The latest blow was struck by Hillary Clinton: James Comey, head of the FBI, informed Congress that the recently discovered emails of the Democratic candidate did not reveal any new elements that could lead to her indictment. A little more than a day after the opening of the polls, Clinton thus seems to have regained the lead in the race for the White House. The effect of the acquittal was not long in coming.
– The Tokyo Stock Exchange rises by 1,1%. Hong Kong +0,6% and Shanghai +0,2. Seoul gains 0,9% and Mumbai 0,8%.
– Gold lost 1% to $1.290 an ounce, the first decline after seven consecutive days of gains.
– Brent oil rebounds to 46,2 dollars a barrel: in the last six days it has always closed in negative territory.
– Euro down on the dollar to 1,107 (the dollar had weakened in the last four days).
– The Mexican peso appreciated sharply against the dollar to 18,64 from 19,02 at the close.
An upward opening is looming for the European and US stock exchanges. S&P index futures signal a 1% gain. There are also positive signs of an arrival from London, Paris and Frankfurt futures. Such euphoria, as the precedent of the English referendum demonstrates, may be premature. Predictions these days seem to be made to be proved wrong. It is no coincidence that BlackRock, the most important asset management company on the planet, has bet just under a billion dollars "short" against the Mexican peso to take advantage of Trump's possible victory and thus compensate for the losses of a Hillary defeat , much more welcome on Wall Street.
Only one thing seems certain: from Tuesday night nothing will be as before. It applies to interest rates (not just the US), to economic policy and to major trade treaties. But the turning point will still be conditioned by the aftermath of the most violent electoral campaign since the time of Abraham Lincoln. And the endless confrontation will continue in Congress, in the Supreme Court and in the courtrooms, where, in case of defeat, Trump will seek revenge.
TURNOVER IN CHINA: LEAVE THE MINISTER OF FINANCE
Another novelty marks the start of the week: the surprise resignation in China of the finance minister, the leader of the reformists Lou Jiwei, replaced by Xiao Jie, already a close collaborator of premier Li Kequiang. The reshuffle also involved the heads of security and "civil affairs". It is difficult to understand at the moment the political value of the novelty. Meanwhile, after Beijing's decision to veto the appointment of two opposition MPs from Hong Kong, strong protests have broken out in the former British colony.
WALL STREET LEAVES A BLACK WEEK BEHIND
The markets head into D-day after a week of severe stress. Wall Street, put under pressure by Donald Trump's comeback, suffered nine consecutive declines, the likes of which hadn't happened since 1980 (the beginning of the Reagan era).
The dollar weakened against the euro, going from 1,098 to 1,112 (-1,2%) during the week, despite the good signals from employment, with growth in both jobs (161) and salaries. For Stanley Fischer, number two at the Fed, the chances of a rate hike in December are more than 70%.
Investors went back to looking for safe havens and the first, for a change, was gold, which rose by 2,2% during the week to 1.303 dollars an ounce (but this morning it fell slightly).
Beyond the tensions for the race to the White House, the currency market is experiencing other turbulence.
– The decision of the British High Court in London according to which the British government cannot start negotiations for leaving the EU without a vote from Parliament has caused the strong appreciation of the pound, which has strengthened against the dollar in five sessions by 2,7% (from 1,218 to 1,252).
– Turkey's forced march towards dictatorship does not scare the agencies: S&P has revised the outlook on the country's sovereign credit to 'stable' from 'negative'. The current rating is 'BB'. The review reflects the view that efforts to implement key economic reforms will continue, the agency said.
MILAN -5,8%, TOWARDS THE TRUTH AUCTION FOR BOTS AND BTPs
No less hot is the situation in the Eurozone, where tensions linked to US politics have combined with the tug-of-war between Germany and the ECB over the future of the Qe programme. The stock exchanges have accused six consecutive days of decline. The Eurostoxx index dropped 3,5%. Piazza Affari did worse: -5,8%. On the European stock exchanges, the stocks most affected by sales were oil companies (Stoxx in the sector -5,2% during the week), auto manufacturers (-5%) and banks (-4,8%).
