MARKETS STILL HOSTAGE OF THE ATHENS REBUS
MONTI, AFTER THE TAXI, TALKED WITH THE EUROPEAN NODES
Take or leave. Charles Dallara, the head of delegation of the private creditors of Greece (200 billion bonds) reiterated that his proposal is not negotiable at this point. Creditors will not go beyond a 65-70% cut. or the transformation of current securities into thirty-year bonds with an initial coupon of 3,1% and a final coupon of 4,75%. The agreement seemed to have been made on this basis already on Friday, but in the last meeting, according to reports from the Financial Times, the European authorities would have stiffened on a further cut: the final coupon must not exceed 3,5%, which involves a "voluntary" cut of more than 70%.
The result is that the Greek finance minister, the heavyweight Evangelos Venizelos, will appear today at the meeting of EU ministers without the agreement between the Greek state and private creditors, necessary to avoid the default of Athens in March, when a tranche of 14,5 billion Hellenic bonds will mature . The choice whether or not to accept the creditors' proposal is at this point up to the European Union and the Monetary Fund.
Waiting for the Greek rebus to dissolve, the Asian stock exchanges that have already opened their doors (Hong Kong and China are missing, for the Lunar New Year holiday) are holding their breath: Tokyo unchanged, futures on the Standard & Poor's 500 down. It is easy to predict that nervousness will affect the European stock exchanges: Greece's default has not yet been averted. At this point, indeed, there is a growing fear of a worsening of the crisis in Portugal, rapidly deteriorating after the sovereign debt was downgraded to junk bonds.
In this frame Tensions also rise between the Franco-German duo and the United Kingdom. EU Commissioner Michel Barnier is preparing today in London, in a long-awaited speech to the City, to present an invitation to "play the European game" without further asking for exemptions and opposing vetoes to the activity of regulating the financial markets. David Cameron, for his part, is preparing to contest the Franco-German request to revise downwards some requirements set by Basel 3.
In this context, yesi opens a precious space for the mediation action of Mario Monti, now promoted among the top players. The Financial Times underlines the different path of Italy and Greece, until a few weeks ago confused in a common crisis. But the link is not entirely dissolved: a failed agreement on the Greek debt could prematurely compromise the rally of Italian government bonds, with the Btp 10 falling on Friday to yields of 6,21% (-19 basis points) and the spread with the German Bund reduced to 429 points. The yield on the two-year BTP fell to 3,70%.
Meanwhile, while the government is preparing to face Parliament's examination of the liberalization package and the even more complex negotiations on the labor market are opening, Corriere della Sera clearly announces an anti-debt plan: essentially, the State is about to sell Fintecna and other publicly controlled companies to the CDP to then use the money (50 billion in the first tranche) to purchase outstanding BTP issues, which have now slipped to attractive prices. For now, the newspaper acknowledges, it's little more than an idea. It is useless to ask the executive for confirmation, faithful to the delivery of "first you do, then you announce".
THE FED'S TRANSPARENCY OPERATION TAKES OFF
BERNANKE'S FORECASTS UP TO 2016 ON TUESDAY
It stands out among the events of the week the monthly meeting of the Federal Reserve. The wait, this time, is that of great occasions. For the first time in its history, in fact, at the end of the Foc, the forecasts on interest rates, the economy and inflation will be published by all the bankers taking part in the meeting chaired by Ben Bernanke between now and 2016. A vision broad-based strategy, therefore, which has an explicit objective: Bernanke intends to convince the markets that rates will remain low, indeed close to zero, for the next five years. A form of communication to investors to abandon inflationary fears or further delay investments because they are caught in an imaginary liquidity trap: moral suasion is destined, in his view, to be more effective than another QE3.
Notes from the global economy that turns its back on the Old Continent. The Beny Stinmetz group, owner of the Sierra Leone diamond mines which powers, among others, Tiffany, has decided to go public. But not in London, so far the obligatory market for precious and raw materials, but in Hong Kong.
Meanwhile a new tycoon has entered Hollywood with aggressive aims and large capitals. Mister Bruno Wu, head of a consortium of Chinese private investors, intends to go shopping among the majors. First target: Summit Entertainment, the group that produced Twilight and which holds control of Miramax.
INSIDE MALACALZA AND MISTER GEOX, LESS HEAVY
THE MAP OF THE NEW UNICREDIT TAKES SHAPE
Exams, you know, never end. In addition to fallout from the negotiation on the euro Piazza Affari is planning some important tests: the impact of the liberalization decree, first of all, with its repercussions on listed companies (Eni, Snam, Atlantia in the front row); the final stages of the Unicredit capital increase; the definition of Edipower governance agreements.
Countdown to the increase in Piazza Cordusio. The operation will end on Friday the 27th, probably without having to resort to the intervention of the guarantee consortium. In the meantime, accounts are already being made on new equity balances between new subscribers and waivers, even partial, of the old ones. The share of some historical shareholders is reduced, such as Carlo Pesenti's Italimobiliare, which subscribed to only 20% of the rights, or such as Luigi Maramotti. Instead, Leonardo Del Vecchio underwrote the part of him while there would be some "new entries": the Malacalza family, Mario Moretti Polegato of Geox, Diego Della Valle himself. The share of some Foundations (Veron, Carimonte and Manodori) is reduced, Banco di Sicilia has sold its rights. The participation of Crt and of the Treviso-based CassaMarca remained unchanged. The increase of Al Aabar, the Abu Dhabi fund which will become the first shareholder with a 6,5% stake, is expected, the presence of Libyan shareholders will be reduced, Avibva and Allianz will keep their shares.
In the spotlight today, the Atlantia stock: the company passed the examination of the liberalizations unscathed. A new rebound can be expected, after the eloquent +5,3% on Friday. Also beware of the repercussions of the temporary divorce between Eni and Snam which will have to start the separation operation within six months.
THE UNKNOWN CESARINA ON UNIPOL-FONSAI
In Week the Unipol Fondiaria operation passes to the examination of the respective boards of directors. Today, in the meantime, it is being examined by the Coop meeting, on whose shoulders the financial burden of the deal will fall. Then the top management of Finsoe and the board of directors of Unipol will meet. Finally, at the end of a week punctuated by the due diligence on the accounts of the Florentine company, it will be up to the Fondiaria Sai board of directors to say yes to the deal: But the operation still looms over the resistance of Salvatore Ligresti. In addition to the substantial severance pay, the engineer claims control of an old love, the Cesarina agricultural estate on the outskirts of Rome, already sold to Sai at an amateurish price.
A decisive day also for Edipower. By tomorrow, the date scheduled for the board meeting, A2A and Iren will try to smooth out the many obstacles that remain in the way of defining shared governance for the company acquired by Edison.
