For now, the West has chosen the path of "soft" sanctions against Russia. And the Stock Exchanges, especially Milan, were pleased. Yesterday too, in fact, Piazza Affari was the list of records: the FtseMib index + 2,5% approached 21 points. Meanwhile, thanks to the rally in the last few sessions, Enel has become the best blue chip in the Eurostoxx 50 since the beginning of 2014, with a gain of 27%, overtaking another stock on the Stock Exchange, Intesa San Paolo, which stops at +21%. In third place Unicredit +20%.
The outcome of Matteo Renzi's German mission certainly contributed to the boom. Chancellor Angela Merkel has expressed strong support for the economic reforms announced by Italian Prime Minister Matteo Renzi which, she hinted, represent a good balance between the need to boost growth and consolidate public finances. The markets' attention is now shifting to Washington where the first meeting of the Fed's monetary committee chaired by Janet Yellen will begin in a few hours.
In Asia, meanwhile, the equity market rally continued this morning. In Tokyo, the Nikkei index rebounds over 1,5%. All the other indices, including Hong Kong and Shanghai, were positive, both up by half a percentage point. On the first day of broadband trading, the Chinese currency fell by 1,1%.
Galloping session on Wall Street: the Dow Jones is up 1,13%, S&P +0,96%, Nasdaq +0,81%. American industrial production in February, surprisingly rose by 0,6%, against expectations of +0,2%. Of note is the advance of Yahoo! + 3,3% after the news that Alibaba, of which the US company has 24%, would be ready to go public within the next month. According to Reuters, the entire Chinese e-commerce giant Alibaba is valued at around $128 billion. At these prices, the stake held by Yahoo! in Alibaba, it could be worth 30,7 billion dollars. Today the US company capitalizes on a total of 39 billion.
Positive day also for the Old Continent. The London Stock Exchange rose by 0,7%, Paris +1,3%, Frankfurt +1,3%, Madrid +1,6%. In Moscow, the Micex index recovered 3,74%. The btp/bund spread settled at 180, down by 5 points but above the Spanish bonos which recorded a negative variation of 4 points to 175. The prices of safe haven assets are deflating. Gold, after exceeding 1.390 at the end of the week, is traded at 1.361 dollars an ounce (-0,87%). On the oil market, Brent fell by 1,1% to 106,6 dollars a barrel, Wti to 97,7 dollars (-1,1%). The euro/dollar exchange rate fluctuates around 1,392.
FED, THE RULES CHANGE WITH YELLEN
There is great anticipation for the Federal Reserve meeting which will conclude tomorrow with a press conference by Janet Yellen. The markets assume that the new FOMC team will begin with a new cut in market purchases, destined to fall to 55 billion/month. But the focus is on new guidelines for central bank action. The unemployment rate, in fact, is 6,7%, now very close to the target declared by Ben Bernanke at the beginning of the last phase of Quantitative Easing (6,5%). Hence the need to indicate a new target to be achieved to which to link the strategy of keeping rates low. It is probable that the new forward guidance is based on three elements: the continuation, albeit slowing down, of the purchases of securities for 2014; the overrun to bring inflation back to 2 per cent; more indicators, not just the unemployment rate, to be taken into account to measure the labor market, with particular attention to the long-term unemployed.
PIONEER PUSHES UNICREDIT. WAIT IS RISING FOR THE AGREEMENT PLAN
The rush of lenders does not stop. Unicredit, which rose by 5,5% after the rumors in the Financial Times about the forthcoming listing/sale of the subsidiary Pioneer, an asset management company, was the sprinter. According to the newspaper, the division could be valued at between two and three billion euros. Unicredit had attempted to sell Pioneer in 2010 to the French Amundi.
The other banks are doing well too: Intesa +0,8% while the first rumors emerge on the business plan which will be presented on 28 March. Asset management is in the spotlight: the merger between Fideuram and Intesa Sanpaolo Private could give rise to a group of at least European dimensions, with assets under management to date equal to 160 billion euro, but which could rise to around 200 billion also thanks to some acquisitions.
MontePaschi +3,4%, Banca Popolare Milano +2,7%. Banco Popolare +1,74%. From the communications to Consob on the significant shareholdings it emerges that Goldman Sachs and Norges Bank have each bought a stake of just over 2%. The American investment bank has accumulated a 2,11% stake, by way of asset management, the Norwegian central bank has bought a 2,346% stake. The two become the second and third respectively. UBS remains the first shareholder with 3,84%. The stock has gained approximately 24% since the beginning of 2014.
Insurance advances. Generali gained 1,3%. The Swiss Julius Baer is once again evaluating Banca della Svizzera italiana (BSI), a company controlled by Generali, for a possible acquisition. UnipolSai +2,7%, has reached an agreement to sell a series of former Milano Assicurazioni assets to Allianz for €440m.
Azimut + 2,3% entered the Turkish market thanks to an agreement with Notus Portfoy Yonetimi which provides for a shareholders' agreement to initiate a partnership in the asset management sector in Turkey.
