THE BTP BIENNIAL AUCTION PUSHES THE STOCK MARKET
BASEL 3, WE CHANGE. AND BANKS FLY
The Fed's announcements and the outcome of the Italian Btp auction support the markets. in Milan theFtseMib index rises by 1,28% to 16.043 bp%. Rises of 1,01% for the London index, Paris +0,99% and Frankfurt +1,26%.
The Treasury has placed on the market all 4,5 billion new Ctz maturing January 2014, offering a yield of 3,763%, down sharply from the previous 4,853%: demand was 1,71 times supply. Via XX Settembre also sold all 500 million euro of Btp maturing in September 2014 indexed to inflation in the euro area at a rate of 3,2%. After the auction, the spread between ten-year BTPs and German Bunds narrowed to 415 points with a rate of return of 6,09%.
Il incoming message from the Fed (rates at or near zero until December 2014, a possible QE 3 to reflate the markets) revives the stock exchanges but does not arouse enthusiasm overseas. “The Fed lets us know – headlines the New York Times – that we still have to wait some years for the economy to recover”. The central bank's projections, awaiting the news of the forecasts of the individual board members which will be announced at 20 pm tonight, speak of a GDP growth rate of 2,5% for 2012, 3,2% per year next, by 4% for 2014. Too little, it is the sentence, to restart the employment machine.
In the current situation we have to go ahead with the consolidation of the accounts, which is not only necessary in itself but "also a condition for returning to growth": this is what EU President Herman Van Rompuy says in the letter inviting the leaders EU at the summit on Monday.
Meanwhile Charles Dallara, the director general of the International Financial Institute (IIF), he returns today to Athens accompanied by a team of experts, to resume negotiations on the restructuring of the Greek debt. “The experts – said in a statement from the IIF – will help in solving the technical and legal problems linked to the agreement for the voluntary exchange of bonds of the Greek state in private hands". Any agreement between the parties to cut the debt should, according to the director of the IIF, be in line with the agreement of 26 October and should not exceed 50%. Apparently the objectives of the negotiations between Greece and its private creditors at this point are two: their conclusion by Monday 30 January, the day of the forthcoming European summitand debt sustainability. On this last one, Greece has two important allies, the International Monetary Fund and Germany, which insist on a rate below 3%, otherwise the Greek debt, as they claim, will not be sustainable for 2020, as envisaged by the agreement of 26 October last year.
In Milan the anticipated spring of the banks continues, also due to the confirmation that the revision of the Basel 3 criteria is underway. In particular, the race continues MontePaschi +4,54%, Pop. Milan scores + 4,2%, Ubi + 5,14%, Banco Popolare + 4,14%. Intesa and Unicredit rose respectively by 2,35 and 2%.
Among the insurance companies, Generali salt by 0,7%. Unipol + 4,6% and Fondiaria-Sai + 3,2% share regained%. The crude Wti dates above $100: Eni is unchanged, Tenaris -2,5% after the downgrading to neutral by Mediobanca. Finmeccanica has been awarded new contracts for a total value of approximately 120 million euro through the subsidiary Selex Sistemi Integrati. Two orders concern the Italian mission in Afghanistan, a note announces. The first contract, signed with the Italian Ministry of Defence, concerns the enhancement of the level of protection of the Italian operational bases and support bases operating in Afghanistan.
