At four o'clock this morning, with the authorization of Vladimir Putin, the invasion of Ukraine presented by the Russians as "an operation intended to demilitarize and denazify the neighboring country". Shortly after his words, large explosions were heard in Kiev, Kharkiv, Odessa and other cities in Ukraine. “President Putin has chosen a premeditated war that will bring catastrophic loss of life and suffering,” said US President Joe Biden. The consequences on the markets were immediate and very serious.
THEEurostoxx anticipates a start-up with a loss of between 2% and 4% for European lists. The futures of Wall Street, already falling sharply yesterday, collapse after Russia's attack on Ukraine. The Dow Jones contract lost 2,05%, the S&P 500 contract lost 2,01% and the Nasdaq contract fell 2,46%. The fear index, the gauge that measures volatility on Wall Street, is up more than 55%.
Strong impact also on Asian bags which lose between 2% and 3%: the worst is that of Hong Kong (-3,2%). Tokyo's Nikkei, closed yesterday, -2%. CSI 300 of the Shanghai and Shenzen price lists -1,3%.
Closed indefinitely Moscow Stock Exchange.
Il Petroleum rises to 102 dollars a barrel. L'gold rockets to a high of 1.928,80 dollars an ounce, the highest since January 2021. A race also sheltered from T-bonds and decline in yields: the 1,872-year bond trades at 12, XNUMX basis points less.
Among currencies, only it yen strengthens against the dollar. L'euro trades at 1,124. The zloty of Poland loses almost 2%, the Czech crown the 1%. The ruble it's down 6% on the euro.
At this point, the tightening of sanctions against Moscow is inevitable. The consequences will be felt on gas prices and, consequently, on inflation, as well as on the banking system. In reality, however, there is no sector that can be spared from the storm: geopolitics and the economy have never been so interconnected.
Tassi, in the event of war, the ECB will "take time"
What will central banks do in an environment where the winds of war are blowing, but inflation continues to run? This is the question that operators are seeking an answer to, crushed in Europe by the increase in energy but reassured by the reduced pressure of the pandemic. According to Francois Villeroy de Galhau, governor of the Central Bank of France and member of the board of the ECB, the tensions in Ukraine should lead Eurotower to "buy time" on a possible rate hike and to maintain "flexibility" for the exit from the stimulus measures . For fellow Austrian Robert Holzmann, however, the ECB could start raising interest rates even before finishing its bond-buying program scheduled for March. The governor of the Bank of Spain, Pablo Hernandez de Cos, admits that the increases could start sooner than expected but continues to maintain that the asset purchase program will have to be closed first.
Everything in order, nothing in order, in short. The only certain fact is that the ECB, like the Fed, continues to lag behind the race in prices and long-term expectations. Yesterday, January data on inflation recorded an increase to 5,1%.
Spread at 170, Bot auction today
In this situation, the Italian secondary closes in the red. The spread rose to 170 basis points, with a 10-year BTP rate of +1,93% and a Bund of the same duration of +1,24%.
On the primary side, there is good demand and rising yields for the Short Term BTp assigned today in the Treasury auction. This is the third tranche of the BTP maturing on 29/11/2023 for an amount of 3 billion euro against a demand that has reached 4,752 billion euro. The supply-demand ratio settled at 1,58 while the yield climbed 27 cents to 0,14%. The auction regulation falls on March XNUMX next.
Today will be the turn of the six-monthly Bot, made available for 5,5 billion. On Friday it will be the turn of the medium-long term placement with a total offer of up to 8,25 billion.
Wednesday, Piazza Affari lost 0,34%, to 25.955 points, after enjoying a good rise during the session interrupted by the retreat of Wall Street in the afternoon. Frankfurt -0,4%; Paris -0,1%; Amsterdam -0,55%; Madrid -0,68%. In slight contrast London: +0,09%.
