There is little good news: the war is raging, economies are slowing down, rates, under the pressure of inflation, signal the risk of a recession. But Taurus doesn't get scared. Equity lists report widespread increases everywhere, favored here and there by signs of recovery such as those released yesterday with Nike's accounts (+2,2%), up sharply due to the positive forecasts of the board. Is this attitude justified? In reality, once the negative aspects of oil and raw materials have been priced in, the stock exchanges have taken note of the more rigid attitude of the Fed and have drawn the consequences: financial stocks rise and the dollar strengthens, to the benefit of the yen and , to a lesser extent, the euro. Waiting for a geopolitical change that is long in coming.
Dollar/yen at highest since 2015. Nikkei up 3%
The most positive note comes this morning from Tokyo. Supported by an extremely favorable exchange rate for Japanese industry, the Nikkei is up 3%: the dollar-yen cross this morning reached new medium-term highs at 121,1. The exchange rate is at levels not seen since the end of 2015. The market appreciates the expansionary monetary policy confirmed by the Japanese Central Bank.
Hong Kong's Hang Seng index is also up (+1,7%). The Tech Index rises 2,2% with Alibaba up 6%.
Shanghai +0,5%. Over 5 thousand Covid infections
The CSI 300 index of Shanghai and Shenzhen is up 0,5%. In China, the new cases of Covid-5.136 registered on Tuesday rose to 19, up on the almost 4.900 of the previous day.
The Evergrande dossier reopens, the most indebted real estate company in the world: approximately 300 billion, of which 22 with foreign creditors. The company has announced it will not release financial data due to "complications with the audit of its financial books." Evergrande said he is working on a restructuring plan that he intends to implement by the end of July. Executive Director Shawn Siu asked investors not to take aggressive action in anticipation.
The Treasury at 2,38%. The rise in yields has never been so strong
Wall Street futures moved little after a sharp rise in the session: Nasdaq +1,75, S&P 500 +1,13%, Dow Jones +0,75%.
The 2,38-year Treasury Note, as a result of the strong sell-off over the last two days, yielded 2,17% from 2,18%. The two-year rate goes to 7%, +143 basis points. Since the beginning of the year, the yield on the two-year Treasury has risen by 1984 basis points: to find a quarter of similar moves, one has to go back to XNUMX.
Technologists are rallying (+1,4%), however down by 10% since the beginning of the year. Fly Tesla (+7,9%): yesterday the first car came out of the new factory on the outskirts of Berlin, the fifth of Elon Musk's company.
Oil on a roller coaster overnight: Brent at 117 dollars this morning, Wti at 110 dollars. Gold just moved at 1.921 dollars.
The economy slows down. Gentiloni: "The EU's response soon"
There is no recession for now, but the economy is slowing down, at least in Italy, where the government should reduce the 2022 growth estimate to around 3% from the 4,7% indicated last autumn, as anticipated by the undersecretary to the Maria Cecilia Guerra Treasury. But the novelty, widely expected, is offset by the tendency, underlined by EU Economy Commissioner Paolo Gentiloni, to pool more debt to face the challenges created by the Russian invasion.
“I think the real decision on these kinds of measures probably won't happen right away. I believe – adds Gentiloni – that the real discussion will take place in a few weeks, when we will have a clearer vision of the economic impact of this crisis”.
But, while awaiting a pronouncement on fiscal policy, said the governor of the Bank of France Villeroy de Galhau, for monetary policy "the time has come to take off the accelerator and focus on underlying inflation in the medium term". While waiting for the bankers to think about it, the market has already started moving.
Btp and Bund skyrocket. Today a new CctEu
Yields on BTPs and Bunds are up, in view of a more restrictive stance by central banks. The 10-year BTP rate rose to +2,04% and that of the Bund to +0,51%.
The Btp/Bund spread closed at 153 basis points (+1 point). On the eve of the opening of the month-end auctions, today the mandate could arrive to the banks for the syndicated issue of a CctEu expiring in October 2030.
The EU yesterday placed over 12 billion euros in a dual tranche bond via syndicate, with requests exceeding 94 billion.
Milan (+0,98% to 24.533 basis points) confirmed its upward trend thanks to the driving force of financials. Paris +1,17%; Frankfurt +1,04%; Amsterdam +1,38%; Madrid +1,1%. Outside the bloc, London (+0,37%) and Zurich (+0,43%) are lagging behind.
Ok to the Porsche IPO: value 90 billion
Volkswagen rose 0,72% after the company and Ferdinand Porsche's heirs confirmed the Porsche IPO, which the group values at least 90 billion euros. The offer, to be made by 2022, will concern 25% of the share capital.
Russian ruble gains 2% against the dollar. The Russian Finance Ministry has fulfilled its obligations on the payment of the coupon on a Eurobond maturing in 2029 in the amount of $65,63 million.
Poste Italiane runs before the accounts
On the eve of the results and the update of the business plan, Poste Italiane rose by 2,62%, supported by the rise in government bond yields, among other things.
SocGen promotes Intesa but holds back Unicredit
Also followed by bank securities, which are affected by expectations of higher bond yields: Unicredit are up 1,69%, Intesa Sanpaolo +1.62%, Banco Bpm +1,54%. SocGen prefers Intesa to UniCredit due to the lower exposure in Russia with the recommendation on Intesa which switches to "buy" from "hold" and on UniCredit to "hold" from "buy".
In managed Banca Mediolanum +2,58%.
Ferrari at full sprint: 500 million investments
Ferrari extends (+2,55%) on the day of an important innovation agreement which provides for investments of 500 million euros, hirings (250 entries in the coming months) and the expansion of the Maranello plant, where Ferrari has purchased new land to expand the site. These are the pillars of the agreement signed by the Casa del Cavallino Rampante with the Ministry for Economic Development, Invitalia and the Emilia Romagna Region, which provides for public support with respect to the 2022-2025 plan. The intervention of the ministry will reach up to 106 million.
Stellantis also rises: +1,47%.
Atlantia at the top, US order for Maire
Atlantia stands out at the top of the index (+3%). Instead, Eni lost momentum during the session (+17%). Better Tenaris (+0,08%), still down Saipem (-0,56), black jersey of the blue chip index.
Maire Tecnimont flies (+3,97%) after the award of the 230 million dollar project for a blue ammonia plant in the United States.
Leonardo sells Ges to the USA for 450 million dollars
Leonardo slows down from the maximum (+0,4%) after the group confirmed the 2022 guidance for net debt of 3,1 billion euros and announced that the US subsidiary DRS has signed a binding agreement for the sale of the Global Enterprise Solutions business (Jesus) to Ses for 450 million dollars. According to Banca Akros, “the news is very positive because it virtually allows the risk of a capital increase to be set aside.
Luxury is down sharply: Cucinelli -3,63% ahead of Ferragamo (-1,77%) and Tod's (-1,39%). In the rest of the list, the IVS group shines (+4,84%), one of the European leaders among vending machines: with the reopening of the offices after the pandemic, corporate coffee is once again a bargain.
