The Arab Spring's hopes for change, at least in Libya, seem to find confirmation after the first free elections in the last 60 years and thanks to the performance of the oil sector and state development plans.
The Libyan people's desire for democracy clearly emerged from the high turnout for the election of members of the General National Congress which will replace the Transitional National Council which has led the country since the beginning of the civil war. The results show the victory of the liberal coalition over Muslim groups. The National Forces Alliance, in fact, obtained 39 of the 80 seats reserved for parties against 17 for the Muslim Brotherhood. This is the worst electoral performance of confessional parties in the countries of the Arab Spring.
Jibril, the former interim prime minister and leader of the NFA has announced the opening to dialogue between the political forces for the composition of a government of national unity. Despite the outcome of the elections, the balance within the Assembly is still in the balance. In fact, the Assembly is made up of 80 members belonging to political parties and 120 independent candidates which makes it virtually impossible to predict what kind of majority will be created. One of the major problems that the new Assembly will have to face will be the federalist demands claimed above all by Cyrenaica after the division of seats on a demographic basis which penalized the richest region of the country.
The good news for the Libyans comes not only from the political and administrative sphere, but also from the economy. In fact, in 2012 the country's GDP returned to growth, after the collapse due to the civil war, above all thanks to the boost from the oil sector (which will return to pre-crisis levels by the end of the year) and public spending plans. In fact, the Government has prepared for 2012 a spending plan of around 21 billion aimed at maintaining food and energy subsidies and raising public wages; to this figure must be added the 12 billion destined for reconstruction projects. The medium-term plans focus on strengthening infrastructure and the financial sector to increase diversification and ensure greater independence from oil sector trends.
As regards the business climate, there has been an important improvement due to the gradual removal of international sanctions and regulatory changes on restrictive measures against natural and legal persons associated with the previous regime. However, the persistence of situations of tension and violence between tribes and regions does not yet guarantee a level of security such as to allow foreign companies to invest without discomfort.
