The marked improvement in business and consumer confidence suggests that the country is now on a path of growth. More than the (still weak) macroeconomic results, it is the season of reforms undertaken by the Government that reinforces the positive signals thanks to reforms with strong expected effects on the real economy, such as the Job Act, the Public Administration, the institutional set-up and soon the tax system and the start of the spending review.
In the 3rd quarter, GDP grew by 0,4% and the estimate of growth of at least 0,9% in 2015, estimated by the Government and the IMF, is consolidated; unemployment falls below 12% for the first time after several years, the public accounts show a reduction in the overall debt, a primary surplus equal to 3,9% of GDP, the reduction of the deficit to 2,6% (and perhaps even less).
However, growth remains weak, albeit driven by the excellent performance of exports but held back by the pathological stagnation of labor productivity (-0,5% over the decade) which keeps unit labor costs high (+34%) .
But theThe main reason for the "weak recovery" lies in the persistence of a country within itself. In the last seven years, GDP and employment in the South have been six times higher than in the Centre-North. Paradoxically, an Italy without the South would grow today at a rate of at least 2% and would have exited the recession earlier.
The delays in the South can be seen in an (official) rate of activity of 53% (which drops to 40% for women) compared to a national average of 62%, in the worrying spread of undeclared work and illegality, in the flight of young towards more attractive destinations, in the inability to grasp the increase in foreign demand, in the demographic collapse. The post-crisis years were the worst for the South, accentuating the gaps with the rest of the country.
It is, therefore, evident that the fate of growth and its consolidation depend on the South. The announced Masterplan for the South (we hope) will have to outline effective actions to promote development on new bases.
There are many successful experiences in the development of depressed areas which show how investment in human capital and innovation are the useful ingredients for increasing trust, accountability and the creation of a livable and attractive external environment. Human capital and innovation are the most appropriate mix to increase productivity and encourage the attraction of investments.
The positive glimmers that are showing tepidly in the South favor small businesses engaged in the valorisation of local resources, but they are not sufficient to attract new investments. The announced Master Plan for the South must take advantage of these "little lights" to launch measures that are no longer welfare but capable of stimulating virtuous behavior by local authorities, citizens and businesses. The lack of credibility of local authorities and the widespread illegality are, in fact, among the main obstacles to development, unresolved by the unification of Italy. There are no magic recipes.
Some examples for a new approach centered on reward and incentive mechanisms to those who will undertake to achieve objectives judged virtuous. Illegality, undeclared work and undeclared work must be fought not only by introducing zero tolerance for serious crimes such as labor exploitation, pollution, petty crime, but also by extending the tax deductibility from the taxable income of professional services and supplies so as to favor their emergence.
To focus on human capital, it is first of all necessary to focus on the improvement of secondary education: a program for the creation of model secondary schools (let's say 1000) is an investment of high social significance but also of considerable economic value which lays the foundations for a long-term endogenous growth. Those "virtuous" Municipalities which, if they undertake to invest in education, would be authorized to breach the constraints of the stability pact.
Research, innovation and business are the other pillar of the development and mobilization of young people. Companies which, together with university centers of excellence, will invest in R&D would benefit from a corresponding tax credit. And then it is necessary to attract new investments in delimited areas and already equipped with reception infrastructures, introducing a facilitated flat tax (between 10 and 15%) all-inclusive of all tax and social security charges, in addition to consolidating the benefits provided for by the Job Act. to facilitate access to credit for SMEs and start-ups, on the one hand it is necessary to strengthen the Guarantee Fund and on the other to accompany nascent business projects with the use of microfinance.
Giving a decisive turn to the enhancement of the resources of which the South is rich is certainly not an easy thing given the proliferation of clientelisms and localisms. To launch measures of great impact, the use of European co-financing must be conditional on the implementation of major projects involving a significant number of Regions, such as the one that is so much talked about on the enhancement of minor port facilities integrated with artistic-archaeological and tourist resources in the hinterlands competence.
Finally, the infrastructures, the age-old dolens point, concentrating resources only on the implementation of priority interventions such as the Naples-Bari-Brindisi railway connection or the modernization of the main ports for the movement of goods (Naples, Gioia Tauro, Brindisi, Palermo, Catania and Cagliari).
Southern Italy is a challenge that must be faced decisively to prevent the spread of degradation and marginalization with unpredictable social and political consequences. It is also a "mine" of growth for the entire country.
