It seems like a quiet day in Piazza Affari, with the Ftse Mib index which, after having opened gaining 1,5%, downgrades to a more modest +0,7% by mid-morning. The other main European markets were also timid: London (+0,78%), Paris (+0,67%) and Frankfurt (+0,20%).
A historic choice. This was the title of Gawyn Davies' comment in the Financial Times dedicated to Mario Draghi's debut as head of the ECB. And Super Mario has not disappointed expectations: to deal with a "soft recession" that is enveloping the economies of Euroland, the European Central Bank has cut rates by a quarter of a point. The decision was taken unanimously, but it is no less surprising: since those who expected Draghi, in his debut, would have the courage to appear too soft, American-style central banker, contradicting his reputation as a hawk German. But Draghi has shown that he is not a slave to image prejudices by underlining that "no one can tell us what to do". And so on with the rate cut, necessary to prevent the financial crisis from translating into a squeeze on the real economy.
"Draghi gives us hope: he is the man capable of doing what must be done", is the title of Bloomberg. “It's a sign in favor of growth, it's a positive sign, to be Mario Draghi's first move it's a good first move” was the comment of Intesa San Paolo CEO Corrado Passera. The effects were seen immediately: the euro climbed up to 1,3821 against the dollar, the stock exchanges took the upward path. Meanwhile, today the Financial Stability Board will publish the preliminary list of important companies from a systemic point of view over which it will be supervised. The list of SIFIs is Mario Draghi's latest effort as chairman of the committee, a role that will probably be assigned today to the governor of the Bank of Canada. $It is expected that from 2016 additional mechanisms will have to be put in place to absorb losses in the banks identified by the committee as systemically relevant.
PAPANDREOU'S BIG BLUFF SUCCESSFUL
BERLUSCONI PLAYS THE CARD OF TRUST
The other great protagonist of the day is Georges Papandreou, the Greek premier for whom the definition given by Websim applies: he is the greatest poker player in the world around. His move to hold the referendum on aid has forced the opposition, which has long been very critical of the government's actions, to come out into the open and reluctantly guarantee support to resolve the crisis. If so, Papandreou played a magnificent bluff. In one fell swoop, the government removed a thorn from its side and forced the opposition to share the most unpopular choices to carry out the austerity plan. A royal flush to which Queen Angel a Merkel and Jack Nicolas Sarkozy (who does not deserve the rank of king) contributed, perhaps unwittingly. Even Silvio Berlusconi, despite the fact that the majority is losing pieces (and perhaps it is no longer the majority) flaunts security: "The provision will arrive in the Senate at the beginning of next week, at the latest by Wednesday and with the affixing of the trust in 10-15 days all the measures will be determined and defined", the prime minister assured the European partners of the G20, adding that the government is determined to open negotiations with the unions "rapidly on the reform of the labor market".
THE BTP HAS NEARED THE SAFETY LEVEL (6,40%)
THE AUCTIONS IN PARIS AND MADRID ARE SUCCESSFUL
Italy's public debt, meanwhile, continues to dance on the edge of the abyss. The yield on ten-year BTPs rose to 6,40 per cent, the highest since September 1997 (when the lira still existed) before falling back to 6,18%. But now the threshold of 5,50% ,, considered the point of no return, is one step away. In this regard, the precedents justify the fears: Ireland was forced to announce the use of an external rescue round the clock after exceeding 6,50% last October. Portugal suffered the same fate. No less risky is the spread against the Bund, which reached 425.
Yesterday, despite the tense situation on the sovereign debt front, France and Spain successfully defied the markets. France placed 6,05 billion Oats at 6-10 and 15 years while Madrid placed 4,49 billion Bonos at 3 and 5 years.
