The Arab Spring has profoundly destabilized the geopolitical and geoeconomic balances of the southern shore of the Mediterranean, generating a situation of uncertainty in the area that opens up new possibilities for Turkey to (re)emerge as a regional leader. The upheavals in North Africa also took place at a time when Turkey had already embarked on a process of repositioning itself in the geopolitical arena of the region. In the last decade, in fact, the country renewed its foreign policy, improving economic and political relations with neighbors and relaunching its aspirations in the areas of the Caucasus, Central Asia, Iraq, Iran and the Eastern Mediterranean. Several geoeconomic and geoenergetic factors are making the Turkey is a crucial player both for European energy security and for the process of economic integration of the Mediterranean area.
Geoeconomic profiles – Turkey has always been the largest economy in the southern Mediterranean area and in the last decade it has further increased its prominence, increasing its GDP from 266 billion dollars in 2000 to 763 billion in 2011. According to the latest estimates of the International Monetary Fund (IMF), Turkey will also assert itself in the coming years as the most dynamic economy in the region. During the last decade, the countries of the southern Mediterranean have not only grown in terms of GDP, but also in terms of demography. In fact, the region's population rose from 234 million people in 2000 to 277 million in 2011. According to IMF forecasts, the area's population will continue to grow in the near future, reaching 297 million people in 2016. Looking at the per capita GDP figure, it can be seen that among the countries in the area Israel, Turkey and Lebanon have higher levels than all the others. According to IMF forecasts, in the period 2011-2016 Turkey's per capita GDP will grow annually at an average rate of 7%, well above the regional average of 5%. These three fundamental macroeconomic indicators – GDP, population and per capita GDP – exemplify Turkey's primary importance in the regional economic panorama and represent an essential element for understanding the role that the country plays – and will continue to play – in the Mediterranean area.
Geoenergy profiles – Turkey's primary role in the southern Mediterranean area is not only due to the size of its economy, but also to its position in terms of geoenergy. The rapid economic and demographic expansion expected for the Southern Mediterranean countries will have a substantial effect on the regional energy perspective. In this sense, it is estimated that the energy consumption of these countries will double in the next two decades, rising from 311 million tonnes of oil equivalent (MTEP) in 2010 to around 600 MTEP in 2030. Turkey more than doubled its energy consumption between 1990 (47 MTEP) and 2010 (110 MTEP), becoming the first energy-consuming country in the southern Mediterranean (in 2010 Turkey accounted for 31% of regional energy consumption). Considering that the country will witness the fastest economic expansion in the region, this percentage is set to increase steadily over the next two decades, reaching a level of 38% in 2030. Turkey's important role in the southern Mediterranean energy landscape it is, however, not only due to the size of its market, but also to its unique geographical location. It is, in fact, at the center of 68% of the world's oil reserves and 75% of the world's natural gas reserves. This peculiar feature opens up a series of opportunities for Turkey in terms of energy transit. In particular, the most important opportunity seems to be linked to the natural gas market: both the prospects for the European demand for gas and for its production in the surrounding supplier countries allow us to foresee a bright future for this country as regional natural gas hub.
The strategic importance of natural gas – Within its Energy Roadmap 2050, the European Commission has highlighted the crucial importance that natural gas will have for the transformation of the European energy system, predicting that in this area, in the medium term, the demand for gas will remain high especially in relation to the production of electricity. In 2010 about 80% of gas imports of the European Union (330 billion cubic meters), are derived from only three suppliers: Russian Federation (110 billion cubic meters), Norway (99 billion cubic meters) e Algeria (50 billion cubic meters). This heavy reliance on so few suppliers led the European Commission to make the concept of diversification one of the cornerstones of its energy policy. This concept has been interpreted very broadly, including both the diversification of suppliers and (precisely because of the strong geopolitical problems linked to gas infrastructures) the diversification of transit countries. In particular, the European Commission formally launched in 2008 the concept of the Southern Corridor, an initiative aimed at developing a transit corridor for natural gas from the rich regions of the Caspian Sea and the Middle East to Europe, to mitigate its dependence on natural gas imported from the Russian Federation. The Caspian region holds a significant amount of proven reserves of natural gas. Turkmenistan has the largest reserves in the region (about 8 tcm), followed by Kazakhstan (1,8 tcm), Uzbekistan (1,6 tcm) and Azerbaijan (1,3 tcm). With the exception of Azerbaijan, however, the export potential of these countries is hampered by their geographical situation. In fact, these are countries that do not have an outlet to the sea and for this reason all their exports to Europe require transit through the territory of the Russian Federation. To have their own trade independence, these countries would have to develop alternative routes.
