In order to facilitate the reception of migrants by European countries, the European Commission has envisaged, in the context of budget flexibility, to agree to a deviation from the public deficit target to the extent of the expenses incurred for the reception itself . As part of the evaluation of the 2016 Stability Bill (Stability Bill), the Commission specified that the total expenditure for migrants supported by Italy will not be excluded from the constraints of the Stability and Growth Pact, but only the increase in expenditure compared to the previous year. This is a penalizing assessment for Italy which for 2016 expects the same expenditure as in 2015 (about 3,2 billion), which however was equal to 2,5 times the average incurred in the three-year period 2011-2013. The Commission has only excluded from the constraints of the Pact the contribution that European countries will pay to Turkey for migrants from Syria.
The treatment of expenditure for migrants appears to be in evident contradiction with the dynamics of migratory flows in recent years, when Italy and Spain recorded the highest increases in the incidence of the stock of immigrants (resident foreigners) on the total population. Starting from the end of the 90s, when the acceleration in the influx of immigrants was recorded, this incidence more than tripled: from 2,4% in 2000 to 8,2% in 2013 (for a total of 4,9 million immigrants, which rose to over 5 million in 2015). According to ISTAT projections, it will reach 11,4% in 2020; in some provinces it is already approaching 20% (Milan, Brescia and Piacenza are between 18% and 19%). The incidence in 2013 is immediately below that observed in Spain (10,7%) and Germany (9,5%), but in the latter country the share had remained almost stable over time (8,9% in 2000) .
In the near future, Germany too, which is receiving a large number of migrants, will see this incidence grow considerably, as will happen in other EU countries, due to the deterioration of the political situation in the Middle East and, above all, to the growing demographic pressure in all of Africa (where the population is expected to double in the next 40 years). Furthermore, the European Commission, in the assessment of the stability bill, specified that the expenses for refugees cannot be considered one-off and therefore cannot be excluded from the calculation of the structural budget balances, contrary to what was assumed in the update to the DEF by the Italian government. This leads to a worsening of the balance itself and therefore requires a greater fiscal correction. These expenditures will be taken into account only within the limit of the increase compared to the previous year and only in the ex-post assessment of the adjustment path towards the medium-term objective, based on the data transmitted by the Italian authorities.
This is a way of dealing with the issue that does not appear organic or farsighted or in line with the trend of migratory flows. Instead, it could represent a useful ground for experimenting with an embryo of European fiscal policy.