WALL STREET AND THE ASIAN STOCK EXCHANGES FLY
GROUPON'S IPO TODAY: WORTH 12,65 BILLION
The rate cut made by the ECB and the return of the threat of the Greek referendum had the effect of relaunching the markets across the Atlantic as well. At the end of the session, the Dow Jones recorded a comforting +1,76%, preceded by the Standard & Poor's 500 +1,88%. Leading the race, on the eve of the Groupon IPO, valued at 12,65 billion dollars, is the Nasdaq +2,20%.
The easing of tensions on the Eurozone allows American operators to appreciate the results of an excellent quarterly campaign: three-quarters of the companies that have presented data since 11 October to today have beaten analysts' estimates. But there is a sour note: Abercrombie & Fitch suffered a 20% drop. The reason is declining sales in flagship stores in Europe, Canada and Japan. Asian stock markets also rose. Tokyo's Nikkei index gains 1,66%, Hong Kong's Hang Seng jumps 3,75%. The effects of the crisis on European markets, according to a survey by Barclays, have had the effect of shifting capital back towards emerging markets: 3,5 billion dollars last week moved towards emerging equity markets.
TENARIS ACCOUNTS +14,1% SURPRISE BUSINESS PLACE
UNICREDIT: PROFIT DOWN, BUT THE INCREASE IS LESS SCARY
The Milan Stock Exchange closed sharply higher after a red-tinged start, thanks both to the rate cut by the ECB and to Papandreou's about-face on the referendum. And so the Ftse Mib gained 3,23% reaching 15.766,16 points and the Ftse All Share advanced by 2,98% to 16.595,14. The banking sector was brilliant, after a markedly downward start. Unicredit did well, closing the session up 4,58% at 0,833 euros. While awaiting the publication of the accounts scheduled for November 14, Unicredit has released the consensus of analysts. In the third quarter, experts expect net profit to drop sharply to 6 million euro against the 334 million achieved a year ago. Operating income is forecast at 5,8 billion euros compared to 6,5 in the third quarter of 2010. Profit before taxes should stop at 218 million while the estimate for the net operating result is 491 million euros. Analysts are awaiting indications on the next capital increase, in the order of 6-7 billion. Purchases also widespread on Intesa Sanpaolo (+3,68% to 1,184 euro), Our managing director confirmed that he had made the appropriate provisions” . Thus the president of the Cariplo Foundation, Giuseppe Guzzetti, replied, quoting Corrado Passera, to those who asked him if he expected a drop in dividends in the future. Regarding the capital increases, Guzzetti himself added that “the Foundations will do their part. It is necessary that the hypotheses become concrete in the single situations, then we will decide for the best. Intesa Sanpaolo has already recapitalised: it is not a bottomless pit”. Ubi Banca (+5,27% to €2,716), Mps (+2,27% to €0,319), Banco Popolare (+2,50% to €1,025) and Mediobanca (+1,71% to €5,65 ). The Popolare di Milano went against the trend, closing trading down by 2,30% to 0,390. The asset management sector was also positive: Azimut and Mediolanum advanced respectively by 4,19% to 5,465 euro and 3,80% at 2,786 euros. Good performance also for the Agnelli Galaxy. Fiat Spa closed up 5,59% at 4,38 euros, Fiat Industrial up 6,50% at 6,55 euros and Exor up 5,08% at 15,72 euros. Eni showed an increase of 1,35 .15,76% to 20 euros. Nomura confirmed the buy opinion on the Italian oil giant with a target price of 15 euros. The six-legged dog remains one of the most exposed oil companies in Libya, with about 2010% of total production in 19,1. Analysts expect a rapid recovery in the coming months of oil and especially gas production. Equita also took action on the San Donato company, raising its target price from 20,1 to XNUMX euros, keeping the buy recommendation unchanged.
Tenaris has put wings on its feet after the release of the excellent quarterly report. The stock closed the session up 14,18% at 12,8 euros. The company closed the penultimate quarter of the year with a net profit of 365,5 million dollars, up 21% on the 302,7 million recorded in the same period in 2010. The turnover also rose by 23% to 2,495 billion dollars, while the gross operating margin showed a growth of 17%, to 620,3 million. The group's board of directors also approved the payment of an interim dividend of 13 cents per share.