Public debt titles are in turmoil. The yield on the Bund fell to 0,13% from 0,16%. That of the BTP, on the other hand, rose from 1,58% to 1,75%m with the relative widening of the spread by 20 basis points to 162. The mid-month Treasury auctions will be held during the week: Thursday there will be the offer of 12-month Bots, the next day it will be the turn of medium-long term securities.
S&P'S VERDICT ON ITALIAN DEBT ON FRIDAY
Not just US elections. On Wednesday 9 it will be the European Commission that will gain the attention of analysts and operators with the release of the autumn forecasts, an appointment that should make Brussels' attitude even clearer towards the budget maneuver launched by the Renzi government. On Friday 11th Standard & Poor's will update its judgment on Italy's rating.
TODAY ITALGAS RETURNS TO PIAZZA AFFARI
Today the Italian Stock Exchange celebrates the return of Italgas to the listing. Snam shareholders will receive Italgas shares, one out of every 5 already in the portfolio, thanks to the "partial and proportional demerger". Basically, those who had 50 Snam shares will end up with the same package (naturally of lesser value) but will have 10 Italgas shares in addition. The price has not been established since, since it is a demerger, the market will decide it, obviously calculating the exchange ratio on the basis of Snam's closing price of 4,58 euro (+1,1% on a market day by 0,6%) last Friday.
The stock recovered on Friday from the lows of the year reached the day before at 4,48 euros, reaching a high for the day at 4,65 euros, to then close down by 7 cents, also driven by the purchase recommendation of AlphaValue analysts , which indicated a target price of 5,6 euros per share. Despite the latest increase, the stock is down by 5,18% since the beginning of the year.
RAIN OF QUARTERLY REPORTS IN MILAN
The conference call on Telecom Italia's quarterly report, approved on Friday, will be held this morning. After many quarters of decline in turnover, there was an increase again: +1,4% to 4,8 billion. Ebitda is up by 2,2%. Tomorrow the meetings of Banca Popolare di Milano and Banco Popolare will be held. Wednesday will be the turn of Poste Italiane, while the accounts of Vivendi will be announced in Paris.
UNICREDIT, THURSDAY THE DECISION ON PIONEER
The Unicredit board of directors will be held on Thursday. The deadline for binding offers for Pioneer, the group's asset manager, expires on the same day. Several Italian and foreign subjects are in the race with Amundi and Poste Italiane in the front row, but among the groups in the running there are also Ameriprise Financial, which controls Threadneedle Asset Management, Macquarie and Aberdeen Asset Management, the latter particularly interested in foreign assets by Pioneer. The proposals value Pioneer at around €3,2-3,4 billion. The economically highest offer would come from Amundi.
The accounts of Enel, Generali, Bper and Ubi are also expected on Thursday 10th. During the day there will be the quarterly reports of Deutsche Telekom and Walt Disney. The Exor fashion show will close on Friday. Allianz accounts are also expected.
MONTE PASCHI WON THE BLACK JERSEY (-19,6%), FALCIAI PRESIDENT
Monte Paschi emerges from yet another tragic week: -19,6%. Senior debt also sold well, after the possibility of voluntary conversion emerged. Alessandro Falciai, already an industrialist in Dnt very close to Prime Minister Matteo Renzi, will be the new president of the Sienese institute on nomination by the Treasury, the Foundation and Axa, replacing the outgoing Massimo Tononi. The settlement will take place after the meeting of 24 November in which the shareholders will have to approve the capital increase of 5 billion.
Among the possible anchor investors, the Qatar Investment Authority takes shape. Today, in the meantime, CEO Marco Morelli is expected at Consob to explain the reasons for the refusal of the Passera offer.
