The stock markets are shaking after the words of Lael Brainard, vice president of the Fed. The US central bank, anticipates the banker, will not only increase rates, but "as soon as possible" will begin to cut the institution's balance sheet, or to reduce the large liquidity (9 trillion dollars) which fuels inflation and speculation. Meanwhile, the duel on sanctions continues: today the EU will block Moscow's coal (4% of energy turnover) which, due to US vetoes on the use of funds, is heading towards default. But Putin is preparing to react with the "battle of wheat": the drop in exports threatens dramatic consequences for the poor, as well as new inflationary pressures.
Carnival +8%, best stock on Wall Street
In the midst of so many misfortunes, the desire for normality of markets and consumers stands out. Yesterday, immediately after the removal of all bans on the movement of passengers, the cruise giant Carnival announced the historic record of bookings, shot up by double digits, while on Wall Street the title rose by 8%. However, the desire to travel (and to spend) collides with formidable financial and psychological constraints.
Yields also rise in Australia, Caixin at lows
Even Asia pays a price for Brainard's warning, and moreover on the eve of the Fed's minutes. Government bonds are down, especially those of Australia and New Zealand: the 2017-year Canberra bond reaches its highest level since 2,96 11% yield, +XNUMX basis points.
Stock exchanges, including those that reopened after the holidays earlier in the week, are down. Tokyo Nikkei -1,8%. CSI 300 of Shanghai price lists -0,5%. Hong Kong's Hang Seng -1,4%. Kospi of Seoul -0,5%.
Indications on economic activity in China released tonight show that the system is "in the contraction phase". The PMI Composite by IHS Markit and Caixin, a survey based on the expectations of purchasing managers of medium-sized companies, fell to a two-year low, at 43,9 points.
Still on Twitter. Musk invited to the board
Miss Brainard's warning hit Wall Street hard, causing waves of sales on the finale. The Nasdaq closed down 2,3%, S&P500 -1,5% yesterday evening. Down -0,8%.
Twitter still on the rise (+2%), which invited Elon Musk (leading shareholder with 9,2%) to join the board.
Futures are down slightly this morning. 2019-year Treasury notes on highs since 2,61: this morning we are at 5%, +XNUMX basis points.
Dollar runs, T bonds at 2,61%
Strong appreciation of the dollar on almost all counterparties. The euro dollar was down 0,6% in yesterday's close, this morning it is at 1,089, on the lows of the last three weeks.
WTI oil is trading at $101,5 a barrel this morning. Brent $106.
Pending the Fed minutes, Btp yields soar
Stock markets fall, bond yields soar. It is the picture at the end of a session marked by the imminent sanctions against Russia and by the words of Brainard. And so, while awaiting the publication today of the minutes of the last meeting of the Fed, the leap forward of the 2,26-year BTP, which jumped to 1,61%, the highest for two years, is not surprising. The spread on the Bund, which rose to 163%, widened up to XNUMX points.
France, the right recovers. The Oats are shaking
The French Oat is also suffering in view of the first round of the presidential elections. The nervousness is justified by the trend that sees Le Pen in a strong recovery and Macron put in difficulty by the McKinsey scandal, with the possibility that the polls underestimate the vote for the leader of the Right. The death of a young Jew, already presented as an accident, would actually be an anti-Semitic attack.
The abundance of supply weighs heavily: the EU has placed a 6 billion twenty-year green bond with reservations for 78 billion.
Today the Treasury will launch an operation reserved for specialists in which three bonds will be offered with maturities of 10 and 30 years for a maximum amount of 2,5 billion.
Today the Russian coal blockade
Meanwhile, the EU is preparing for the effect of the fifth wave of sanctions. The Member States of the European Union have agreed to end all coal imports from Russia. This was announced by German Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock: “The answer to these war crimes now, with the fifth European-wide sanctions package, must be that we as the European Union must completely eliminate Russia's dependence on fossil energy. , starting with coal, then oil and then gas”.
The benchmark coal future for Europe is up 7%. Russia supplies 70 percent of the coal consumed by the EU for 36 million tons.
European tanks are on the way to help Kiev
Not only. When asked about Ukraine's request to send tanks, the German minister added that EU members are willing to export other war systems to Ukraine, including those that have not been sent before. Ukraine says it needs tanks to push Russia out of its territory rather than just defending current fighting lines.
Milan in red, the worst is Paris
Piazza Affari falls by 0,86% to 24.960 basis points. Paris -1,28%, Frankfurt -0,68% and Amsterdam -0,24%. Madrid +1,19% and London +0,69%.
Worth noting is the leap forward of Vestas (+10,7%), the Danish giant of wind turbines, promoted by Credit Suisse after the total abandonment of fossil fuels.
Health stocks escape downwards in Piazza Affari. Recordati (+3,5%) leads the race ahead of Diasorin (+1,8%) and Amplifon (+0,70%). Campari stands out among the defensive stocks (+2,14%). Equita Sin raised the target price of the stock by 10% to 12,1 euro, confirming the buy recommendation.
Among the insurance companies Unipol +2,49%: promoted to outperform by Exane Paribas, it took the place of Generali (-0,445%) in terms of investor approval.
Pelliccioli: sos if Caltagirone wins
But the race for the summit of Leo continues with no holds barred. Yesterday Lorenzo Pelliccioli, CEO of De Agostini and longtime adviser to Leone took the field: the plan of the Caltagirone group, according to him, lacks clarity. “A victory for the list proposed by Caltagirone would be alarming,” Pellicioli told Bloomberg. Replication of the Caltagirone front: "disconcerting" statements, given that De Agostini has already anticipated his exit from the company. Meanwhile, after Consob, even Ivass has acquitted the pacts: there is no risk of concert between Caltagirone, Delfin and the Crt foundation.
Bad cars and chips. Telecom: the takeover catchphrase ends
Bad day for the industry. Cars are down, starting with Stellantis (-3,6%) and Iveco (-4,17%). Stm (-5,3%) and Interpump (-5,17%) did even worse. Pirelli also closes in the red (-1,54%) despite the promotion of Citigroup. Telecom -0,9%. The possibility of the American fund Kkr launching a takeover bid seems to have faded and the title continues to fall decisively below the 0,505 euro offered in November by the US fund. KKR, in a letter, announced it cannot confirm its 10,8 billion euro offer unless the Italian telecom giant provides access to its books for due diligence.