The most discussed option, but also the most problematic for both technical and legal reasons, is to build a gas pipeline across the Caspian Sea. For this reason, the EU has recently engaged in regular dialogue with Turkmenistan and Azerbaijan. The mandate granted on 12 September 2011 by the 27 EU Member States to the European Commission to negotiate a legally binding treaty between the EU, Azerbaijan and Turkmenistan for the construction of such a gas pipeline could represent an important step in consolidating relations between these actors, and thus to strengthen the very concept of the Southern Corridor. While gas supplies from Turkmenistan, Kazakhstan, Iran and Iraq represent a long-term perspective, gas supplies from Azerbaijan already represent potential in the short term. The country's main gas reserves are located in the huge Shah Deniz field, located in the southern part of the Caspian Sea. The field covers approximately 860 sq km and has proven gas reserves estimated at around 1.000 billion cubic metres. The so-called was recently started "phase 2" by Shah Deniz, which involves the making of an additional offshore platform, which will add an additional 16 billion cubic meters to the country's current natural gas production, of which 10 billion for the Turkish market and 6 billion for the European market. As far as the infrastructural issue is concerned, there are several projects on the table: Nabucco, ITGI, TANAP, TAP, SEEP, AGRI and White Stream. With the sole exception of White Stream (a Georgia-Romania-Ukraine gas pipeline) and AGRI (an Azerbaijan-Georgia-Romanian LNG project across the Black Sea), all other projects have one common feature: transit through Turkey. Whoever is the winner of the Southern Corridor tender, it is clear that the center of gravity of natural gas transit to Europe will be rearranged from the north to the south of the Black Sea, making Turkey the keystone of European energy security.
The potential of renewables – In addition to the prospects for the gas market, it is necessary to underline the enormous potential in terms of renewable energies – above all solar – in the southern Mediterranean area, a potential which the Turkey can make a great contribution in terms of technology transfer and production capacity. Turkey's involvement in the Union for the Mediterranean, an institutional framework that strongly supports the Mediterranean Solar Plan and the Desertec initiative, offers another opportunity for energy cooperation in the region. This prospect is further strengthened by considering the European strategy aimed at creating the so-called Mediterranean Energy Ring, which connects Europe with the southern Mediterranean through gas and electricity interconnections.
The urgency of renewed EU-Türkiye cooperation in the energy sector – Since 2002, Turkey has embarked on a process of renewing its foreign policy, putting aside ideological differences with its neighbors to focus on more pragmatic economic and trade issues. In particular, natural gas has been a central element in these new pragmatism-oriented relations between Turkey and Central Asian and Middle Eastern countries such as Azerbaijan, Turkmenistan, Iran and Iraq. Turkey also plays a crucially important role in the Eastern Mediterranean, an area undergoing rapid evolution both in geopolitical and geoenergetic terms after the recent discoveries of natural gas deposits off the coast of Israel and Cyprus. Considering all these factors together, it is therefore possible to better understand how Turkey is destined to become a fundamental element both for European energy security and for the process of integration of the Mediterranean area. For this reason, the EU should develop a new cooperation scheme with Turkey as soon as possible, starting from the sector where interests are strongest: energy, to be precise. The first priority of this new cooperation scheme should concern the integration of the natural gas and electricity markets. The EU, through various initiatives such as Inogate, MedReg and Energy Community, has already taken some steps in this direction, although without obtaining significant results. In particular, Turkey only holds the status of "observer country" at the Energy Community, the institution created by the EU in 2005 with the aim of extending the acquis communautaire in the field of energy. The second priority of a new EU-Turkey cooperation scheme should concern the development of renewable energies. As has been indicated, there is in fact enormous potential in this sector in the southern Mediterranean area and Turkey's contribution would represent enormous added value for the large-scale projects being defined in North Africa. Such projects could make a major contribution not only to the economic development of the entire Mediterranean region, but also to foster greater political and social integration of the area itself. Indeed, as historical evidence demonstrates, there is always an intimate relationship between large-scale economic interaction and the stability of the political order.
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