I markets reject the choices of the Italian government e Business Square pay the bill, -3,72%, 20.711 points. The banks, the most exposed to sovereign debt, are going down, while the spread is soaring: Bpm bank, -9,43%; Understanding -8,44%; Bper -8,34%; Ubi -7,84%; General Bank -7,84%; Unicredit -6,73%. It should be noted that the collapse of Astaldi, -28,07%, after the presentation of the application for composition with creditors "with reserve". Stock market capitalization went from 636 to 615 billion: 20 billion less in just one day.
The only positive big cap is Saipem + 0,68%.
Landslide the bond. The 3,15-year yield rises to XNUMX% and lo spread with the Bund it rose by 11,01%, reaching 267.20 basis points. The differential also widens on the two-year bond and in the session it exceeds 165 basis points, growing by about 40 points, proof that the country is reluctantly betting on the country even in the short term.
The decision di set the deficit/GDP ratio at 2,4%. in the update note to the Def, it appears to be an open challenge to the European Union and undermines investor confidence, producing a contagion effect on continental banks. The other European lists also close in the red: Frankfurt -1,5% Paris -0,85% Madrid -1,45% London -0,47% Zurich -0,38%. The appeal of the'EUR, which loses positions against the dollar, exchange rate in the 1,162 area. wall street, after a subdued opening due to financials, worried by the Italian crisis, it found its way up by mid-morning and is currently moving in positive territory.
Oil continues to grind gains, pending sanctions on Iran: Brent rises by 1,77%, 82,36 dollars a barrel.
However, the protagonist of this black Friday is above all Piazza Affari and the turmoil may not stop there. After approval by the Italian parliament, the programmatic document of the budget law must be presented by 15 October to the European Commission, which in turn must give a preliminary go-ahead by 30 November. The judgments of S&P and Moody's on Italy's rating are expected at the end of October (currently BBB with stable outlook for S&P and Baa2 for Moody's). A program to shake your wrists. The first political appointment to understand what's going on is Monday in Luxembourg, at the monthly meeting of the finance ministers of the Eurogroup which will be attended by the minister of the Economy Giovanni Tria, while on Tuesday there is the meeting of the 28 EU ministers.
The bar set at 2,4% could lead the EU to request further measures. "We have no interest in opening a crisis - says the Commissioner for Economic Affairs, Pierre Moscovici - but we also have no interest in preventing Italy from reducing its debt, which remains explosive". And then: “if Italians continue to get into debt, what happens? The interest rate rises, debt service becomes higher. The Italians must not be mistaken: every euro more for debt is one euro less for highways, for schools, for social justice". The yellow-green government, however, thinks differently: "I am very confident that when the markets will be able to know our maneuver in detail - says Prime Minister Giuseppe Conte - the spread will be absolutely consistent with the fundamentals of our economy". According to Prometeia, however, the choice of 2,4% will have no positive effect on growth. Finally, for the economists of Bank Of America it is not so important to focus on the number of the deficit/GDP ratio, but to fully understand on the basis of which numbers it is constructed in terms of revenue and expenditure expectations. "A credible 2,4% - they write – is better than 1,16% on unrealistic assumptions. Certainly the risk is that, when the details arrive, it will be discovered that the combination is the worst possible: 2,4% based on hypotheses that are unlikely to occur".
