Dreams sometimes come true. For the Fed (but also for Wall Street) the dream is an economy capable of sustaining the increase in rates without slowing growth. But, in the middle of the electoral campaign, there isn't much room for dreams: a rate hike risks influencing Hillary Clinton's run, better postpone the decision to December, with the polls closed. This is the prediction of the Stock Exchanges on the eve of the opening meeting in Jackson Hole, where Janet Yellen will speak on Friday.
And Europe? Benoit Coeure, a member of the ECB directorate, speaking of the reforms that are slow to arrive, said: “If nothing happens the central bank will have to do more”. The economy is improving, but too little and too slowly, is Frankfurt's diagnosis a few weeks before the institute's top meeting. Whatever happens in Jackson Hole, European Qe will continue.
The Stock Exchanges, awaiting the decisions of the bankers, are moving upwards. Proceed carefully Wall Street, one step away from new records: the Dow Jones rises by 0,1%, S&P 500 +0,2% just 5 points from the historical record. The Nasdaq (-0,3%) closed at 5.260,08, one step away from the all-time highs.
To favor the rise is the boom in the real estate market, at trading levels not seen for nine years. New home sales jumped 12,4% to 654.000 units, the sharpest month-over-month increase since 2010. Luxury homebuilder Toll Brothers (+1,5%) announced growth of 23,5% in quarterly revenues, supported by higher sales and home prices.
Technology stocks are on the rise: Apple Lossless Audio CODEC (ALAC), (+0,6%) focuses on the health and wellness sector by acquiring Gliimpse, a company specialized in the management and sharing of personal medical data. Amazon (+0,4%) is working on a subscription music service that will cost around $5 a month. Consumer electronics chain Best Buy climbed 19,6% after sharp increases in revenue and profits.
Back to climb the Petroleum. Brent +1,5% has once again gone below the 50 dollar level; Iran has said it is willing to consider a freeze on oil production. At Piazza Affari Eni rises by 1,3%. Saipem (+4,6%) rebounds from previous declines. But the stock remains among the worst on the list: the drop has been 58% since January.
Modest variations on Asian bags: weak yen favors Tokyo upside +0,5%, Chinese stocks weak. Hong Kong loses 0,7%.
The shock of earthquake tonight it will weigh on the session in Piazza Affari. A weak opening is expected for the other European lists. Yesterday's session was comforted by the good news coming from the PMI index. Business confidence in the euro area improved to 53,3 from 53,2 in July, remaining on a seven-month high: so far Brexit has not caused any particular damage to the continental economy. “ECB QE could be extended beyond March 2017,” JP Morgan's Greg Fuzesi said after the data was released. But in September, according to the analyst, "the ECB will stall", adopting a "dove-like" tone.
Triumphal ride of Milanese price list, which closed at 16.778 points, up 2,5% on trading of 1,75 billion. Exceeding the technical threshold of 16.700 points favored purchases. The other European lists are positive but with much more modest progress: Madrid + 1,39% Frankfurt + 0,99% Paris + 0,81%. London closes at +0,66%.
At the sectoral level, it was the banks, with the Stoxx index up 2,4%. The Stoxx index of insurance companies rose by 2%.
Lo spread between Btp and Bund it rises to 124 (+4 basis points). The Spanish "card" is doing better: the Bono/Bund gap is 104 basis points (+2 compared to the previous day). Portugal remains under pressure over DBRS downgrade risk.
It was at the center of the market's attention Unicredit (+6,6%), which reversed Friday's losses. There are several reasons for the rally. In the coming days, according to Reuters, an offer for 40,1% of Pekao bank by PZU, the leading Polish insurance company, could arrive. From the 10% sale, the institute had collected 750 million euros last month.
Banca Imi writes: “We believe that the sale of Bank Pekao can partially compensate for the need for capital which we estimate at 7 billion euro. But leaving Poland would reduce the group's long-term growth opportunities”. The hold rating and the target price of 2 euro have been confirmed”.
The sale reduces the possibility of a new placement of FinecoBank, up 8% (best blue chip of the day).
Furthermore, Moody's promoted the outlook of Austrian banks from negative to stable, news which also involves Bank of Austria, controlled by the Italian bank. The rating agency expects stable asset quality for Austrian banks, with loans.
Lastly, Consob updates revealed that Capital Research and Management Company holds 5,082% of the institute's capital in the context of discretionary asset management activities.
The driving force of the bank in Piazza Gae Aulenti has favored the rebound of the sector: Understanding + 5% Mount Paschi +3,6% and Where's Banca +7%. Among the insurance Generali +4,5% and Unipol Sai + 3,4%.
Mediaset +4,3%. A share of Mediaset Premium could be taken over by an investment fund, writes Il Corriere della Sera this morning. Mediobanca is working on the operation. Meanwhile, yesterday Fininvest filed a writ of summons with the Court of Milan against Vivendi for damages suffered as a shareholder of Mediaset asking for 570 million euros. This was stated in a note from the Berlusconi family holding company after Mediaset announced on Friday that it had filed a summons against Vivendi with the Milan court to protect the execution of the contract entered into between the two companies last April for the sale of premiums.
In the deed - aimed at obtaining that Vivendi be ordered to fully comply with the shareholders' agreement attached to the contract signed with Mediaset on 8 April - "Fininvest is asking in any case for compensation for the serious damages already suffered", reads the press release. “These damages amount to a figure of no less than 570 million euros, correlated among other things to the decrease in value of the Mediaset shares as a result of the incident, the non-appreciation of the same if the execution of the contract had been carried out, as well as to the very evident damage to the image”.
