Thirty per cent. Less than one in three French people believes in Emmanuel Macron today, the youngest president of the French Republic, elected in May 2017 and who after almost a year and a half in office managed to equal – negatively – the consensus of his predecessor, Francois Hollande, considered in turn as one of the least loved presidents by the French. The 40-year-old from Amiens, who had started his adventure with much more enthusiasm and who is still considered one of the few anti-populist bulwarks in Europe, saw his popularity drop by a further percentage point in September (according to Elabe polls for Les Echos) after the summer disaster, when due to the Benalla affair and the resignation of two very popular ministers (Hulot at the Environment and Flessel at Sport) trust in him had dropped by 5 percentage points, even worsening the Hollande's score at the same time of the legislature.
The poverty plan and the health plan were of little use, both launched in September and anticipating a maneuver that will be decisive, a few months before the Europeans: a few days ago the resignation of the interior minister, Gerard Collomb, has again complicated things for Macron. Above all, they have once again given the impression of something broken, of a government that is falling apart (the interior proxies were assumed ad interim by Prime Minister Edouard Philippe, who also fell to 36% approval rating), as if not even the ruling class believed more in an increasingly isolated leader: if in fact it can be considered physiological that only 22% of the most popular electorate likes the tenant of the Elysée, it is decidedly more worrying to note that – again according to the polls by Les Echos – the trust of French high society (managers, entrepreneurs, state officials) it dropped to 37%, from 63% just three months ago. And this despite France's victory at the World Cup: it will seem silly, but in 1998 the feat of Zidane and his companions earned the then president Chirac a peak approval rating of 67%.
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In September Macron tried to reverse course by throwing the expected poverty plan, promised in autumn 2017 and finally realized. An 8 billion investment spread over four years, focused above all on childhood and based on three main axes: crèches accessible to all (with free breakfasts and lunches for 1 euro in the most disadvantaged areas) and compulsory schooling up to 18 years; reintegration into the labor market; simplification of welfare and more access to medical care. As for medical care, the former banker of the Rothschilds subsequently also presented the health plan: overcoming the limited number and therefore more doctors, with greater coverage of the territory even in the most remote areas, and access to private care which will have to become the exception, between now and 2022. The budget is 3,4 billion in total , of which almost 1 billion intended only for investment in hospitals. Which, until now financed for two thirds on the basis of quantitative criteria, will now be rewarded for quality, with a bonus allocated that rises from 60 to 300 million euros. Then the new figure of medical assistants will be born, to work alongside general practitioners with administrative and nursing tasks: they will be 4.000 and will cost 50.000 euros a year each.
However, all this - for now - is not enough for Macron, to whom even his own electorate is turning its back. Among the voters in the first round of the 2017 presidential elections (when Macron took 24%), 70% still believe him, but also considering the voters on the ballot, when two-thirds of the French preferred him to Marine Le Pen, the percentage drops at 50%. The backlash announced a few days ago on pensions was also of little use: pending the actual reform, frozen for the next two years, the government has decided to exempt a small number of pensioners from the increase in contributions (300.000 out of the total of 7,5 million), at a cost of 2,5 billion for the state coffers. To support these investments, Paris has announced a deficit/GDP ratio of 2019% for 2,8, after the 2,6% forecast for the end of 2018. An "overshoot" for now considered sustainable, waiting for it to produce some significant effect in terms of consensus and bring the French leader back to the helm of the pro-European challenge.
A challenge that Macron has repeatedly taken up and relaunched: “Do the populists see me as their main opponent? They are right,” said the head of En Marche at the end of August, responding remotely to a provocation from Salvini. His ambitions for Europe, listed a year ago in a speech at the Sorbonne, are numerous: a budget for the Eurozone; fiscal and social convergence; a common defence; the management of asylum for migrants; a tax on financial transactions; fiscal integration of the French and German markets as an example for the rest of the continent; the cessation of subsidies to countries that do not respect the rule of law. Precisely like Orbán's Hungary, who instead wants to reduce Europe to an intergovernmental organization in charge of guaranteeing freedom of movement, closing the borders to migrants and paying the structural funds. But to carry out the projects - on the one hand the "castration" of the Union according to Orbán and on the other its expansion according to Macron - it is necessary to have the greatest number of MEPs. The spring vote will therefore be decisive for Macron and for Europewhich has to fight for its survival.
