THE FED: RATES AHEAD SO, NO QE.
THE BAGS FLY, THE HUNGER OF BUND BRAKES
Go on like this. Ben Bernanke he confirms the Fed's monetary policy but dismisses the hypothesis of new extraordinary interventions which, in his opinion, would have "modest" effects on the employment front but a major impact on inflation which is showing signs of recovery. Thus, “exceptionally low” rates through 2014 (if not beyond) but none Quantitative Easing 3 at the gates. This is the summary of the two days of the US central bank, which also recognizes that the fall in unemployment will continue at a reduced pace. According to the forecasts of the Washington panel, the number of jobless will still amount to 2014% in 6,7. In 2012, GDP growth will range between 2,4 and 2,9%, to then rise to 3,1% next year and to 3,6% in 2014.
La Germany moves to neutralize the Hollande effect and rediscovers the role of Mario Monti and his dossier on "development in rigour". While waiting for the diplomatic work to produce the first fruits the governor of the ECB, Mario Draghi, underlined from Brussels that European growth is still modest. The European Central Bank, he added, has provided liquidity to the banking system, "bringing it closer to the real economy". About the president Mario Draghi he is "confident" that the banks will use this liquidity precisely to do their job, that is to provide credit to businesses and households, even if "the ECB cannot intervene on the use that banks make of liquidity: it is their prerogative".
Curbs the Tokyo Stock Exchange -0,20% after an upward session. The indications coming from the Federal Reserve and the projections of a slowdown in US growth have slowed down purchases The Hang Seng of Hong Kong remains in positive territory +0,51%.
Apple's quarterly +9%, gave Wall Street wings: the S&P500 closes at 1,36%, the Nasdaq runs at +2,30%. More modest was the growth of the Dow Jones +0,69%, which does not include the Apple title in the basket. Orders for durable goods in March fell by 4,2%, worse than the -1,7% expected by economists.
Memorable day also for the European Stock Exchanges. The best place was that of Milan, where the FtseMib index closed up by 2,9%. Paris gained 2%. Frankfurt and Madrid both rose by 1,7%. Little movement in London (+0,1%).
The climate is also improving on the government bond market: the yield on the ten-year BTP fell to 5,61%, the spread with the Bund narrowed to 387 (-10 basis points) also because the auction of the German thirty-year was not a success. Germany placed 2,4 billion euros of Bunds with a 30-year maturity at a yield of 2,41%, down from the previous 2,61%. The Berlin Debt Agency, which had a target for this issue of 3 billion euros, released a note explaining that the offer was not fully covered due to an extremely uncertain and volatile market climate.
Great day for Fiat Industrial +6,9% thanks to the US subsidiary Cnh. The group closed the first quarter with a group trading profit of 435 million euros, well above analysts' expectations despite the weakness of Iveco and Fpt. The net profit for the three months stands at 207 million (from 114 million in the same period of 2011), the turnover at 5,8 billion (+9,3%). The group confirms its 2012 targets, which envisage turnover of approximately 25 billion, trading profit of 1,9-2,1 billion, net profit of 900 million, net industrial debt of 1-1,2 billion, cash and cash equivalents of over 4 billion, Capex at 1,2-1,4 billion. Fiat gains 3,5% and Pirelli 2%. Today there will be the Lingotto quarterly.
Finmeccanica is up by 7,7%, the market is betting on a short-term settlement of the damages caused by the latest judicial storm on the top management of the holding company.
stm, supported by the promotion to "buy" by Société Générale (but demoted by UBS) gains 1,7%.
In Milan, as well as in Frankfurt, Paris and Madrid, a happy day for the banks. Unicredit rises by 6,7%, Intesa by 3,7%, Banco Popolare by 5,8%, Ubi even + 8,3%, Pop Milano +7,2%, MontePaschi + 4,6%.
While the Wti-type oil trades at 104,1 dollars a barrel (+0,5%), Eni salt by 2%, Saipem by 2,1% e Tenaris of 3%.
Rosneft and Eni signed an agreement in the presence of Russian Prime Minister Vladimir Putin to jointly develop new fields in Russia's Barents Sea and Black Sea areas with estimated recoverable reserves of 36 billion barrels, equivalent to 14 months of global crude oil consumption .
Eni will hold 33,33% of the joint venture with Rosneft. The agreement may not lead to commercial production of crude oil for years, but on the one hand it allows Eni to set foot in an unexplored and strategically important province, on the other it ensures Russia the capital it needs for long-term projects in oil field.
Telecom Italia rally +3,6%. In the meantime, Telecom Italia Media is flying +13% after the CEO Giovanni Stella, during the meeting, anticipated that on the occasion of the presentation of the first quarter results, scheduled for May 9, the company could announce the entry of a new partner. Stella added that the new partner could be chosen in a competitive auction. Mediaset also rallying +7,1%
Other important days are announced for theFonsai-Unipol transaction: today the Fonsai board of directors meets, tomorrow it's Premafin's turn. The exchanges of the operation could be defined within the weekend. But first it will be necessary to complete the Fonsai independent committee, which will be responsible for evaluating the asstes. Sator and Palladio ask that the new councilor Salvatore Bragantini be inserted, the majority, for now, has stalled.