ENEL AT THE TOP. PRUDENT ANALYST ON A2A'S SPARKS
Electric chills in Piazza Affari. Enel's rise continued +3,7%, becoming the best blue chip in the Eurostoxx 50 index since the beginning of 2014. A2A continues to amaze which, after the calculations, has achieved a leap of 7%: the utility Lombarda closed 2013 with a net book profit of 62 million, after write-downs of thermoelectric assets for 267 million, from a profit of 260 million in 2012. The board will propose a coupon of 0,033 euros, up from 0,026 euros the previous year.
Analysts are somewhat cautious, but the market does not seem to hold against it. In particular, Fidentiis confirmed the Sell, raising the target range to 0,7/0,8 euros from 0,54/0,56 euros. Kepler-Cheuvreux maintained the Hold judgment, adjusting the target price to 0,90 euros from 0,87 euros. Similar judgment for the Equita analysts who brought the target to 1,03 euro from one euro. Banca IMI has left everything as before, recommendation Add (accumulate) and target at 1,05 euro. In total, out of 10 analysts surveyed by Bloomberg, only 2 recommend buying. The average target is set at 0,86 euros, well below today's quotation.
ENI RELAUNCHES THE BUY BACK TO 10% OF THE CAPITAL
Eni + 0,93%. The Board has decided to postpone the possible sale of Saipem's drilling assets pending the appointments. Instead, it was decided that the board of directors will propose to the shareholders' meeting convened for May 8 in single call a buyback of up to a maximum of 363 million ordinary shares, equal to approximately 10% of the share capital, for a maximum amount of 6 billion euros, at a unit price of no less than 1,102 euros. The BoD, which approved Eni's consolidated financial statements and draft financial statements for 2013, which respectively close with net profits of 5.160 million euros and 4.410 million euros, (as already announced on February 13) it also resolved to submit the adoption of a new 2014-2016 long-term monetary incentive plan to the approval of the Shareholders' Meeting. The BoD also approved the issue of one or more bonds for a maximum total amount of 1,5 billion.
THE RISK OF TLC INFLAMES TELECOM
Telecom Italia gained 3,9% on the wave of the purchase of the Spanish Ono by Vodafone for 7,2 billion euros which has reopened the risk hypotheses on telecommunications in Europe. Operators are betting on forthcoming aggressive moves by Liberty Media, At&t and developments in the French market after Numericabel's landing in Sfr.
In the meantime, the times are tightening for the presentation by Friday 22 March of the lists for the renewal of the board to be considered by the shareholders' meeting on 16 April. The composition of the candidates for Telco shareholders will be finalized tomorrow in a meeting of the board of the holding company. This morning the dossier will be brought to the attention of Mediobanca's nomination committee. The expectation is that the large shareholders will in any case aim for a super partes candidacy that is also appreciated by the minorities. Among the names circulated, that of the president of the Borsa Massimo Tononi, of the number one of ENI Giuseppe Recchi and of the former minister Francesco Profumo, now president of Iren.
PIRELLI-ROSNEFT, SPECULATIVE APPEAL DOWN
Pirelli fell by 2,2% after the announcement of the agreement which sees the Russian Rosneft enter the shareholding of Camfin (it will take 50%): the market was hoping for a direct entry into the capital of the tire group. The new agreements will have a duration of 5 years, renewable upon expiry. "The agreement reinforces Marco Tronchetti Provera's positioning compared to that of the financial institutions that joined the company a year ago", comment the experts of Banca Akros in a note (rating hold and target price of 11 euro confirmed on the stock). For Mediobanca Securities (outperform and target price at 14 euro) the speculative appeal of the stock is "significantly" reduced. the transaction values Pirelli 12 euros, the share closed at 11,77.
FINMECCANICA PREPARES THE POST F 35 CUTS
The other industrial stocks were positive. Fiat rose by 3,2%. Finmeccanica +6,2% after rumors of a cost-cutting plan. Alessandro Pansa would be thinking of further cost containment action with the aim of saving between 24/36 million gross euros in the next 600/900 months when fully operational, capable of more than compensating for a possible cut in the F35 order from current 130 to 90 which could have a negative impact on the group's turnover of around 200/300 million euros per year. (Finmeccanica boasts a turnover of approximately 16 billion in 2013). StM+2,4%.
In luxury, Yoox rebounded +3%, after closing the worst week since 2011 (-12,5%). Ferragamo -0,1%. Credit Suisse confirmed the Underperform recommendation and cut the target price to 21 euros from 24 euros. Swiss analysts cut their earnings estimates for the 2014-2016 period by an average of 4%.
EQUITA SENDS RCS INTO ORBIT
Rcs Mediagroup is starting to close up by 7,4% at 1,8 euro and returns to price levels it has not seen since July 2013. Equita has promoted the stock to Buy from Reduce (lighten). Since the beginning of 2014, the stock has gained 35%. Lastly, among the mid/small caps, Servizi Italia +3,6%, following an agreement to enter the Indian market, should be noted. TxT e-Solutions +9%.
