items and electronic tools they are the most purchased products and they are also the ones showing the most significant growth. The Colombian population prefers to buy clothes (69%), in Brazil dominate household items (68%), consumer electronics (67%) and cosmetics (54%), similar to Chile which prefers furniture and electronic items (55% ).
As for, instead, services purchased online tourist reservations (hotels, car rentals), air and train tickets stand out, especially in Colombia, while in Brazil more tickets are purchased for leisure activities and Mexico is the largest user of online content in the whole region.
For medium and long-term population growth trends, projections to 2040 published by SACE highlight an unprecedented trend for the region, i.e. the progressive closure of the gap with Europe and North America. The factors underlying the aging of the population in Latin America are common to those of other areas of the world: reduction of fertility and lengthening of average life thanks to better living conditions, which should not be remedied by the migratory balance, expected to be neutral or all 'at the slightest against.
One result aging trend in the coming decades, with the risk of putting public finances under pressure: the reduction of the active population negatively affects both the contribution base and productivity, eroding the potential growth rate of the GDP, while the lower economic growth causes a reduction in public revenues which joins the higher expenses, especially in the health and social security sectors. All in a context in which the average per capita GDP of the region at the end of 2017 was equal to 14.550 dollars compared to 39.589 for OECD countries.
However, these dynamics must not constitute an element of concern for Italian companies that are already operating, or intend to focus on different geographies of the region, at least in the near future. From a short-term perspective, the main risks in the subcontinent are instead linked to critical issues relating to some specific markets, such as Argentina, supported by the SBA program with the IMF. Much less problematic, according to analysts, are the scenarios in Colombia and Peru, as well as in Mexico and Brazil, where new leaders committed to strengthening growth have recently been elected.