STMicroelectronics performed well (+9% to 4,87 euros), after the joint venture with Ericsson was chosen by Nokia as the supplier of its future processors based on the Windows Mobile platform.
DELMI IN SUPPORT OF EDF'S TAKEOVER
THE LOTTOMATICA BOOM DOESN ' T STOP
Yes of the board of directors of Iren and Delmi has approved the non-binding scheme on the reorganization of Edison agreed in Paris with EDF. With this decision, the agreements with the French are extended by about a month until next November 30th. This period, the president of Delmi, Franco Baiguera underlined after the meeting, will serve to define the details of the operation "such as the demerger of Transalpina di Energia, the distribution of the Edipower debt, the comparable companies for the definition of the put linked to ebitda and governance”. Then the agreement will become binding and the actual reorganization will be able to start with the possible takeover bid. "The conclusion of the transaction - reads the Iren press release - will increase the group's production capacity in the hydroelectric sector, with the right to withdraw its share of electricity produced by the Mese and Udine plants", deriving from the Edipower break-up .
In the meantime, Delmi has in fact reserved the right to purchase Foro Buonaparte shares, as part of the possible Mandatory Offer, for a consideration of a maximum of 50 million euros. A limited figure which however, if the Offer takes place, as requested by the French, at the average price of the last 12 months (about 0,84 euros) corresponds to 1,1% of the share capital. A package that would be added to the 30,6% that the Italian shareholders (A2A, Iren, Sel, Dolomiti Energia, Mediobanca, Crt and Bpm) would hold after the proportional demerger of the Italian-French holding company Transalpina di Energia which it currently owns 61,2% of Edison. EDF conditioned the validity of the entire transaction on Foro Buonaparte to the confirmation by Consob of the applicability in the event of a mandatory takeover bid of the methodology for determining the price equal to the average of the previous 12 months. A decision which, according to some observers, would not sufficiently protect minorities since Delmi's Italian shareholders also enjoy a three-year put on Edison stock.
Lottomatica closes the third quarter with growing results which make it confident of reaching the year-end objectives, revised upwards last July. Revenues rose 34,2% to 740,9 million, Ebitda increased 18,7% to 237 million, net profit was 58,5 million compared to a loss of 13,2 million a year before. In the nine months profit increased to 126,6 million from 51,1 million, revenues rose to 2,15 billion from 1,67 billion.
The gaming and betting sector therefore once again proves to be resistant to the crisis phases: "From the data we have to date, we do not see any change compared to the trends recorded so far", said the CEO, answering a question about the deterioration of the economic situation in Italy.
ROME'S TAKEOVER OFFER COSTS DI BENEDETTO 10 MILLION
AND BUFFON WITH 3 MILLION PROTECTS ZUCCHI'S DOOR
At the end of the tender offer promoted by Neep Roma Holding on the ordinary shares of As Roma, 14,5 million shares were contributed to the offer, equal to 33,252% of the shares involved in the offer and 10,941% of the share capital. This was communicated, on the basis of preliminary data, by the company headed by Thomas Di Benedetto and owned by Unicredit. By adding the shares brought in acceptance of the offer to those already held by the bidder, Neep holds 78,038% of the capital of As Roma. Therefore, the residual tender offer is not necessary. The total value of the shares contributed to the offer is equal to 9,831 million euros.
Consob green light for the publication of the prospectus for the Zucchi capital increase which will start on Monday 7 November. The option offer to shareholders will concern 150.142.696 shares at a price of 0,10 euro for each ordinary and savings share and the exchange is set at 27 new ordinary shares for every five ordinary or savings shares held with the free allocation of one warrant 2011-14 for each new share subscribed. A further increase of 15 million is expected to service the warrants. Some shareholders have undertaken to subscribe a total of 6,97 million euro, equal to 46,4% of the increase. Among these, Gianluigi Buffon who pledged for 2,92 million.
