An economic historian, Scott Reynold Nelson, points out a hitherto underestimated collateral damage of the war: in spring, the time for sowing, the Ukrainian lands, which together with the Russian ones ensure 12% of the world's grain, could remain uncultivated, with truly disturbing for the feeding of the planet. Meanwhile, in Moscow, a very long queue to taste the last hamburger at Mc Donald's clearly signals the decline of globalization. These too are the "collateral damages" which, according to the Brueghel institute, could cost Europe 175 billion euros: 50 billion to contain the consequences on prices; 75 billion for energy independence; 30 billion for refugees and humanitarian assistance; 3 billion for security and defense. A bloodletting that weighs a ton on the markets, which yesterday attempted a rebound.
Curb inflation in China, vote in South Korea
Asia has also tried, with little success. Stock exchanges in the East are approaching closure uncertain and volatile. Tokyo's Nikkei (+0,8%), Taipei's Taipex (+1,3%), Sidney's S&P ASX200 and Mumbai's BSE Sensex (+.8%) were positive.
Chinese stock exchanges are down, especially Hong Kong (-2%): the Chinese tech index; the Hang Seng Tech, loses 2,2%, fourth consecutive session of decline and new low. Alibaba -3,3%, Tencent -3%. CSI 300 of the Shanghai and Shenzen price lists -1,3%.
Beijing is taking the first steps in view of a mediation between Russia and Ukraine, the country in which it has made the most robust investments in agricultural land. In the video summit with French President Emmanuel Macron and German Chancellor Olaf Scholz, Chinese President Xi Jinping called for "working together" to reduce the consequences of the crisis in Ukraine and rejected the sanctions calling them "harmful for all parties".
Inflation in China shows new signs of stabilization: the consumer price index for February is confirmed at 0,9%. According to data released by the National Statistics Office, producer prices continue to slow down: +8,8% on an annual basis in February from +9,1% in January. This was the lowest figure since June, on the back of government measures to secure supplies and control soaring commodity prices on a global scale.
South Korea's financial markets are closed because of voting. The country is called to the polls for the presidential elections, on the day of the new daily record of Covid-19 cases, which shot up to 342.446 due to the spread of the Omicron variant. Polling stations will remain open until 18:00, with an additional 90 minutes dedicated only to Covid-positive voters.
The new iPhone doesn't warm up Wall Street
Nasdaq futures are up 0,5%. Yesterday, an attempt to rebound in stocks ended in a dead cat rebound: Dow Jones -0,56%, S&P 500 -0,28%. NASDAQ -0,28%.
The launch of Apple's new products did not arouse great reactions: a desktop featuring the chips created by Apple to replace those of Intel and, above all, a 5G-enabled iPhone for $429, on sale from 18 October.
Gold and oil are rising again
Oil is back on the rise: this morning WTI trades at 126 dollars a barrel, up 2,5%. After the US decisions to ban the import of oil from Russia (8% of US purchases) yesterday it was the turn of Great Britain. In London nickel trading is suspended for the whole week.
Gold up 0,4% to $2,056 an ounce. The euro is back up, up 0,2%, +0,4% yesterday.
Eurobonds arrive: Milan rejoices, then denies it
"It's a market driven by the headlines," complains Craig Erland, of Oanda, after rumors, later denied, about the forthcoming launch of Eurobonds linked to energy and defense. But the day was above all influenced by the news arriving from Washington, which throughout the day anticipated Moscow's total embargo on crude oil, a choice which, according to Russian Deputy Prime Minister Aleksiej Novak, will push crude oil up to 300 dollars a barrel. making a recession almost inevitable.
Thus, two days after the ECB directorate, the specter of stagflation in the XNUMXs took shape, a product of the upward thrust of raw materials imposed by producers on consuming countries. In this setting, Madame Lagarde has little leeway. It's easy to think that she won't waste the few weapons at her disposal in the face of the energy surge. As one analyst explains: “Not all recessions start with an oil surge. But every oil price run has resulted in a recession.” Let's get ready.
The EU tries to reduce its dependence on Russian oil
Brent and WTI futures have reached levels unthinkable until recently. North Sea oil rallied 7,6% to $132,6 a barrel; Texan crude is in the $130 area, with an increase of more than 8%.
