The divisions within the National Transitional Council (NTC) that is about to seize power in Tripoli they do not seem likely to produce a discontinuity in terms of energy policies with the Gaddafi regime. This is what the markets are betting on, which this morning after an uphill start suddenly "turned around", rewarding Milan (+2,29%), or the financial center of the country closest to the colonel's regime and above all Eni (+ 4,81%), or the oil company that at the beginning of the civil war seemed to have everything to lose and nothing to gain from a regime change in Tripoli.
But it seems that there is also good news in sight for the other Italian companies active in Libya: "We are providing for an amendment, I don't know if it is a maneuver - explained the Minister of Economic Development, Paolo Romani, at the Communion and Liberation meeting - for the hundreds of companies that have been damaged in Libya”. In any case, Italy "will continue to maintain the part it has always had in this country, even with the new government".
On the political front however, at least for the moment, there is not even the shadow of a similar consensus. When a tyrant is the expression of nothing but his own interests, his own families and some tribes, among his opponents there is room for everyone: socialists and businessmen, secularists and Islamists, opponents of the first hour and last minute turnarounds. Not to mention the militias, who without too many political, ideological or spiritual superstructures have contributed at the local level to bring down the regime, often not sparing criticism of the acclaimed strategic-military approximation of the armed wing of the Council.
It is also for this reason that the future of Libya and of the political relations that bind it to the rest of the world is studded with question marks. Will the rebels be able to avoid a power vacuum similar to that following the fall of Saddam Hussein in Iraq? Will they resist the temptation to wipe out the bureaucracy that served under Gaddafi to make way for their own men? Will the community of Libyan expatriates who during the decades of the regime acquired, working and traveling in the rest of the world, skills that cannot be found in the country today be taken into consideration or will they be branded as an elite far from popular feeling?
And above all, what role will the tribes that for centuries have been the main players in the struggle for power in the North African country play? What has happened to Gaddafi's supporters in the mountains in the west of the country, in Benghazi and around the city of Misrata does not bode well. How worrying is the thirst for revenge of the Obedi, the tribe to which General Abdul Fattah Younes belonged, first a strong man of the regime, then commander in chief of the forces hostile to Gaddafi and then a victim of his own duplicity and of the climate of suspicion that has been pervading for some time among the winners.
For the moment, the NTC of Benghazi has wisely insisted on its "transitional" nature, explaining how once the war is won it will give life to a government of national unity and that the seat that will host it - so as to dispel the fear of a city taking over on the other – it will be Tripoli. Whether in the overexcited post-victory climate it will be easy to keep faith with good intentions nobody knows.
The few certainties after Gaddafi have to do with the United States, not at all interested, after the experiences in Afghanistan and Iraq, in settling down in the third unstable and divided Muslim country within ten years. It will therefore be Europe's turn to back up the new government and it is to be imagined that in the next few hours diplomacies (the official ones, because the commercial ones, as Eni demonstrates, seem to have had a lot to do in recent months) will have a lot to do. It will also be up to them to ensure that the prophecy of a "catastrophic success" does not come true. Proving the same effectiveness, vision and unity of purpose that the private sector is showing and on which the stock exchanges are betting this morning.
