The markets are restarting at full speed, after yesterday's short break, driven by China's economic recovery and confidence in anti-Covid vaccines. Risk appetite weighs on the dollar and the euro brings the exchange rate back above 1,2.
London closes with a leap of 1,91%; good Paris +1,14%; slightly behind Frankfurt +0,73% and Madrid +0,76%. Bringing up the rear is Piazza Affari, +0,18%, overwhelmed by a wave of sales on Unicredit -8,02%, following the bombshell news that the CEO Jean Pierre Mustier will leave his office in April 2021, at the end of his mandate, as hypothesized by some newspapers over the weekend. The market looks to the bank's future with concern and Citigroup analysts downgrade the stock from "Buy" to "Neutral".
According to press hypothesis the chairman in pectore, Pier Carlo Padoan, will choose the new managing director and in pole position there would be Victor Massiah (former number one of Ubi Banca and ) and Alberto Nagel (CEO of Mediobanca, +1,45%), but an internal solution cannot be ruled out either. Moved by opposing interests, Monte dei Paschi (+3,7%) celebrates the farewell of Mustier, who is against a possible marriage with Siena. The rest of the sector is also making a big splash, starting with Intesa +2,68%.
Overseas Wall Street is tonic, which put the turbo in the first minutes of trading, bringing the indexes to a record zone, without worrying too much about the expansion of the pandemic and the surge in hospitalizations in intensive care. Meanwhile, Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin and Fed Chairman Jerome Powell are speaking in the US Senate on behalf of US small businesses that, without aid, are at risk due to the crisis induced by the coronavirus. The central banker warned the country in the past few hours: 'The outlook for the economy is extraordinarily uncertain and will depend, in large part, on the success of efforts to bring the virus under control.'
On the other hand, the data on Chinese industry in November instilled an injection of confidence, proof that once Covid has been defeated, the productive engine can run great. The Caixin manufacturing PMI rose to 54,9 from 53,6 in October, confirming itself above the threshold of 50 (which separates growth from contraction) for the seventh consecutive month. November's Caixin PMI reading is the highest in a decade.
European and American data also came out during the day, less brilliant than the Chinese ones but to a certain extent satisfactory, because they are partly higher than estimates. In particular, the PMI of Great Britain in November rose to 55,6, the highest level for 35 months. The explanation also lies in the farewell to the EU: according to the researchers "the imminent end of the Brexit transition period has led to growing levels of purchase of goods, accumulation of stocks of raw materials and greater gains in new export activities as customers based in the EU have brought their orders forward”.
The activity slows down in Italy 51,5 from 53,8 in October and also in Germany, 57,8 from 58,2 in October. In addition, the OECD has released its new estimates on the global economy. For Europe, GDP growth of 3,6% is expected. Italy will grow more slowly than expected next year (+4,3% from +5,4%), but will decline even less in 2020 (-9,1% from -10,5%).
On the vaccine front, the race against time of the manufacturing companies continues: Moderna and Pfizer-Biontech today requested EU authorization for emergency use, even if there are uncertainties about the possibility of an arrival on the market by the end of the year . “We can start shipments within a few hours (from approval) - said Sierk Poetting, operational and financial manager of BioNTech - We are building up inventories. Everything we have can really be deployed in a matter of hours.”
Among the raw materials, gold rebounds, recovering 1811,4 dollars an ounce (+1,94%).
Oil remains weak, with Bren losing 1,23%, 47,29 dollars a barrel. At yesterday's meeting, the cartel reached an agreement to extend the cuts to the first quarter of 2021 as well, but Russia, the leader of the non-OPEC countries, is against it and would like to start increasing the supply of crude oil as early as January. Hence the decision to postpone the meeting to next Thursday, so as to buy time and try to avoid the rifts which at the beginning of March, together with the pandemic, led to the collapse of prices.
Returning to Piazza Affari, the sales that overwhelmed Unicredit did not completely cripple the list: Stm shines, +4,51%, in the wake of US big tech. Money on Atlantia +2,65%, despite the postponement of the CDP offer. Good Azimuth +1,98%. Negative Amplifon -3,54%; Campari -2,52%; Diasorin -2,49%; Recorded -1,88%.
Uphill ending for bonds: the spread between Italian and German ten-year bonds rises to 116 basis points (+0,53%) and the BTP yield rises to +0,64%.
