In the Country Report published last January, atradius states that, by virtue of the collapse of internal demand, Italian exports will assume growing importance during this year, contributing more than 2% to the country's economic growth. After a positive balance of 3,1 billion euros in 2011, following the deficit of previous years, net exports were estimated at 36,6 billion in 2012 and 39,3 billion this year. Despite what many might think, this is a sign of weakness.
Indeed, in the last two years, Italy has lost about 20% of its export quota, mostly represented but European markets. The fact that the levels of exports in monetary terms do not give positive answers is clearly visible if one looks at the real effective exchange rate, which measures the international competitiveness of a country with respect to changes in costs and prices of a given area. And although, in absolute terms, Italy still occupies a favorable position in the European scenario, the comparison with neighboring markets, such as the French one, is nonetheless merciless. The performance of Italian exports, therefore, will suffer further as soon as international demand moves towards more competitive and less expensive markets.
Due to the deteriorating economic environment, estimates relating to corporate insolvencies for 2012 have been seen upwards (+15%). From a geographical point of view, the central and southern regions appear to be the most affected compared to the northern ones, due to the deterioration of the main method of financing in the area, i.e. the subsidized rate. In this sense, 2013 will see a further increase in insolvencies (+5%) due to the economic contraction, austerity measures and the tightening of credit disbursed by banking institutions, without forgetting the increase in the prices of energy resources.
This scenario, in lack of adequate and timely industrial, administrative and energy policies by the government that will come out of the next elections, capable of guaranteeing and stimulating the disbursement of credit to businesses, will only be able to further undermine Italy's competitiveness in the global market.
