The rate hike is approaching, Janet Yellen openly hints. But the markets don't seem scared. Indeed, the danger from China, which in September had suggested to the Fed to postpone the move, now seems to have passed. The Bull, in fact, has now returned to the office in Asia. The Shanghai Stock Exchange gained 2% this morning, adding to yesterday's +4,3%. From the lows of August, the price list rises by 20%, thus crossing the threshold of the Bull Market. The leap forward is favored by the belief that the Dragon's economy has now reached a sort of new equilibrium with growth of around 7% "protected" by the measures of the authorities.
Stock market also up in Tokyo (+0,9%), favored by the rise in the dollar. The US currency is trading at 1,0856 against the euro. Wall Street is lagging behind after the recent increases: Dow Jones - 0,3%, S&P 500 -0,4%, Nasdaq by 0,1%. The mini slowdown is due to the downward correction of oil, after the weekly data on US inventories: Brent slipped by more than 3% to 48,6 dollars a barrel, well below the 50 regained the day before, and the Wti at $46,32.
After the closure, the accounts of Facebook arrived, which exceeded the threshold of one billion in active profits in the quarter. The stock rose 3,8% in the after hours. Of great importance, also psychological, is the leap of the electric car champion, Tesla +11% on the day of the new thud by Volkswagen (-9,5%), already leader of the traditional market.
YELLEN: THE CHANGE WILL BE GRADUAL
Janet Yellen dominated the attention, much clearer and more explicit than usual: "The markets should focus on the rate hike path, which will be extremely gradual, rather than on the first hike". The Fed chairman's tone and words in Congress yesterday convinced even the most skeptical that, barring sensational surprises, everything is ready for the cost of money to be adjusted upwards, the first in eight years. But that will not be a turning point: the policy of the US central bank will remain expansive.
The forecasts were strengthened by data from the real economy which, Yellen underlined, "is going well": in October the number of employed people in the private sector grew by 182 units, 2 more than analysts' forecasts. The month before, the growth had been 190 new jobs. Good indications also from the manufacturing ISM: in October it rose to 59,1 points, from 56,9 in the previous month, definitely above analysts' estimates, equal to 56,5 points. Now the appointment is with the labor market data arriving tomorrow. A certain volatility of the markets is not excluded.
BRAKE MILAN. DOWN FRANKFURT
Europe uncertain. Supporting the Old Continent's stock markets is the expectation of new monetary stimuli in Europe from the ECB. On the other hand, the new Volkswagen shock and the weakness of the banking sector depressed the good mood. The closure in Milan yesterday was negative: the FtseMib index settles down by 0,6%. Frankfurt did worse (-1%). Paris and Madrid closed by 0,2%.
DOWN UNDERSTAND. BOB DIAMOND WANTS TO BLOW ARK TO SOUL
In fact, the disappointment of Banca Intesa's accounts (-2,1%) still weighs on the market, which opened the season of quarterly credit reports with results judged to be mediocre, partly offset by the promise of higher dividends. The examination of credit groups will continue tomorrow with Monte Paschi's accounts (-1,28%). The key day will be Tuesday 10 when the board meetings of Carige, Bpm and Banco Popolare will be held (+0,77%). The presentation of the Unicredit business plan (+0,26%) will be held on Wednesday 11.
According to Standard & Poor's, expected growth in Italy in 2015 and 2016, after a long and deep recession, will be limited overall and insufficient to translate into a material improvement in banks' credit profiles.
Sales of asset management securities on the eve of the board meetings of Azimut (-1,9%) and Mediolanum (-1,01%). The US investment company Atlas Merchant Capital headed by the former CEO of Barclays Bob Diamond presented a non-binding offer for Arca, the asset management company in which several cooperative banks participate, valuing it at around one billion euros. Feel the blow Anima (-4,8%), interested in the acquisition.
TELECOM MAKES A SBOOM: THE BOD ON THE ACCOUNTS TODAY
The speculative appeal on Telecom Italia fades (-3,6%) after the Consob hearing of Xavier Niel. The French businessman said he has no immediately available shares or voting rights and did not act in concert with others when he built his long position on the 15,14% stake. Vivendi also said it is not moving in coordination with other partners to prepare the ground for launching an offer.
The French media conglomerate has a 20,1% stake in the telephone operator. All this will be discussed on the sidelines of the board of directors who today will have to examine the accounts for the third quarter and take stock of the other hot dossiers: Metroweb and the possible merger in Brazil between Tim Brasil and Oì.
THE VOLKSWAGEN DRAMA CRUSHES THE AUTOMOTIVE
New nightmare session for Volkswagen (-9,5%, at 100 euros). The collapse of the Wolfsburg share was triggered this time by the report of irregularities in the CO2 emissions of 800 vehicles (98 of which with petrol engines), with preliminary estimated costs of around 2 billion euros. Then, just a few minutes after closing, the news broke that Volkswagen and its subsidiary Audi suspended the sale of all diesel models in the United States: a further element that penalized the stock, causing it to close at session lows.
With Volkswagen (which in closed markets also suffered a rating cut by Moody's) Daimler (-2%) and BMW (-1,2%) also lost ground in Frankfurt, while in Paris Peugeot left the 1,9%. In Milan, on the other hand, FCA yields 2,68%, at 13,07 euros. Both the negative indications from the Brazilian market and the rumors about the possible postponement of the Alfa Romeo relaunch plan and the weak sales of Maserati in the USA weigh heavily.
FINMECCANICA AND PRYSMIAN AWARDED
Among the happier notes stands out the rise of Finmeccanica (+1,6%), which announced better-than-expected third-quarter results. Net income for the first nine months of the year, including the transport sector, was 160 million, from a loss of 24 million in the same period of 2014. Management confirmed the 2015 targets. Prysmian rose sharply (+3,6, XNUMX%) pending quarterly results.
Among the oil companies, Saipem rose (+0,5%), despite Barclays having reduced the rating on the stock to underweight from equalweight with a target price reduced to 9 euros from 10,7 euros. Macquarie lowered the recommendation to underperform from neutral (Tp set at 7 euros). Eni (-0,7%) and Tenaris (-1,4%) fell.
LUXURY STARTS AGAIN WITH CHINA. TOD'S EXTENDS THE PACE
The recovery of the Chinese economy was immediately reflected in the trend of luxury goods. The rise of Tod's (+4%) stands out in the sector, promoted by HSBC, which raised the rating to Buy from Hold. Moncler (+1,66%), Ferragamo (+1,14%) and Luxottica (+1,13%) are also positive.
