“Before, they accused us of being too rigid. Today to be too soft. In reality, the Commission intends to apply Basel 3 with balance”. With these words to the Financial Times Michel Barnier, EU commissioner for financial services, indirectly confirmed the scoop of the British newspaper which has been supporting the trend of the "financial" sector since this morning: EU banks will be able to avoid part of the more stringent rules on capital taxes from Basel III. Thanks to this propellant, European stock markets were able to overcome two obstacles: the downward revision of the outlook on Japan by Fitch, which caused only a slight and temporary drop in the indices; the impact of some economic data arriving from the USA which confirm the slowdown in the overseas economy. Consumption, in particular, grew by only a modest 0,4 per cent, under the pressure of the increase in the cost of petrol (a very important psychological indicator for American families). Numbers of this kind on Friday, up until a few weeks ago, triggered sharp falls in price lists, starting with New York, accompanied by the rise in the dollar, perceived as a safe haven. The exact opposite of what happened yesterday, at the beginning of the long weekend (the stock exchanges will remain closed on Monday in both the US and the UK). The reason? The prevailing feeling is that the G8 summit in Deauville could bear good fruit; moreover, as the report on the banking system of Citigroup underlines, after the massive sell-offs of the last few weeks, the banking stocks already incorporate the potential losses for the Greek stocks in the portfolio. Third, markets are watching the weakening US economy with pleasure. This is the signal that the Fed will not introduce restrictive measures on the cost of money: deflation is more frightening than inflation.
MEDIOBANCA SUPERSTAR THANKS TO BASEL
This explains the finally positive day of the banks in Piazza Affari, the real protagonists of a session that is about to close with a rise in the Ftse / Mib of 0,76%, in line with the Frankfurt Dax (+0,68%) but below the performance of the London FTSE (+1,12%) and the Parisian Cac 40 (+1,07%). Leading the race was Mediobanca (+2,6 percent) one of the stocks potentially most favored by the new Basel 3 criteria which allow for the equity investments held in insurance companies to be considered as capital. Thanks to this news, which concerns the 13,4% held in Generali by Piazzetta Cuccia, the core tier 1, already today at the level of 11,33%, will rise by another 300 bp.
Closely followed in the ranking of the most popular securities by Banca Intesa (+1,8%) which will benefit from the assessment of its insurance companies and Unicredit (+2,8). In this case, the "gift" of Basel 3 consists in being able to allow banks to consider hybrid products issued before next July as capital. See, in the case of Unicredit, the cashes for 3 billion which will be the subject of an extraordinary board of directors, convened on Monday to adapt the product to the characteristics agreed with the Bank of Italy. Among the banks involved in forthcoming capital increases, both Ubi (+ 2%) and Mps (+1%) closed in positive territory.
Finally, the recovery of the euro against the dollar (1,426) is significant, while the single currency remains weak against the Swiss franc (1,221). Brent (115,30 dollars + 0,30) and gold (1524 dollars an ounce) did not move much while the price of silver rose (37,90 dollars + 1,70).
BREMBO DOESN'T BRAKE, IT ACCELERATES
Among the industrial stocks, the progress of Pirelli (+0,9%) continues, while Fiat has not benefited particularly from the news of a recent meeting in Turin with the top staff of Suzuki, visiting the Italdesign in Turin under the Mole Goirgio Giugiaro, now controlled by Volkswagen, a partner of the Asian group. Brembo is much appreciated (+3%) after the strengthening of the production and commercial bases in South America, perhaps the most effervescent market for the brakes of the Bergamo-based group. And in the afternoon, Prysmian shares also rose in positive territory, thanks to the confirmation of the Overweight indicated in a report by Morgan Stanley which also reduced the target price from 20,6 to 20 euros. Among the small caps, the rebound of Prelios is foreseeable (+2%) after the go-ahead from the Court of Milan for the sale of La Rinascente to Thai buyers. The landslide of Maire Tecnimont, also yesterday bringing up the rear of the list, risks becoming a habit; since January the loss has exceeded 60 percent.
At European level. Lastly, the construction and Oil & Gas sectors performed well (+1,2% for both Eni and Enel), with a slight decline in technology.
WALL STREET TO CLOSE WITH CONFIDENCE.
The US consumer confidence index from the University of Michigan was better than expected. The news reinforced the upward trend: Dow Jones and Nasdaq rose by 0,4%, the S&P by 0,5. On the other side of the Atlantic it was also a lucky day for banks, starting with JO Morgan (+1,6%) and Bank of America (+1,4%). Among the blue chips, the good day of Walt Disney and Hewlett Packard stands out.