To control prices, Germany invites the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries to increase its crude production.
Meanwhile, the European Commission says it wants to reduce gas imports from Russia by two-thirds this year and announces that, by April, it will present a legislative proposal for underground gas storages across the EU to be filled to at least 90 % of capacity by October XNUMXst of each year.
But the other raw materials are also racing. Gold gains about 3% and moves well above $2.000, around $2.055 an ounce. They push the accelerator palladium, platinum, silver and nickel.
Spread below 150, only Milan and Madrid positive
The news on Eurobonds influenced a large part of trading on the bond market. After the denial of Frans Timmersmann, vice president of the EU, the run of BTPs has slowed down, but not too much: the spread between 10-year BTPs and Bunds of equal duration falls to 149 basis points (-6,8%), with the rate of Italian stock growing less than the German one: +1,6% against +0,11%.
Milan closed on a slowdown, with an increase of 0,8%, at 22.338 basis points, thanks to the recovery of credit instruments.
Madrid also rebounded (+1,23%), the other exchange most closely linked to the performance of banks. Instead, the balance of losses since the beginning of the war in other places increased: Amsterdam -1,84%; Paris -0,32%; Frankfurt -0,1%. Flat London.
Shell apologizes for shopping with Moscow
To report Shell (+1%). The British oil company has apologized for buying gas and oil from Russia after it invaded Ukraine. Shell has declared that it no longer intends to obtain supplies from Russia.
Danone is back (-1,19%), which has so far refused to leave the Russian market: "We have a commitment to our customers", is the thesis of the multinational.
Strong increase in Société Générale (+5,7%) after reaching a maximum of 10,5% in the morning.
Saipem takes flight in the final
On a day marked by a flurry of twists while awaiting the maneuvers on oil, some of the most targeted stocks of the past few weeks come to light in Piazza Affari. In the lead figure Saipem (+13,2%), pushed up in the final by the block on US purchases of Russian oil. Eni (+2%) and Tenaris (+3,2%) also advanced.
Orcel confirms the dividend, Unicredit restarts
Unicredit extends, confirming in the midst of the Ukrainian crisis the proposed cash dividend for 2021 of 1,2 billion and share buybacks of up to 2,58 billion. The bank led by Andrea Orcel has chosen to turn to the market at the end of a day of recovery on the stock market front (the stock recorded +6,12%, at 9,02 euros), but still deeply uncertain on a geopolitical level. Bper and Bpm also rose, over 5%, and Mediobanca (+2,2%). Understanding +1.2%.
They also recover insurance and managed. Generali +1,95%: Claudio Costamagna will lead the Caltagirone/Del Vecchio list in the battle for the leadership of the Lion. Unipol flies: +6,95%.
Tim rebounds, buyback for Exor
Tim also rebounds (+5,9%) pending a decision by Kkr on the launch of the takeover bid.
Also in evidence Exor (+2,88%), which announced the launch of a buyback program.
Rai Way, Viale Mazzini soon below 50%
To report Rai Way (+5,86%): according to rumors, Prime Minister Mario Draghi has already signed the decree that will allow Rai to reduce its stake in the tower company below 50%. The decree should now be approved by the Court of Auditors, before being published in the Official Gazette. For Equita, “the goal is to create the conditions for consolidation in the broadcasting tower sector and therefore integration with Ei Towers (2% F60i and 40% Mfe). The path chosen by the Government would be the one already experimented with Terna and Snam, the energy networks, ie maintaining an adequate public participation in society”.
Ferragamo (-1,5%) does not make forecasts for 2022
At the bottom of the index are the most defensive stocks. Diasorin sells almost 5% on the day of entry into the US subsidiary Liminex. Interpump (-4,1%) and Amplifon (-4,7%) also down. Ferragamo also loses ground (-1,5%) after the 2021 accounts, closed with a net profit for the period of 81 million euros, a decisive recovery compared to the loss of 72 million recorded in 2020, on revenues of 1,14 .1 billion. But the company, which also has a small exposure to the Russian market (less than XNUMX%) did not provide guidance for the rest of the year.