Stellantis earnings captivate the market
To give oxygen to the European price lists is the excellent Stellantis performance, +4,41% after surprising analysts with a net profit of 13,4 billion, triple compared to 2020, which will allow the board of directors to propose a total dividend of 3,3 billion (1,06 euros per share against prediction of 1,01). Brinda Exor, which will collect 475 million. Celebration, albeit more sober, also for employees, who, worldwide, will receive a bonus of 1,8 billion (450 euros per capita in Italy). Analysts rewarded the results with a rain of buys pending the illustration of the industrial plan that the CEO Carlos Tavares will give next Tuesday.
Yesterday, in a conference call, the number one of the group explained some of the secrets of the extraordinary success of the most complex fusion in the history of the four-wheel world.
Stellantis was protected from the "chaos" that has hit the automotive world amidst the chip crisis, the surge in raw materials and geopolitical storms, thanks to the ability to reduce the group's break-even point from 70/80% to less than 50%. Thanks to the interventions implemented by the Tavares team since the beginning of September, after a meeting with all the managers, the group is now able, explained the CEO, to achieve the goal of breaking even even in the face of a production in decline or even. Tavares did not specify how much the break-even margins for FCA and Peugeot have fallen but, given the overall production of the two brands similar to the previous one (6,14 million cars delivered against 5,95 million in 2020), the margin adjusted operating volume shot up to 18 billion euros with a double-digit increase (+11,8%), a result that should be repeated in 2022. Pricing power also contributed to the growth in profits: when production falls, it has explained the ceo, the offer is reduced and thus, in parallel, the need to make discounts and promotions to capture customers and thus place more cars decreases.
The exploit of Stellantis, which will present the industrial plan next week, has not given a boost to the four-wheel sector, which has slowed down in the last stages. Ferrari (+0,3%) is on positive ground, but the landslide of Iveco (-3,85%) and above all of Cnh Industrial (-6,85%) continues, affected after the presentation of the industrial plan: the slowdown weighs of investments in agribusiness in the face of a complicated global picture. Exor also misses a few shots -0,5% despite the prospect of Stellantis dividends.
Pirelli is the protagonist today after the record counts
Brembo (-2,8%) and Pirelli (-0,2%) were also down, which announced its 2021 accounts in the evening. The Bicocca-based company beat its targets: revenues of 5.331,5 million (+23,9 .815,8%), adjusted ebit of 62,8 million (+XNUMX%).
Inwit is making progress (+1,7%), supported by rumors of a possible sale of the Telecom -3,30% stake in the tower company in favor of the Ardian fund. According to Repubblica, Telecom is preparing to suspend the dividend and proceed with a new, drastic cleaning up of the accounts.
Diasorin (+3,28%) and Amplifon (+2,19%) also performed well. The list of increases stops with some utilities: A2A +1,76%, Italgas +1,05%.
Campari goes sideways (-9,7%), another hangover for Saipem
At the end of the session, the Stock Exchange canceled the positive effect of the quarterly reports. Campari swerves (-9,7%) after the group announced a flat EBIT margin in the face of a sharp increase in the cost of raw materials: the promised improvement in margins (70 points) is postponed until better times.
New collapse for Saipem (-5,2%): it is calculated that the losses accumulated in 2021 are double the current capitalization. Eni (-0,5%) and Tenaris (-1%) also fell.
Weak banks. The appeal for a risk deflates: Banco Bpm drops by 3,86% in closing, Bper -2,92%. Unicredit limits damages (-0,44%).
Alerion and gas plus, shock increases. Runs Southern Highways
On the energy front, Alerion's race continues (+6%). Meanwhile, the flight of Gas Plus continues (+13,5%), at its highest level since May 2015. The market rewards companies that can benefit from an increase in gas production to counter the effects of high energy prices. Leap of Autostrade Meridionali: +11,3% after the accounts. The concessionaire listed on Euronext Milan recorded revenues of 89,9 million euros in 2021 (+32,7%).
