The "active repentance" of Italian taxpayers is welcome. The appreciation comes from where you don't expect it: the Swiss banks, including Canton Ticino, the treasure chest par excellence of capital hidden from the Italian tax authorities. The reason for so much euphoria for the "voluntary disclosure" is easy to say: in order for the new law to work, it needs the effective exchange of information between the financial administration of the Italian state and that of the country today on the black list with which within sixty days of the entry into force of the law, an agreement must be stipulated which also complies with the standards envisaged by article 26 of the OECD model. The approval of the Italian law, therefore, indirectly marks the acceleration of the negotiations underway between the two countries on the regularization of capital brought across the border, allowing, as a banker from Ticino explains, to "tax the capital making it remain in Switzerland" as long as there is , of course, an effective exchange of information with Italy within 60 days of the entry into force of the law. "At this point the agreement is in fact already written: there will be an exchange of information on request until the automatic one comes into force [presumably from 2018] and consequently the removal of Switzerland from the blacklist", added the source.
The knot of the border workers
Maybe things aren't that simple, because a delicate piece is still missing in the relationship between the Confederation and Rome: the tax treatment of frontier workers. But even here, a delicate issue also due to internal political tensions in Switzerland, an agreement seems possible. In short, as Vieri Ceriani, who has been leading the negotiations on behalf of Italy for two and a half years, underlined in a recent interview with Corriere del Ticino, the voluntary disclosure "also takes into account what was said at the negotiating table with the Swiss. Reduced sanctions are foreseen for countries that are currently on the blacklist but will sign an agreement that aligns the exchange of information on request with the latest OECD scheme. We have already implemented and anticipated some of the future tax agreements”. In short, Swiss banks are changing their skin: from anonymous safes, sheltered from the tax authorities of their countries of origin, to “normal” competitors. Why this change of direction? ? "For the simple fact that even the authorities of other countries are no longer what they once were," replies Paolo Bernasconi, one of Switzerland's best-known lawyers, former public prosecutor of Lugano and Chiasso. The Swiss Confederation is under pressure from European states such as Italy, France, Spain, Germany, more or less afflicted by growth in public debt.
More transparency pays off
In other words, as Luxembourg Finance Minister Pierre Gramegna said in Milan, “the lack of transparency is now more of a cost than an advantage”. In recent years, from the shields of Giulio Tremonti onwards, the Canton of Ticino has paid dearly for the greater aggressiveness of the Italian tax authorities. From 2007 to 2013, bank employees decreased by about 1.300 units (last year they were 6.465 in all), out of an overall decrease of 9 units for Switzerland. In the same period, the banks based in Ticino went from 27 to 18 and their tax revenue dropped from 107 million francs in 2005, to 19 in 2013, to an estimated 12 for 2014. We might as well change the register and play in the light of the sun: once cleared of their presence on the black list, they are certain in Lugano, the gnomes of Zurich and the managers of Geneva will be able to do excellent business, playing their cards face up in the EU.
The numbers at stake
But what will be the immediate effects of the "revolution" for the finance of our house now? The estimates, as usual, are very vague. There is uncertainty about the amount of capital parked north of Chiasso. On the Swiss side, authoritative bankers argue that, by now, the total does not reach 100 billion. The most accredited Italian estimate speaks of about 140-150 billion, about 70 percent of the amount parked in tax havens. It is also necessary to take into account the different tax treatment: unlike amnesties, this time the discount will concern administrative sanctions and criminal offences, but the tax will have to be paid in full. The result is a complex case study which among other things will have to be clarified in the regulations. For lawful assets such as old inheritances, the assets of professionals and corporate profits subtracted from the Italian tax authorities, the sanction provides for the payment of taxes on returns for each year of stay abroad, in addition to penalties and interest for late payment and the penalties for failure to communicate on the Rw part of the tax return. The picture becomes more complicated in the case of "active transactions". But the certain fact is that, once the voluntary disclosure window has expired, those who have not accepted the offer will run significant criminal risks and will have to set course for the real Remote tax havens: the countries Gulf, some Caribbean islands or China Singapore no longer accepts undeclared money. Nor is Cyprus any longer a safe haven after the colossal levy on Nicosia bank accounts to prevent the island's financial meltdown.
Hence the expectation of a strong flow of capital towards asset management companies in the Bel Paese. It is no coincidence that Banca Intesa intends to increasingly focus on asset allocation, Unicredit aims to strengthen the dimensions of Pioneer together with Banco de Santander. And in Piazza Affari Azimut, Banca Generali and Mediolanum celebrate.
