In recent weeks, 19 countries have raised protective barriers on agriculture for an amount equal to 17,3% of the calories exchanged in the world, with clear repercussions on the rise in inflation. But, warns WFP (the United Nations Food Programme), the worst is yet to come. Thanks, of course, to the Russian invasion of Ukraine, which jeopardized the sowing and harvesting of one of the most fertile areas of the planet, with dramatic effects for Africa and the Middle East, the main customers of the millions of tons (for now more than 20, soon at least double) of wheat, corn and sunflower which, due to the war, will not be able to travel on the Black Sea routes. For the Fao, the export block puts food consumption at risk of 47 million poor people in the southern hemisphere.
And so, on the economic level, alongside the consequences for theenergy embargo, another front opens up, that of hunger. potentially much more dramatic and dangerous, which could trigger new waves of migration towards Europe, as already hypothesized by the Monetary Fund.
Meanwhile, while waiting to find a corrective to the situation in time, i prices of agricultural commodities, already under pressure from the increase in energy, have risen: the ton of soft wheat rose from 294 euros on the eve of the invasion to 390 euros on 3 May, that of maize from 265 to 349. But the increase in prices does not end up in the pockets of the producers, exhausted by the increase in the prices of fertilizers, closely linked to those of natural gas, and feed: in Argentina, another granary of the world, many producers threaten not to proceed with sowing because the costs ( +55% in dollars) are unsustainable.
Ukraine granary of the world: the secrets of the boom
Thus another milestone of the global economy is shattered, perhaps one of the world's most striking successes since the end of the Cold War. Over the past ten years, the volume of grain exports from Kyiv has grown threefold to represent 12% of the world market for wheat, 16% for maize, 18% for barley, 20% for rapeseed and 50% of sunflower oil. "Last year we produced 106 million tons of wheat, our historic record - recalls Nykolay Gorbachov, president of industrialists in the sector - and we exported 70% of it". Main destinations Egypt, Indonesia, Turkey and Pakistan. But other countries, green Lebanon, Libya, Yemen and Tunisia have a degree of dependency of more than 90%.
The boom in Ukrainian agriculture is the result of the rapid transformation of the system, which in recent years has gone from Soviet stagnation to market integration: the climate , geography combined with an efficient organization of work fueled by capital arriving from almost all sides, attracted by constantly rising returns: 25% more in 2021 alone. And this explains the massive investments by sovereign wealth funds , from that of Saudi Arabia (125 thousand hectares) to the Chinese Cofco (800.000 hectares) up to significant holdings of American, Swedish, Dutch, French, Turkish funds and others. Merit of a low labor cost, but also of the effect of the agrarian reform which distributed the land to the peasants who lease it to large groups in exchange for investments and a part of the profits.
The system works. Indeed, in recent years it has gained speed with the use of drones (the same used today by the army), heavy investments in logistics along the territory (1.200 super silos for storing crops) and in the port areas of the Black Sea, the ideal, cheap and (once) safe outlet for exporting soft commodities. In short, a growing system. "I have the feeling - a French operator in the sector explains to Le Monde - that the very success of the capitalist transformation of Ukrainian agriculture convinced Putin to move now, before losing the possibility of asserting Russian strength". Today this formidable production machine travels by service.
Ukraine hopes to produce 60-70% of its pre-war potential, thanks also to the determination of its farmers, mindful of family stories of the horrors of the Holodomor, the great hunger of 1932-1933 imposed by the privations of the Stalinist regime.
The crisis in the agricultural world threatens the food balance of the planet
The real problem now is to get the goods to travel and avert the new effects of the war which threatens to explode the agricultural protectionism which is already affecting the world beyond the catastrophes of Donbass. It rains everywhere i prohibitions. Iran has banned the export of potatoes, Turkey that of green beans. The shortage of sunflower oil has prompted Indonesia to ban the export of palm oil, the most common substitute for the food industry (but also for shampoo). Thus far, governments have chosen to defend consumers over producers, who are much less electorally powerful.
However, the conditions have been laid for a crisis in the agricultural world that threatens the food balance of the planet. According to the Monetary Fund, the 45 countries of sub-Saharan Africa are destined to record an increase in inflation of more than 12% between now and the end of the year. Some, i.e. 8 out of 45, can offset higher expenses with higher income from Petroleum e natural gas. But the positive effect will only be partial: many countries, while producing oil, have to import petrol due to the fact that they do not have refining plants. And the higher costs of logistics, plus the increase in the cost of money that will make it more expensive (and difficult) to obtain new funds make the situation truly explosive.
